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NCBA, R-CALF, COOL, USDA (No Politics!)
Cattlenetwork - August Beef Imports Way Up
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<blockquote data-quote="cattle_gal" data-source="post: 50624" data-attributes="member: 643"><p>Here is something to ponder on with the view that the current prices are "high". This was written in Feb of 1979.</p><p></p><p>"<em>American consumers will see no relief in beef prices for several years. It takes this much time for the cattle cycle to change.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>Strange as it seems, cattle numbers are still decreasing and perhaps will continue to do so until the latter part of this year. Dry cows are worth so much that there is still an urge to sell rather than keep them.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>When rebuilding of herds starts to take place, it will probably take about four years before the herds would increase enough to produce enough to produce an over supply.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>As long as cattlemen continue to liquidate, beef prices will probably remain at present levels. However, when producers start to restock, this will again lower supplies, which should cause the market to spurt upwards again.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>In 1950, hamburger was 50 cents per pound, while on May 1 1978, hamburger was only 89 cents per pound. In this same span, coffee rose from 69 cents to $2.95 a pound, gasoline from 24 cents to 64 cents per gallon, postage from 3 cents to 15 cents, and a congressman's salary raised from $12,300 to $57,500 a year.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>If cattle prices had risen in the same proportion as other products, we would be receiving $1 per pound to $1.20 per pound for fat steers instead of 60 cents</em>."</p><p></p><p>Also along with the article (written in Feb of 1979) was the market report. Dry cows - $40 to $50. 500 to 600 lbs steers $80. </p><p></p><p>In 1993 (midwest year average) - Dry cows $56.49, 600-700 weight steers $90.94 </p><p></p><p>If we put the current prices in to proportion with everything else currently, it is a wonder any ranchers are in business, but only because one has to make money off the ranch to support the ranch. If consumers would have the thinking that the prices are to high and stop buying the product then every other product would not be bought either. Look how much auto prices and everything else too has risen lately the past 10 or so years. Ridiculous. Can anyone remember the US people who started to say that prices are <u>too</u> high. Chances are they are the same people who have been taking advantage of the ranchers for along time. Why should one be led to believe that prices are too high. To high to what? 25 years ago? Can any other product be as far behind in inflation in comparison to everything else on the market, as is the farmer and ranchers pay off? What product can compare their prices to 25 years ago?</p><p></p><p>If the ranchers get more then they have more money to spend in the local economy(food, supplies, fertilizer,cattle, feed, machinery,ect). An economy that relies on the rancher/farmer(another reason I am against CRP). If I can I will buy at the locally(town or in state) owned stores or individuals(custom grown/made) to give them the business (sadly it's getting really hard to find those folks), not the Costco's or Wally-Worlds(who started out attracting people by saying they only have items made in the USA and then so fast changed to China). I just bet the Canadians would much rather buy/eat Canadian made/grown products than Argentinian or Brazilian or even US products.</p><p></p><p>While flipping through the tv last night there was a family show/movie and this kid said to this girl - "honesty is for those who think small". Wow how discouraging to have that said on a supposed kid friendly movie. Grab, grab, grab and cheat at any cost, forget about being trustworthy and earn what you have.</p><p></p><p>There is one factor that the 1979 article <em>did not have to </em>account for - the importing of beef.</p><p></p><p>Land prices around here, you haven't been able to even put up your place for sale at ag prices to break even for some time now, some rich urbainite will suck it up first thing(use as a playground and take out of production). I know of folks who have sold and they go buy land in easten MT and even in the Midwest with more land and/ormore productive land. </p><p></p><p>Reataining or selling. It all boils down to which is going to give you the most down the road. A few bucks more now or a lot of bucks down the road. Ahh the gambling of the cattle business strikes again. If prices stay up then your herd will be much better of retaining. If prices all of a sudden go down well sell now. It's a gamble for the cow/calf and feeder person always has been. It isn't any different than sell low and buy low. Except if you want to improve your herd then you go from selling low to buyer higher. Cull cows sell lower and young bred cows buy higher. Buying improvement is never a straight across the boards deal. Wish it was. Get a bred good young cow for the same price as a cull cow.</p><p></p><p>Forgot to add - the US cattle supply is down almost 11 million head since the 1995 count and it's not looking to be much better either. No, can't blame it on the drought either. We were in drought from 1988 to 1993 and at the end of that drought there were still 7 million more head than the 2004 count.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="cattle_gal, post: 50624, member: 643"] Here is something to ponder on with the view that the current prices are “high”. This was written in Feb of 1979. “[i]American consumers will see no relief in beef prices for several years. It takes this much time for the cattle cycle to change. Strange as it seems, cattle numbers are still decreasing and perhaps will continue to do so until the latter part of this year. Dry cows are worth so much that there is still an urge to sell rather than keep them. When rebuilding of herds starts to take place, it will probably take about four years before the herds would increase enough to produce enough to produce an over supply. As long as cattlemen continue to liquidate, beef prices will probably remain at present levels. However, when producers start to restock, this will again lower supplies, which should cause the market to spurt upwards again. In 1950, hamburger was 50 cents per pound, while on May 1 1978, hamburger was only 89 cents per pound. In this same span, coffee rose from 69 cents to $2.95 a pound, gasoline from 24 cents to 64 cents per gallon, postage from 3 cents to 15 cents, and a congressman’s salary raised from $12,300 to $57,500 a year. If cattle prices had risen in the same proportion as other products, we would be receiving $1 per pound to $1.20 per pound for fat steers instead of 60 cents[/i].” Also along with the article (written in Feb of 1979) was the market report. Dry cows - $40 to $50. 500 to 600 lbs steers $80. In 1993 (midwest year average) - Dry cows $56.49, 600-700 weight steers $90.94 If we put the current prices in to proportion with everything else currently, it is a wonder any ranchers are in business, but only because one has to make money off the ranch to support the ranch. If consumers would have the thinking that the prices are to high and stop buying the product then every other product would not be bought either. Look how much auto prices and everything else too has risen lately the past 10 or so years. Ridiculous. Can anyone remember the US people who started to say that prices are [u]too[/u] high. Chances are they are the same people who have been taking advantage of the ranchers for along time. Why should one be led to believe that prices are too high. To high to what? 25 years ago? Can any other product be as far behind in inflation in comparison to everything else on the market, as is the farmer and ranchers pay off? What product can compare their prices to 25 years ago? If the ranchers get more then they have more money to spend in the local economy(food, supplies, fertilizer,cattle, feed, machinery,ect). An economy that relies on the rancher/farmer(another reason I am against CRP). If I can I will buy at the locally(town or in state) owned stores or individuals(custom grown/made) to give them the business (sadly it’s getting really hard to find those folks), not the Costco’s or Wally-Worlds(who started out attracting people by saying they only have items made in the USA and then so fast changed to China). I just bet the Canadians would much rather buy/eat Canadian made/grown products than Argentinian or Brazilian or even US products. While flipping through the tv last night there was a family show/movie and this kid said to this girl - “honesty is for those who think small”. Wow how discouraging to have that said on a supposed kid friendly movie. Grab, grab, grab and cheat at any cost, forget about being trustworthy and earn what you have. There is one factor that the 1979 article [i]did not have to [/i]account for - the importing of beef. Land prices around here, you haven't been able to even put up your place for sale at ag prices to break even for some time now, some rich urbainite will suck it up first thing(use as a playground and take out of production). I know of folks who have sold and they go buy land in easten MT and even in the Midwest with more land and/ormore productive land. Reataining or selling. It all boils down to which is going to give you the most down the road. A few bucks more now or a lot of bucks down the road. Ahh the gambling of the cattle business strikes again. If prices stay up then your herd will be much better of retaining. If prices all of a sudden go down well sell now. It's a gamble for the cow/calf and feeder person always has been. It isn't any different than sell low and buy low. Except if you want to improve your herd then you go from selling low to buyer higher. Cull cows sell lower and young bred cows buy higher. Buying improvement is never a straight across the boards deal. Wish it was. Get a bred good young cow for the same price as a cull cow. Forgot to add - the US cattle supply is down almost 11 million head since the 1995 count and it’s not looking to be much better either. No, can’t blame it on the drought either. We were in drought from 1988 to 1993 and at the end of that drought there were still 7 million more head than the 2004 count. [/QUOTE]
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