Climate Change and Hay Price Trends ?

[Stocker Steve]

I know drought and flooding has severely damaged some areas of USA. We have not had that, but we have had some unusually big rains in recent summers that run off into our dish pan shaped "hay meadows". We also have small dairies going out that often rent their land to corn n bean grain farmers, who plow up any sod. The short term effect is fewer tons of hay produced. So our local hay prices are strengthening while corn n bean prices are declining. Are you seeing these trends too?

Talked recently to a 100 cow beef producer who bought into the "it is cheaper to buy hay" mantra. So he stocked heavier. Now he has got caught with too many cows in a down market - - trying to rebalance herd size with $120 to $150/ton cow hay. :help: Next year he is talking about rising some corn silage. Any thoughts on this?

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

I know drought and flooding has severely damaged some areas of USA. We have not had that, but we have had some unusually big rains in recent summers that run off into our dish pan shaped "hay meadows". We also have small dairies going out that often rent their land to corn n bean grain farmers, who plow up any sod. The short term effect is fewer tons of hay produced. So our local hay prices are strengthening while corn n bean prices are declining. Are you seeing these trends too?

Talked recently to a 100 cow beef producer who bought into the "it is cheaper to buy hay" mantra. So he stocked heavier. Now he has got caught with too many cows in a down market - - trying to rebalance herd size with $120 to $150/ton cow hay. :help: Next year he is talking about rising some corn silage. Any thoughts on this?

Yes, it's called the weather, it changes, has for millions of years.

 

[sim.-ang.king]

Sounds more like a management problem, than a climate problem.

 

[Bigfoot]

My thought is a question. Can the expense of silage equipment/handling/storage be overcome by hay savings?

I honestly don't know. I was only around silage one time, and a small herd of cows moved through 160 tons of it fast.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Silage storage and equipment can be very expensive, so many have gone to custom choppers who put it into a pile for you.

 

[Lucky]

I'm struggling with the hay deal too. My math says it's better for me to buy hay than to bale my own or have it baled. For the last 5 years I've been getting pretty good weed free hay for about $85 a ton or really good jiggs bermuda that test 16% protien for $120 a ton. Both of these prices are delivered to the barn. I'd like to see the math on doing it differently. Say buying hay equipment and maintaining hay fields or maintaining hay fields and having it custom baled. My experience with silage for beef cattle was not good. They just eat too much and end up needing hay for roughage.

 

[Aaron]

100 cow beef producer who bought into the "it is cheaper to buy hay" mantra

That won't end well. Best to set aside 20 acres for corn silage, have it entirely custom done and cut way back on the hay bill. Only equipment he would need to purchase is silage feeder wagons and a decent loader tractor. Pile silage in the field it is produced and transport feeder wagons to pile to fill up.

 

[Nesikep]

I don't get it, every time someone thinks they can get ahead by cutting out a step, a step that someone else is making money at.. same goes for raising calves, selling your own heifers to buy other ones.. etc.. I think it's a short sighted view, markets are always going to fluctuate and adjust, but the quickest way to get caught with your pants down is to have cows and not have the hay for them.

 

[CattleMan1920]

In my neck of the woods, it has rained over 70 inches this year, a total wash out. Funny thing however, this is the 3rd year of this kind of weather. Lots and lots of rain. With that said nearly everyone had serious issues putting up quality hay. People would cut hay, and it would get rained on, most of the time a total loss. Those that fared better were using conditioners, silage balers, and wrapping it hours later. Problem is most farmers don't own all of that equipment. Thus the hay issues. Hay is only going to get more expensive in my opinion.

 

[Stocker Steve]

There is a long term trend of increased "significant rain events" in the eastern US. A shorter term trend here for increased balage production.
Corn silage yields here are running 20+ tons per acre - - so roughly twice the DM yield of a 3 cut hay crop. Long term trend is corn yields per acre are going up faster than grass/legume yields.

 

[ddd75]

i've done a lot of thinking / math on the issue between hay and silage.

With the time, the $$$ for fuel, seed, labor, etc.. you get about the same amount of feed with hay.. yet with none of the extra costs.

To get the amout of silage I'd need, I'd have to take them OFF a grazing field that pretty much lets them graze the entire summer / fall to be able to get the amount of silage needed to take them through winter. So now I have less grazing, more money, more time, more equipment.. to make less feed.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I think the economics question is what are your gross margins?

If your GM is low who may need to dial back inputs, and perhaps even reduce stocking level. If GM is high enough - - you can justify more inputs and more intensive management. You could run more cows, or perhaps better yet background calves with the corn silage. If you don't have pens you could feed corn silage on fall pasture daily, just like many unroll hay.

The majority of the cow calf producers here are low management input and sell sucking calves off the cow in the fall. Some background the calves using either corn silage or by products. This has doubled gross margin per cow most years. Looking back - - selling some calves in September would have been a good trade this year. :nod:

In the unlikely even you do not need the silage - - you have the option of custom combining as long as you buy the right maturity seed.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

In my neck of the woods, it has rained over 70 inches this year, a total wash out. Funny thing however, this is the 3rd year of this kind of weather. Lots and lots of rain. With that said nearly everyone had serious issues putting up quality hay. People would cut hay, and it would get rained on, most of the time a total loss. Those that fared better were using conditioners, silage balers, and wrapping it hours later. Problem is most farmers don't own all of that equipment. Thus the hay issues. Hay is only going to get more expensive in my opinion.

Where is your neck of the woods?

 

[5S Cattle]

In my neck of the woods, it has rained over 70 inches this year, a total wash out. Funny thing however, this is the 3rd year of this kind of weather. Lots and lots of rain. With that said nearly everyone had serious issues putting up quality hay. People would cut hay, and it would get rained on, most of the time a total loss. Those that fared better were using conditioners, silage balers, and wrapping it hours later. Problem is most farmers don't own all of that equipment. Thus the hay issues. Hay is only going to get more expensive in my opinion.

Where is your neck of the woods?

Says Kentucky in his profile

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

In my neck of the woods, it has rained over 70 inches this year, a total wash out. Funny thing however, this is the 3rd year of this kind of weather. Lots and lots of rain. With that said nearly everyone had serious issues putting up quality hay. People would cut hay, and it would get rained on, most of the time a total loss. Those that fared better were using conditioners, silage balers, and wrapping it hours later. Problem is most farmers don't own all of that equipment. Thus the hay issues. Hay is only going to get more expensive in my opinion.

Where is your neck of the woods?

Says Kentucky in his profile

I'll be darned. I hadn't clicked on his profile. Thanks.

Of course I can see that you're from Brenham, TX at a glance.

 

[True Grit Farms]

Where is your neck of the woods?

Says Kentucky in his profile

I'll be darned. I hadn't clicked on his profile. Thanks.

Of course I can see that you're from Brenham, TX at a glance.

And you know this how?

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Says Kentucky in his profile

I'll be darned. I hadn't clicked on his profile. Thanks.

Of course I can see that you're from Brenham, TX at a glance.

And you know this how?

Voodoo.

 

[JParrott]

IMO - it's only cheaper to buy if you have a guaranteed supply to fill your needs every year. If you've got that - then you're good. The only people I've ever seen who have that are the ones who make their own hay and manage herd size from year to year accordingly.