Another Bubble?

[Stocker Steve]

Cows had been a lot cheaper in the north. Now bred cows went up $300 to $400 per head in the last month.
Hay jockeys say their phones are ringing off the hook, by folks who need some hay so they can go run out and buy cows also.
Lean ground beef is $9/lb. in our store. How can this last?

 

[Aaron]

It just needs to last for 10 more months and then it can go in the tank. In all seriousness, I don't know who will be left around in a year from now. You met Len when you visited, turns out all his cattle are gone as of this week. And he is one of those guys that would rather die than be without cows. What does that say? Albeit it was due to mobility issues, but even so. I just saw in the national hereford magazine that a well-respected Manitoba breeder (friend) is calling it quits this year as well, dispersing his 300 cows.

I would be more concerned as to how many kill plants are going to close in the next couple of years.

 

[sim.-ang.king]

Good time to be selling cows, or holding on to the ones you got. I hope this spring all but 2 of my calves are heifers. Can't buy them as cheap as I can raise them.
I just feel sorry for all of the johnny-come-latelys that are going to be buying in full bore, and then this bottoms out like corn prices.

Just always remember corn will never be below $6

 

[SmokinM]

A stock market is a stock market so there are ups and downs. Just like Wall St. if you can buy low and sell high you make money. I wouldn't buy stocks right now nor would I buy cattle unless their a deal. It pays to look at what an average trade dollar value is over a period of time. You guys are smart enough to know that $9 hamburger isn't going to move like $3 burger. What I am most curious to see is at what point does the supply not meet demand then you have a proprietary product. Any business's opportunity to make PROFIT is driven by supply and demand. Population increases but farm numbers get lower every year. That being said I don't think you will see $.60 cattle again but I also don't think $2.60 is going to be the new floor any time soon. Just my :2cents: you guys know more about it than me!

 

[Stocker Steve]

You met Len when you visited, turns out all his cattle are gone as of this week. And he is one of those guys that would rather die than be without cows.

Where did his bred black heifers go?

 

[Aaron]

You met Len when you visited, turns out all his cattle are gone as of this week. And he is one of those guys that would rather die than be without cows.

Where did his bred black heifers go?

Everything was sold to a drover from Southern Ontario. I don't know what he got for prices, but I am going to guess most of the cows will go for slaughter. Real sad deal for 50 years of work. But that is a pretty common sight up here the last couple of years. I just hope his brothers give me first dibs on their herds - I suspect they will quit in the next year or two as well.

 

[bigbull338]

i dont think the bubble will bust anytime soon when you factor in the weather an people selling out.because if youll just sit back an look at the cows going back to the farm 10% of those will be culled in 2yrs or less.an with high feeder prices no 1 can afford to keep alot of heifers to add to the herd 2yrs.

 

[wacocowboy]

with herd counts so low and the cost of raising animals so high I just don't see the prices going down anytime soon and I don't see herd counts going up to rapidly then you have old people selling out and not that many young people buying in I read a study on the amount of farmers/ranchers who will retire or just be to old to do this compared to the amount of young people going into farming/ranching and it don't look good a lot more going out than going in I know around me there have been lots of estate sales and lots of big nice ranches sitting empty with a for sale sign the parents passed away and the kids don't want nothing to do with it

 

[Stocker Steve]

Had 10 uneven BA bred to calve in Febuary heifers come thru the barn yesterday. They only averaged 780# and a couple were getting sloppy. Sold for $1,275... :nod:

 

[denvermartinfarms]

Had 10 uneven BA bred to calve in Febuary heifers come thru the barn yesterday. They only averaged 780# and a couple were getting sloppy. Sold for $1,275... :nod:

2 weeks ago there was about 25 black 3rd stage heifers come through a sale I was at, in 3 groups, the first brought 2075$ the next brought 2000$ and the last 1950$ the biggest heifer might have went 950lbs and the smallest was in the upper 700s.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I don't get it. What kind of calf does a skinner plain upper 7s heifer raise?

 

[denvermartinfarms]

I don't get it. What kind of calf does a skinner plain upper 7s heifer raise?

They raise 1000$ 400lb calves here lately. That's the deal with this market, around here under 400lbs the stunted looking calves have been nearly as high as the good ones.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I don't get it. What kind of calf does a skinny plain upper 7s heifer raise?

They raise 1000$ 400lb calves here lately. That's the deal with this market, around here under 400lbs the stunted looking calves have been nearly as high as the good ones.

\

I bought a couple 3 wts. last year for 180/cwt. They are still 4wts. on a good day :shock: Where should I truck them to for $1,000 each ?

 

[denvermartinfarms]

I don't get it. What kind of calf does a skinny plain upper 7s heifer raise?

They raise 1000$ 400lb calves here lately. That's the deal with this market, around here under 400lbs the stunted looking calves have been nearly as high as the good ones.

\

I bought a couple 3 wts. last year for 180/cwt. They are still 4wts. on a good day :shock: Where should I truck them to for $1,000 each ?

Around here there's been alot of 400lb calves bring 2.50cwt and sevarel high 3wts in the 2.58cwt range.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Bud Williams said you were better off making money on a small herd - - than losing money on a big herd. :cowboy: