Where is the end?

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Not a good time to buy. After the inputs go up to match and the cattle prices come down, we are screwed.
I totally agree. But i heard a guy last week say he just had to buy a bunch of cows while they are high. Acted like it was bad to not have enough.
I have 1/2 of the cows i could graze but im letting the grass grow.
 
I can't afford the taxes otherwise, I would have too put in pine plantation or run stockers or seasonal SS heavies to maintain my exemption status.
My old chief appraiser wanted everyone in the county (especially new smalltime farmers)to switch over from cow/calf to stockers/backgrounders. I asked her point blank in front of a big room of ag people
"And exactly where do you propose everyone buy these stockers? If there is no cow/calf ops in the county, it means San Jac people will have to take their money outside the county to buy in..Is that what you want?
 
Cheapest way to get up some for ag exemptions is Corriente. Use a homo for black and -polled bull, and your first calves will pay for the cows. Well, used to would pay 2 to 3x what the cows cost. . I watched them sell at Paris, Tx today. Corrs 7 mos or more bred, sold for over $1k...some up to $1300. 1st and 2nd quarter bred were $900 and up. Still the first calf wil lpay for the cow.
 
I totally agree. But i heard a guy last week say he just had to buy a bunch of cows while they are high. Acted like it was bad to not have enough.
I have 1/2 of the cows i could graze but im letting the grass grow.
I remember around 2013-14 setting at the market and watching cows sell way high and the people buying them I knew and thought they were crazy. I waited and cows that were selling for $2800 then, the next year they were $1200 or less. I have more time than money and if not, maybe I want pass broke from buying cows. A fool and their money will soon part ways.
 
Well I guess I'm a fool. Bought 5 pairs a couple of weeks ago for $4,250 per pair. It was from my friends estate sale and I had sentimental reasons. But there is also a business case. If the market holds until fall those calves will be $2,500 each, and if the cows candle out they will be worth $2,400 or so.
 
Well I guess I'm a fool. Bought 5 pairs a couple of weeks ago for $4,250 per pair. It was from my friends estate sale and I had sentimental reasons. But there is also a business case. If the market holds until fall those calves will be $2,500 each, and if the cows candle out they will be worth $2,400 or so.
You are not the only fool. I bought 2 older pairs 2 weeks ago. Paid $1,975 per pair. They got branded, an ear tag, and some vaccinations less than $10. Then straight to summer range that cost $0.75 a day. Even allowing some for the market to slip. The cows will hang up at 600 pounds for $2.50 a pound = $1,500. The calves will be 400 pounds (late calves) and bring $3.25 = $1,300. That is $2,800 on a $1,975 investment. Subtract $67.50 for pasture, $10 for vaccinations, and maybe $40 for fuel. I am still over $700 in the black.
Buy a 450 pound steer for $3.50. Sell a 600 pound steer for $3.00. Buy at $1,575, sell for $1,800. That is $225 to put on 150 pounds. That is $1.50 a pound to put on weight.
 
this inflation hasn't stopped at all.. and is continuing to rise.
as long as the supply chain for basic goods remain impacted by cost of doing business (such as fuel and utilities which ultimately affect the cost of raw goods) and decreased production due to a labor pool that demands more pay and produces less, inflation will increase
 
Doesn't matter about inflation in the cattle market cycle.
It runs a ten year cycle . Prices get where they are now people get in going to get rich just like the emus. All anyone every sees is the salebarn check never the inputs to keep Belle in the pasture.
Inputs continue to rise the three F's feed, fertilizer and fuel while Belle price is falling. We then have the dump as they finally come to the realization they are losing their ass!
They spent 150K on a Deere and hay equipment to save pennies on dollar spent on taxes.
Old Belle no longer costs 2 dollars a day to stand in the pastures she is at (pick a number) 5 or 6.
And their out of here for it to all start over.

yes, thats all from inflation.
if the cattle "cycle" goes back down to wear it was before.. that would mean we would be going negative by large margin. The same dollar in 2019 does very little today. Everything else is up, up.. and up some more. If anything does go back down, it will be by a small amount.
 
as long as the supply chain for basic goods remain impacted by cost of doing business (such as fuel and utilities which ultimately affect the cost of raw goods) and decreased production due to a labor pool that demands more pay and produces less, inflation will increase
or it might have something to do with funneling endless money to ukraine / isreal. and all the other programs being implemented. this non stop printing devalues our currency.
 
Cow/Calf is bad enough but at current prices, I'd hate to be the person trying to buy a bunch of stockers to keep their ag exemption... You'd be pretty close if not upside down on what the difference in prop taxes with and without ag valuation would be.
Without the ag exemption, property tax deduction is limited to $10,000 on your homestead (house and a couple acres). A couple cows get pretty cheap after that...but then you could go wildlife and let it grow up and stop fighting the trees, weeds, and mesquite. :cool:
 
Well I guess I'm a fool. Bought 5 pairs a couple of weeks ago for $4,250 per pair. It was from my friends estate sale and I had sentimental reasons. But there is also a business case. If the market holds until fall those calves will be $2,500 each, and if the cows candle out they will be worth $2,400 or so.
 
Well I guess I'm a fool. Bought 5 pairs a couple of weeks ago for $4,250 per pair. It was from my friends estate sale and I had sentimental reasons. But there is also a business case. If the market holds until fall those calves will be $2,500 each, and if the cows candle out they will be worth $2,400 or so.
I spent the winter buying $2000 steers and $1600 little heifers. There is a feed, vet, grass and freight cost added to that but there will be about $450 apiece left in my pocket when they leave in September.
 
Speaking of not having enough cows due to cost!
Guess I'm doing the same thing mentioned earlier. Had the west 17 acres cut and baled.
Maybe I can afford to buy something to feed it to this winter!
If I could talk someone into letting me fertilize it, it'd make an awesome second cutting in a few months. Long as it rains of coarse...
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I'm thinking about hitt8ng the hay lease with some urea. Thinking 150 to 200 pounds per acre. Reckon some triple 19 would make more sense?
Not if your wanting a quick response.
Urea works very quick and the P or K takes lots longer. According to the weather it could be September before the P and K kicks in good.
 

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