Future of Cattle Business

[Aaron]

Leasing is the future because most producers will not be able to afford the land.

That will last until the infrastructure is dilapidated and no one wants to shell out the cash (or more importantly risk) to mend it. After that it will either go vacant or sold.

 

[Dave]

The amount of positive thought here is amazing.

There are 10 full time ranchers in my little valley. Only one has a spouse with a town job, he is 32. One other 32 year old. Two in their mid 40's. One is the biggest number of cows and the other the smallest. I am guessing 3 are in their 50's. The other 3 are 60+. They all seem to be living pretty well. If I were 30-40 years younger and know what I know now I would be jumping in with both feet. The future is so bright I need to wear shades.

 

[Stocker Steve]

The amount of positive thought here is amazing.

There are 10 full time ranchers in my little valley. Only one has a spouse with a town job, he is 32. One other 32 year old. Two in their mid 40's. One is the biggest number of cows and the other the smallest. I am guessing 3 are in their 50's. The other 3 are 60+. They all seem to be living pretty well. If I were 30-40 years younger and know what I know now I would be jumping in with both feet. The future is so bright I need to wear shades.

Are they leasing land or cows or both?

 

[JMJ Farms]

They pay their own way. They don't buy equipment. They don't pay for the farm I own.

I don't think that satisfies the requirement for the former to be true.

That's a valid point. They could afford to pay the lease on the farm that I own, but couldn't pay the bank note. They could afford a tractor suitable to feed hay, such as my 5510. But they couldn't pay for my cab tractor. It's more of a want than a need. My operation has come a long way. But I could have never done it the way I did, without supplemental income. Land and Calf prices in the southeast just won't allow it.

 

[cowrancher75]

you guys act like you can go into ANY business and just jump on it without a dime or day of labor and start making 100k/year profit..


I don't know of ANY business that you don't have to put a lot of time and money into to get it going.

Of course you can't just go out, buy some cows and a tractor and the cows will pay for EVERYTHING AND give you massive profits every month.. NOTHING is like that.



I own dozens of rental properties.. Do you think I just went to a bank and said.. HEY I WANT TO BUY THESE!!! no. that doesn't work..

Do you know what it took? A whole lot of hard work and thinking.



If it was that easy, every person would be doing it.






I remember when I first started buying houses.. @ 21 years old. with no help and the clothes on my back.. I would go buy some tools to do a job and return them because I ditn' have an extra nickel. I worked 15 hours a day, woke back up at 4a.m. and did it again.. 7 days a week.

Do you know how many people LAUGHED and said.. YOU WILL NEVER MAKE ANY MONEY ON THOSE!!!!!!


I'll give you 1 example of my properties..

Paid: 11,000 $


Rent: 650 / m x 12 years of rent -- PAID house


Sold: 95,000 $ after fees, realtor @ 86,000 $ check in my pocket.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Do the math on that 1 property, (have lots like that) and let me know if I made any money..

Now I laugh to the bank.





ANY idea.. ANY business.. ANYTHING.. people will fail and people will prevail. The only thing that controls success and failure is the person who tries.

 

[Dave]

The amount of positive thought here is amazing.

There are 10 full time ranchers in my little valley. Only one has a spouse with a town job, he is 32. One other 32 year old. Two in their mid 40's. One is the biggest number of cows and the other the smallest. I am guessing 3 are in their 50's. The other 3 are 60+. They all seem to be living pretty well. If I were 30-40 years younger and know what I know now I would be jumping in with both feet. The future is so bright I need to wear shades.

Are they leasing land or cows or both?

A portion of land is leased but no one is on entirely leased land. The home base and hay ground is all deeded. No leased cattle. One guy owns a couple hundred mother cows and brings in a big bunch of steers that he grazes for someone else on rate of gain.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

you guys act like you can go into ANY business and just jump on it without a dime or day of labor and start making 100k/year profit..


I don't know of ANY business that you don't have to put a lot of time and money into to get it going.

Of course you can't just go out, buy some cows and a tractor and the cows will pay for EVERYTHING AND give you massive profits every month.. NOTHING is like that.



I own dozens of rental properties.. Do you think I just went to a bank and said.. HEY I WANT TO BUY THESE!!! no. that doesn't work..

Do you know what it took? A whole lot of hard work and thinking.



If it was that easy, every person would be doing it.



I remember when I first started buying houses.. @ 21 years old. with no help and the clothes on my back.. I would go buy some tools to do a job and return them because I ditn' have an extra nickel. I worked 15 hours a day, woke back up at 4a.m. and did it again.. 7 days a week.

Do you know how many people LAUGHED and said.. YOU WILL NEVER MAKE ANY MONEY ON THOSE!!!!!!


I'll give you 1 example of my properties..

Paid: 11,000 $


Rent: 650 / m x 12 years of rent -- PAID house


Sold: 95,000 $ after fees, realtor @ 86,000 $ check in my pocket.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Do the math on that 1 property, (have lots like that) and let me know if I made any money..

Now I laugh to the bank.





ANY idea.. ANY business.. ANYTHING.. people will fail and people will prevail. The only thing that controls success and failure is the person who tries.

Are you sure you're not kin to ddd75?

 

[True Grit Farms]

I'll leave the cows to y'all as soon as the next upturn happens I'm selling, I'll keep just enough to offset my deer feeding practices for tax purposes. If we can get into a CRP or some other type of government pine tree - wildlife program the time may be sooner rather than later. Cattle are very time consuming and need to be checked on daily. I have other things in life that I would like to do and places to see besides checking cows.

 

[hurleyjd]

you guys act like you can go into ANY business and just jump on it without a dime or day of labor and start making 100k/year profit..


I don't know of ANY business that you don't have to put a lot of time and money into to get it going.

Of course you can't just go out, buy some cows and a tractor and the cows will pay for EVERYTHING AND give you massive profits every month.. NOTHING is like that.



I own dozens of rental properties.. Do you think I just went to a bank and said.. HEY I WANT TO BUY THESE!!! no. that doesn't work..

Do you know what it took? A whole lot of hard work and thinking.



If it was that easy, every person would be doing it.



I remember when I first started buying houses.. @ 21 years old. with no help and the clothes on my back.. I would go buy some tools to do a job and return them because I ditn' have an extra nickel. I worked 15 hours a day, woke back up at 4a.m. and did it again.. 7 days a week.

Do you know how many people LAUGHED and said.. YOU WILL NEVER MAKE ANY MONEY ON THOSE!!!!!!


I'll give you 1 example of my properties..

Paid: 11,000 $


Rent: 650 / m x 12 years of rent -- PAID house


Sold: 95,000 $ after fees, realtor @ 86,000 $ check in my pocket.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Do the math on that 1 property, (have lots like that) and let me know if I made any money..

Now I laugh to the bank.





ANY idea.. ANY business.. ANYTHING.. people will fail and people will prevail. The only thing that controls success and failure is the person who tries.

Are you sure you're not kin to ddd75?

My guess if he owns that many rental houses then he has them on the Section 8 rental subsidy program.

 

[sim.-ang.king]

how is a young person supposed to get in when no one will cut them a break on land. very few people will 'gift' or give a really reduced price to someone willing to work the place. everyone is greedy.

now, how is a young person going to be able to afford ANYTHING that can generate an income. Everything around here is 20 acres max and thats still 500 -600k with a house. nothing fancy.

you can go to other areas and still buy good land for 2-3k per acre.. but how do you get a loan with no one backing you? no banker will give a loan unless you have the money. who is going to be able to afford a 3-400k farm to raise 40-50 hd.. if you have that and work you will make the payments.

i'm sure there are a lot of younger kids wanting to do it.. but its almost impossible to be able to buy the land, 150k in equipment, 200k in cattle, and a million dollar property.

I agree with this.
My old neighbors, and even some of my family members brag about buying ground for $500 or less 30 years ago. Now they won't lease it to a friend/neighbor, or family member for less than
$80/acre for the white dirt hilly ground.

Greed will be the down fall of American agricultural.
When it does come crumbling down those old greedy basturds will be sitting there wondering what happen to their cash cow?

 

[hurleyjd]

I'll leave the cows to y'all as soon as the next upturn happens I'm selling, I'll keep just enough to offset my deer feeding practices for tax purposes. If we can get into a CRP or some other type of government pine tree - wildlife program the time may be sooner rather than later. Cattle are very time consuming and need to be checked on daily. I have other things in life that I would like to do and places to see besides checking cows.

I am not waiting I sent 20 head to the sale all young short bred cows. I will forget about the tax write off (loss) and just pay the taxes. I have 50 pairs left and will try selling about five each week until gone.

 

[jltrent]

I'll leave the cows to y'all as soon as the next upturn happens I'm selling, I'll keep just enough to offset my deer feeding practices for tax purposes. If we can get into a CRP or some other type of government pine tree - wildlife program the time may be sooner rather than later. Cattle are very time consuming and need to be checked on daily. I have other things in life that I would like to do and places to see besides checking cows.

Getting worried now if Grit doesn't see hope as he usually is pretty optimistic......I am with you on selling on the next upturn....when and if it happens I will be contacting KT to bring his trailer down with his buddies trailers and will line the doggies up into the trailers. I will buy some back when they get cheaper.

 

[Caustic Burno]

I am thinking of dumping all mine as well. Then each spring go buy half dozen SS heavies sell the pairs in the fall. Keep my Ag exemption no hay or winter feeding. If not that plant the place in Long Leaf Pine, lot of landowners are choosing that route.
The government will come in and plant the pines.

 

[cowrancher75]

you guys act like you can go into ANY business and just jump on it without a dime or day of labor and start making 100k/year profit..


I don't know of ANY business that you don't have to put a lot of time and money into to get it going.

Of course you can't just go out, buy some cows and a tractor and the cows will pay for EVERYTHING AND give you massive profits every month.. NOTHING is like that.



I own dozens of rental properties.. Do you think I just went to a bank and said.. HEY I WANT TO BUY THESE!!! no. that doesn't work..

Do you know what it took? A whole lot of hard work and thinking.



If it was that easy, every person would be doing it.



I remember when I first started buying houses.. @ 21 years old. with no help and the clothes on my back.. I would go buy some tools to do a job and return them because I ditn' have an extra nickel. I worked 15 hours a day, woke back up at 4a.m. and did it again.. 7 days a week.

Do you know how many people LAUGHED and said.. YOU WILL NEVER MAKE ANY MONEY ON THOSE!!!!!!


I'll give you 1 example of my properties..

Paid: 11,000 $


Rent: 650 / m x 12 years of rent -- PAID house


Sold: 95,000 $ after fees, realtor @ 86,000 $ check in my pocket.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Do the math on that 1 property, (have lots like that) and let me know if I made any money..

Now I laugh to the bank.





ANY idea.. ANY business.. ANYTHING.. people will fail and people will prevail. The only thing that controls success and failure is the person who tries.

Are you sure you're not kin to ddd75?

My guess if he owns that many rental houses then he has them on the Section 8 rental subsidy program.

i've never rented section 8 / housing voucher program but that is the way to do it. they will cover some damages as well as guaranteed funds. most of the time those people stay longer as well.

But.. it doesn't matter.. one way or another the government usually pay via social security .. (i'm talking children,not old people) VA benefits, disability, etc. Very few people come to rent a property and have a job as the sole source of income.

if you would see all the government payment to everyone for everything people wouldn'tbe screaming SOCIALISM.. it is already here.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Could be a while till an upturn. Harlan predicted next year would be the best time to retain heifers for the next price cycle. :cowboy: Most interesting part is return per pair per year projection during the price cycle.

Main issue here in snow country is that hay has gone up in price. Some just south of here have gone total TMR using corn stalks and no hay. I really don't want to run a TMR every day during late fall and winter.

 

[Dave]

I'll leave the cows to y'all as soon as the next upturn happens I'm selling, I'll keep just enough to offset my deer feeding practices for tax purposes. If we can get into a CRP or some other type of government pine tree - wildlife program the time may be sooner rather than later. Cattle are very time consuming and need to be checked on daily. I have other things in life that I would like to do and places to see besides checking cows.

Why do cows need to be checked daily? That sure doesn't happen here. In the winter when they are down in the valley being fed there is about 1,800 cows between my house and the post office (about 4.5 miles). I am certain that since mid May the vast majority of those cows have not been seen by their owners.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Why do cows need to be checked daily? That sure doesn't happen here. In the winter when they are down in the valley being fed there is about 1,800 cows between my house and the post office (about 4.5 miles). I am certain that since mid May the vast majority of those cows have not been seen by their owners.

We have mostly deeded ground that we have to graze intensively to make it pay. So year round we are moving them to a new paddock or a new row of hay bales every couple days. Most of the time I enjoy making a cup in the morning and driving out to open a gate and check the mineral.

The issue I have created for myself is trying to have pretty pastures with shelterbelts in key locations. So lots of spot spraying and cliping and hauling and ...

 

[shaz]

I think everyone is bummed because prices are really bad right now.
Here's some of the reasons why -

We're on the wrong side of supply & demand right now.
There is a trade war
The dollar is too high
Those fake meat IPOs have convinced too many people that fake meat is the future
People are incredibly ignorant of what cows actually do to the soil

These are things that should play out over time, it's just going to hurt until then.

 

[ALACOWMAN]

I think everyone is bummed because prices are really bad right now.
Here's some of the reasons why -

We're on the wrong side of supply & demand right now.
There is a trade war
The dollar is too high
Those fake meat IPOs have convinced too many people that fake meat is the future
People are incredibly ignorant of what cows actually do to the soil

These are things that should play out over time, it's just going to hurt until then.

Some of it will play out, but ignorant people will prevail...

 

[callmefence]

Are you sure you're not kin to ddd75?

My guess if he owns that many rental houses then he has them on the Section 8 rental subsidy program.

i've never rented section 8 / housing voucher program but that is the way to do it. they will cover some damages as well as guaranteed funds. most of the time those people stay longer as well.

But.. it doesn't matter.. one way or another the government usually pay via social security .. (i'm talking children,not old people) VA benefits, disability, etc. Very few people come to rent a property and have a job as the sole source of income.

if you would see all the government payment to everyone for everything people wouldn'tbe screaming SOCIALISM.. it is already here.

Y'all remember that car salesman that posted his check stub or something like that. Whatever happened to him??