NFL - playoffs

[Son of Butch]

More Fearless Predictions

Steelers favored by 7.5 pts = My Best Bet: Jacksonville to win and/or lose by less than 8 pts

Vikings 24
Saints 20

Sorry... gotta brag on my BEST BET pick :banana: even though I completely missed on the scoring/tempo of the game.
Looked like Saxonville was going to run the Steelers out of the stadium, then nearly blew the game... 45-42

 

[haase]

I thought that too with Wentz out, but they proved me wrong by beating the falcons, just going by the rankings, and the Vikings have to play there outside next week.

 

[Son of Butch]

Vegas opening lines are out.
New England by 9 pts over Jacksonville over/under 47 pts

Vikings 3.5 pts over Philly over/under 38.5 pts

My Initial reaction is outdoors, winter in Philly... I like the under 38.5 pts.
Vikings 20
Philly 17

Historically I love home dogs!
BUT with Nick Foles at QB... I could not touch Philly vs Atlanta
Philly is playing the "we get no respect card" and will be up for home games, so I can't bet Vikings to cover.

I may buy the Vikings a trip to the Super Bowl and bet Philly.
Happy to make money if I win... happy Vikings are back in the Super Bowl (at Home) if I lose.

Going from sad memories Vikings are 0-5 in their last 5 NFC title games and of course 0-4 in the Super Bowl.

 

[torogmc81]

What's your call on the AFC game?

 

[Son of Butch]

notable quotes after the game
TE Kyle Rudolph: What curse?

WR Steffon Diggs is listed as Doubtful for next week's game.
Reason: Still Celebrating

 

[TexasBred]

Vikings Coach Mike Zimmer always says... get me 21 points and we should win.

Cute NFL promo commercial.... Zimmer writing 10 times one the white board.

I will be NICEr to the offense.
I will be NICEr to the offense.
I will be NICEr to the offense.

Actually he writes he'll be nicer to the officials.

 

[Bestoutwest]

This weekend is why I don't bet. I think I would have lost every game except NE vs. Tenn. Great games (well, exciting at least), but I didn't see them going the way they did.

 

[Son of Butch]

Under dogs are now in a win one, lose one streak Against The Spread
Going by that line of my pure genius reasoning = first game under dog Saxonville beats the spread.

New England 28
Jacksonville 21

Bortels seemed to have found confidence yesterday, as long as he doesn't revert he is no longer a weak link.
Bilechik is great at game planning and Patriots defense is underrated. Their defensive line is playing great.

New England should be favored by at least 10.5 in my opinion, at least that is where I expected it to open.
Vegas opened them at only 9 pts
The general public is pouring money in with 65% of it coming in on the Patriots and moved the line to 9.5
Vegas knows the public loves to back the Patriots with their money... so I don't think it caught them by surprise.

Vegas is not in business to lose money, which makes me wonder why did they open on the low side...
What do they know that we don't?

 

[Son of Butch]

Vikings Coach Mike Zimmer always says... get me 21 points and we should win.

Cute NFL promo commercial.... Zimmer writing 10 times one the white board.
I will be NICEr to the offense.
I will be NICEr to the offense.
I will be NICEr to the offense.

Actually he writes he'll be nicer to the officials.

LOL - My Bad
Only saw it once and since he's a defensive coach and it's reported that he gives a lot of heat to the offense
here in Minnesota (Norv Turner choosing to leave mid season last year) my man sized brain must have inserted it.

 

[ChrisB]

I would take the under for the NFC game. I'm thinking along the lines of a 13-10 score. 2 really good defenses.

 

[ga.prime]

What about that foolishness requiring the Vikings to come back out for the PAT? It looked like only 8 or 9 Saints got back out there to defend.

 

[TexasBred]

What about that foolishness requiring the Vikings to come back out for the PAT? It looked like only 8 or 9 Saints got back out there to defend.

Wonder how much money was won or lost on them not kicking the extra point?

 

[ga.prime]

That's a good question. The bookies or the bettors?

 

[Son of Butch]

Vikings opened as 3.5 pt favorites money came in heavy on the Vikings moving the line to 4.5 it was still coming in
on Vikings and by game time it was 5.5 in an effort to get more money bet on the Saints.

Vikes won by 5, so bookmakers definitely lost money and any late money bet went on Saints at 5.5 further
hurting the bookmakers. The public did great... bookmakers got hurt by the no extra point try. (kneel down)
How many $ I don't know.

 

[ga.prime]

Son, thanks for your professional insight.

 

[Son of Butch]

The 3 heaviest bet teams last week

1. Atlanta to win by 3 (They lost by 5)
2. New England by 13 (They won by 17)
3. Pittsburgh by 7.5 (They lost by 3)

Vegas was 2-1 in their big bet games.... as I said before, they are not in business to lose money.

Jacksonville is 3.5 - 6.5 pts better than Tennessee but...
Getting New England at less than a 10 pt favorite is such a good deal that it just feels like a trap to me
I'm sticking with...
New England 28
Jacksonville 21

My BEST BET is Vikings to cover 3.5
Vikings 24
Eagles 13

Maybe I'm caught up in homer emotion and/or Super Bowl fever... but
The Vikings are a much better team than the Falcons beating them in Atlanta by 5 points 14-9
Possible the Vikings could hold Philly to single digits, but I'm a bit concerned about SS Sendejo's concussion.
Drew Brees hurt Zimmer's defense in the 2nd half, but Nick Foles is not Drew Brees or even Matt Ryan.

The Vikings offense has been hurt more than most realize with starting left guard Nick Easton breaking his leg
in the last game of the season and having to shuffle the line. I'm expecting big efforts from Diggs and Thielen.
IF not 17-13 still covers the spread.

It would be great to see the Vikings defense pitch a shut out. LOL
(but not going to happen)

 

[haase]

My best bet, when it's all said and done, Brady will be wearing ring number six.

 

[True Grit Farms]

My best bet, when it's all said and done, Brady will be wearing ring number six.

Let's hope not, even though your right.

 

[ga.prime]

My best bet, when it's all said and done, Brady will be wearing ring number six.

Let's hope not, even though your right.

I like the Patriots but I'm pulling for the Vikings from here on. I was wanting them to win those other four times they lost the super bowl.

 

[Son of Butch]

My best bet, when it's all said and done, Brady will be wearing ring number six.

I'll respectfully disagree. I see it as a poor investment, therefore not the best bet.
A better bet is Case Keenum is destined to get his 1st ring.
Sure Brady is favored, but Keenum risk return on investment makes it the smarter choice... in my opinion.

$100 bet on New England to win the Super Bowl returns $195.20
you risk losing $100 just to make a $95.20 profit and Patriots have to win 2 games to do it.

$100 on Vikings to win the Super Bowl currently returns $332
risking $100 to make $232

Straight $100 win bet on N.E to beat Jacksonville wins you only $25
Straight win bet on the Vikings over Philly $100 wins $62.50

The "Best Play" in my opinion is a 'control' parlay
$100 Vikings to beat Philly = $162.50
IF Vikings lose you sit in the corner crying while sucking your thumb... no more gambling for you.

I project N.E. will be in the Super Bowl and the money line for a win bet on Vikings will be 2.20 (or better)

IF Vikings beat Philly parlay the $162.50 on the Vikings to win
$162.50 x 2.2 = $357.50
risking $100 to make $257.50
rather than the current $100 to make $232

Of course IF Jacksonville is in the Super Bowl then the current wager returning $232 would be the better option
as a $162 win bet on the Vikings will return much less than $232

The main disadvantage to a "Control Parlay" is nearly all the gamblers I know don't have the control to execute it.
IF it goes off the tracks by losing the 1st game, most dig in their pocket out a stupid 'need' to still bet the 2nd.