Why Herefords are Vanishing

[HerefordSire]

This is what it is all about. This bull is the #1 bull calf in two of the four categories of profit indices. Notice the blistering marbling EPD. I have no idea what this bull looks like. However, check this pedigree out.....it is a Picasso! Also, the numbers are strong! It doesn't get any better than this, theoretically, if you are looking for a black white face. This could be a no brainer in a year or two for semen purchases. Besides, the owner is in our midst!

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-bin/i ... 0&9=5C535D

 

[Willow Springs]

Nice balance on the rest of the EPD's as well. Good calving ease with moderate growth, above average scrotal and MCE. Moderate growth/frame is probably the reason for a little lower ribeye EPD, and should be more on target with what the consumer is ordering.

 

[S&S Farms]

I like the scrotal epd. Big ones will make better calves

Jeff

 

[cypressfarms]

I have no idea what this bull looks like.

O.k. so I'll be the devil's advocate. What good does the best epd's in the world do if the bull is a dud phenotypically? Ofcourse the numbers look good, but where's the beef?

 

[talldog]

I like the scrotal epd. Big ones will make better calves

Jeff

How about the small ones ???

 

[Frankie]

What about the rib eye EPD? Isn't that an indicator of muscling?

 

[HerefordSire]

I have no idea what this bull looks like.

O.k. so I'll be the devil's advocate. What good does the best epd's in the world do if the bull is a dud phenotypically? Ofcourse the numbers look good, but where's the beef?

Good question!

Generally, I think our goals as breeders should be as much improvement as fast as possible. Notice how the breeder only has two ancestors with his name prefix. This means the breeder topped the charts in the entire North American and South American continents in less than five years. WOW! How did he do it? What did he do different than the masses? Is he more educated than the masses? Does he have more common sense than the masses?

So back to your question and I encourage you and all others to answer your own question. "Profit Indices" mean just that. The numbers this bull prospect topped are not called "Loss Indices". The scientists and the mathematician's statistics coming from the total population of Herefords in Pan America believe this bull has a high probability of generating a higher profit relative to all other animals in his age group. So let's say, the bull is ugly, has bad feet and legs, his dam has bad udders, has a sloping back, has a funnel butt, zero pigment, and a poor eyset....which is possible.

So how do we work around these bad traits? Can I take 100 Hereford cows, inject Chester's semen into them, select the five best bulls with the best phenotype? What do the high profit indices really mean? Are they just numbers? Or do they represent previous ancestors traits that excel relative to their peers?

 

[HerefordSire]

What about the rib eye EPD? Isn't that an indicator of muscling?

I agree that there could be another step or two before generating a bull of greatness. The probabilities of greatness are there. What the breeder does from here is another set of questions. We could see a little FAT reduction and REA increase while sacrificing a little marbling, birth weight, and growth to make a more balance animal able to target more markets than BWF. This process should allow a little more time for phenotypical improvement.

 

[Herefords.US]

The probabilities of greatness are there.

I'm throwing the BS flag on you here, HS! With a maximum accuracy on any trait of .36 the probabilities (of greatness) are still stacked in favor of the bull being rather average. Count me in as one who'd actually like to see what the bull looks like before someone flippantly calling him "great"! And count me in as one who'd like to see all those EPD accuracy levels above a .8 before declaring him a great breeding bull.

Profit indices derived from low accuracy, unreliable EPDs are just as UNRELIABLE as the EPD numbers they are derived from!

George

 

[HerefordSire]

The probabilities of greatness are there.

I'm throwing the BS flag on you here, HS! With a maximum accuracy on any trait of .36 the probabilities (of greatness) are still stacked in favor of the bull being rather average. Count me in as one who'd actually like to see what the bull looks like before someone flippantly calling him "great"! And count me in as one who'd like to see all those EPD accuracy levels above a .8 before declaring him a great breeding bull.

Profit indices derived from low accuracy, unreliable EPDs are just as UNRELIABLE as the EPD numbers they are derived from!

George

We are referring to two different sets of probabilities. You are referring to accuracies. I am referring to an ancestor mix.

I realize I write from a point of view that is definitely in the minority. The majority usually doesn't believe in intangible value. They want to see it and touch and taste it before they realize the value is there. They have years and years of experience in the trenches without the use of intangble values. Why should they change now when they have been feeding their families without intangibles for 4-5 generations?

 

[Herefords.US]

The probabilities of greatness are there.

I'm throwing the BS flag on you here, HS! With a maximum accuracy on any trait of .36 the probabilities (of greatness) are still stacked in favor of the bull being rather average. Count me in as one who'd actually like to see what the bull looks like before someone flippantly calling him "great"! And count me in as one who'd like to see all those EPD accuracy levels above a .8 before declaring him a great breeding bull.

Profit indices derived from low accuracy, unreliable EPDs are just as UNRELIABLE as the EPD numbers they are derived from!

George

We are referring to two different sets of probabilities. You are referring to accuracies. I am referring to an ancestor mix.

I realize I write from a point of view that is definitely in the minority. The majority usually doesn't believe in intangible value. They want to see it and touch and taste it before they realize the value is there. They have years and years of experience in the trenches without the use of intangble values. Why should they change now when they have been feeding their families without intangibles for 4-5 generations?

One only has to look at the differences between full siblings, even in linebred lines, to know that the same "ancestor mix" can beget a whole myriad of different genotypes and phenotypes. Without selection, ancestor mix means little or nothing.

As far as REAL intangible value goes, that usually comes as the result of an astute cattleman making selection decisions based on the entire volume of criteria available, not from some "numbers cruncher" just looking at a set of low accuracy EPDs and profit indices.

George

 

[HerefordSire]

One only has to look at the differences between full siblings, even in linebred lines, to know that the same "ancestor mix" can beget a whole myriad of different genotypes and phenotypes. Without selection, ancestor mix means little or nothing.

As far as REAL intangible value goes, that usually comes as the result of an astute cattleman making selection decisions based on the entire volume of criteria available, not from some "numbers cruncher" just looking at a set of low accuracy EPDs and profit indices.

George

Good post George!

Selection is another subject we can go into for sure and I am willing. For now, the following bull is tied for the lowest $BMI profit Index in Pan America.

http://www.herfnet.com/online/cgi-bin/i ... F&9=525E5C

Without looking at either animal's physical manifestation, which bull has an ancestor mix likely to generate more profitable black white faces all other things being equal?

 

[redfornow]

As a great man once said....

Low Accuracy EPDs - Unreliable, Overvalued, and Overhyped!

I think that says it all this bull is nothing more than a plan... Looks on paper like a good plan?

But I have had a bull breed my cows, a straw breed my cows? But I have never had paper breed one...

 

[Herefords.US]

A year or so back, I resolved to no longer get into any extensive discussion with you about cattle breeding, HS. I think it was the mostly useless Fibonacci/Golden Mean discussion that prompted that resolution.

Now, I just occasionally feel compelled to throw the BS flag on you when you stray completely out into left field, mainly as a caution to any of the newcomers to CT who might mistakenly think that you have the smallest clue about what you're talking about - at least when it comes to CATTLE BREEDING!

But go ahead and rattle on if you must!

George

 

[HerefordSire]

As a great man once said....

Low Accuracy EPDs - Unreliable, Overvalued, and Overhyped!

I think that says it all this bull is nothing more than a plan... Looks on paper like a good plan?

But I have had a bull breed my cows, a straw breed my cows? But I have never had paper breed one...

Some things to think deeply about....

Prince Charles didn't have to pass an IQ test, or a physical test, in order to qualify for the throne of England which is the largest land owner on earth (including Canada). Nothing was in the control of Prince Charles for this event to happen.

If I own 100,000 shares of General Electric, I am a part owner of Genral Electric. The paper stock certificates don't have doors or elevators, or brick and mortar, but the paper represents a percentage ownership of the doors and elevators and brick and mortar. In essense, the paper has value over and beyond the heat in which they could produce if burned. Now, I can't walk through the front door of GE's headquarters and start ordering employees around.

 

[dyates]

Why not ask LFF for a picture? He posts here and it's his bull.

 

[alacattleman]

As a great man once said....

Low Accuracy EPDs - Unreliable, Overvalued, and Overhyped!

I think that says it all this bull is nothing more than a plan... Looks on paper like a good plan?

But I have had a bull breed my cows, a straw breed my cows? But I have never had paper breed one...

Some things to think deeply about....

Prince Charles didn't have to pass an IQ test, or a physical test, in order to qualify for the throne of England which is the largest land owner on earth (including Canada). Nothing was in the control of Prince Charles for this event to happen.

If I own 100,000 shares of General Electric, I am a part owner of Genral Electric. The paper stock certificates don't have doors or elevators, or brick and mortar, but the paper represents a percentage ownership of the doors and elevators and brick and mortar. In essense, the paper has value over and beyond the heat in which they could produce if burned. Now, I can't walk through the front door of GE's headquarters and start ordering employees around.

that's true but, he looks like ass with ears

 

[Herefords.US]

Why not ask LFF for a picture? He posts here and it's his bull.

I want this to be clear! For me, this discussion has very little to do with LFF or his bull. It has to do with the validity of placing a whole lot of value on low accuracy EPDs and profit indices with no regard to phenotype or other important traits. It has everything to do with the credibility of the "theory" and, for that matter, the theorist.

If LFF had posted this thread, I might have had the same questions, but I would have had a different attitude in how I approached them. LFF is a do-er, not just a theorist! And, even though I may not 100% agree with LFF's approach or his priorities in cattle breeding, any disagreement I would have would have been tempered with a healthy measure of respect for his efforts and his philosophy.

George

 

[KNERSIE]

I bet the queen sometimes wish she had rather culled him at weaning.

 

[redfornow]

I bet the queen sometimes wish she had rather culled him at weaning.

And there we have it....