I will never say dumb or tell another producer what is best. Each situation is different. Now is a time that some I respect are considering other options than what they normally do. We retain our heifers rather than buy cows. We feel it works best for us. I know a producer who wanted too sell around 150 older cows. Think he ended up buying around 50 5-7 y cows and sold the oldest. Plans too sell the rest after weaning. Normally he would buy 3-4 y/o's. Another factor is does a producer have too borrow money and pay interest. Myself I wouldn't buy the $4,000.00 dollar heifer pairs selling. I would buy older bred cows that the calf should pay for and you have the cow you can sell if needed. But we retain ours so only buy a cow once in awhile to bring in new genetics.What this all means is that I'd be dumb to buy some cattle right now, correct?
You old timers wouldn't enter into the market at a time like this, would you? Will there be a summer slump on prices in Texas? I need some bred cows, but I can't really see how I'll make money on 1600 to 2000 for other peoples culls that are bred…
Dave each producer has too consider all options now. What is best depends on management and what that producer raises and markets. If cow/calf do they sell at weaning or retain. If a stocker there are many options. I talked to an older man last week. He said his son is buying lots of heavier cutter bulls now. Feel they have the most potential. We are cow/calf so don't plan to graze anything except what we raise.I don't think I would jump into that light calf market right now. If I were buying calves right now I would certainly put the LRP on them. I am really considering putting LRP on the calves which are being born here now.
And I'm in the market for 100 little steers. 700 lb steers in Sept being valued at $4 right now, there is a good profit on $4.90 350 weights today.. I have only bought price insurance once but we use forward contracts a lot.I don't think I would jump into that light calf market right now. If I were buying calves right now I would certainly put the LRP on them. I am really considering putting LRP on the calves which are being born here now.
Well, I was poor when I started because of COVID issues at my other job. But now no debt and don't need the bank.I will never say dumb or tell another producer what is best. Each situation is different. Now is a time that some I respect are considering other options than what they normally do. We retain our heifers rather than buy cows. We feel it works best for us. I know a producer who wanted too sell around 150 older cows. Think he ended up buying around 50 5-7 y cows and sold the oldest. Plans too sell the rest after weaning. Normally he would buy 3-4 y/o's. Another factor is does a producer have too borrow money and pay interest. Myself I wouldn't buy the $4,000.00 dollar heifer pairs selling. I would buy older bred cows that the calf should pay for and you have the cow you can sell if needed. But we retain ours so only buy a cow once in awhile to bring in new genetics.
Forward contract is another way to go. I just remember 2015 well enough that I would want to protect myself in some manner. That year I contracted in June. In July the market went south.And I'm in the market for 100 little steers. 700 lb steers in Sept being valued at $4 right now, there is a good profit on $4.90 350 weights today.. I have only bought price insurance once but we use forward contracts a lot.
I fully respect your decision. Most likely I would make a similar decision. Nice too see you mention your respect for your pastures. Many over stock then either have too buy hay or sell cows. We put out tubs. Our cows graze last years grass unless we have snow covering it up.Well, I was poor when I started because of COVID issues at my other job. But now no debt and don't need the bank.
But, for me, I just see risk in these high prices. I'm a tiny operation. Max I could run 13 head and not push my place. If industrialized, could try for 19 head. But I like wildlife, and I also want very low input costs, so I won't push it.
Destocked a bit because of the drought. Didn't feed one bale of hay to my current herd over the winter, as a tub and sparse stockpile along with good winter grass growth sufficed to get them through in decent body condition. In fact, I haven't spent any money on them since November. Also already bought the wind and rain mineral and loose salt to put out for them when the tub runs out, so I think I'll just let the old bank account rest for a while.
Still have a few heifers left over from destocking and enough head of mature cows to pay the taxes and such.
Don't really want to add thin cows to the herd right now either.
I'm thinking I just let my place rest and recover at least till July, then see where prices are then.
I bought 200 h/c to dodge a tax bill fall of 2015. They worked!Forward contract is another way to go. I just remember 2015 well enough that I would want to protect myself in some manner. That year I contracted in June. In July the market went south.
Tubs really work. Have been using them for the past 18 months. First during winter and then during the drought.I fully respect your decision. Most likely I would make a similar decision. Nice to see you mention your respect for your pastures. Many over stock then either have to buy hay or sell cows. We put out tubs. Our cows graze last years grass unless we have snow covering it up.
A friend of mine told me that he bought 2 semi loads of 500 pound steers in late 2014. By the time they were ready to go in 2015 he lost $450 a head on them. That will set you back for a while.I bought 200 h/c to dodge a tax bill fall of 2015. They worked!
We got our purchase dollars back and lost the feed. Accountant said we were still $40k better off.
I agree about learning lessons. I just have never gotten anywhere looking in the rear view mirror.A friend of mine told me that he bought 2 semi loads of 500 pound steers in late 2014. By the time they were ready to go in 2015 he lost $450 a head on them. That will set you back for a while.
Glad cattle folk are making money.Market is hot here. Yesterday's sale results:
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Its hard on him to work the 12 hour nights and have cattle. I worked Monday night and it messed me up for 2 days. Figure i will work tomorrow night also.Son talked to auctioneer friend about the calves we have to sell, timing and everything... JS said to sell any and everything we got to sell... he said he is selling all his feeder stock...
We worked through and sorted a bunch yesterday, was going to take them tomorrow but calling for snow Friday night... Son has got to work 7-12, then go back to work at 8... Now saying 2-5 inches... was only a possibility of 1-2 ..... so we will hold them another week... too much to do tomorrow and we like to stay when they sell...I want to put out a few extra rolls of hay so don't have to tear up the fields if it gets slick or mushy... for a few days... and I have got to move some small sq bales up to the barn for the calves that are on bottles.... and just weaned ones..
They will keep another week at the farm, been on silage and such, so no big deal... Got a couple cull cows and a bull that is stifled, got some age, to go...
There doesn't seem to be any dropping off in price with the cattle numbers being so low...
Well, it just so happens that I may be getting 102...or 112...I forget what he said.....this weekend. All are solid, too...about 70% of them black. They are all bred...but the man had 1 Angus bull with the. Calving window is going to be from the 1st of March til end of June or so. I don't need all that many. But, where you are located you can probably find plenty there locally.Glad cattle folk are making money.
But you're also making my point. I think I'm officially priced out this market.
@Warren Allison, I think I'm gonna be forced to go the Corriente route for replacements.