When to sell

[Chuckie]

Why is it that some ranchers will not sell when the market is up, betting that it will go up even more. Then if they do sell, and the price climbs higher, then they think they are going to die since they cheated themselves out of a few pennies.
Some had rather sell when the market drops to the bottom and then they have to sell from lack of cash flow. This way, they were forced to take the lower price and they don't feel as guilty. Lack of cash flow is one of the problems that ranchers have. When so much is tied up in the cattle, the cash flow comes from the sales. When forced into a corner with no cash, then you lose your profit when you have to generate cash flow when prices drop.
When prices drop, it's time to buy.
When prices are up, it's time to sell.

 

[Beefy]

good idea. i think i'll try that.

 

[Susie David]

Buy low...sell high....think I got it, will enter into our business plan. Tough part is knowing the difference. Dmc

 

[bigbull338]

that is up to the person.i know alot of all salves calves at 4 to 6 months.but i dont do that.i sell when in the mood.an at the weights i sell at i dont lose money.always get the average.if i have 1 that limps i keep him till he has tobe sold.to get the weight on him.scott

 

[Bama]

For stockers I generally sell on MOndays and buy back on Wednesdays. I don't get burned that way as I buy and sell in the same general market price.

 

[sidney411]

You don't know if the price was up or down until you already sold and can compare it to the next weeks reports :lol: BTW - I don't put a whole lot of credit on the reports. I use them as a tool, not an absolute or a majic 8 ball.

 

[Chuckie]

We are used to selling directly to the buyer and know what he is going to pay before we load the cattle up. His prices are fair and we come out ahead taking to him vs. going to the sale barn where the cattle lose more weight and slap sale percentages on the end.
Smaller farmers tend to hold for higher prices. People just getting into the business because of the price of beef are more likely to hold on for a few more dollars.

 

[Bama]

To explain it a little better I use the market reports as a guide. I compare their weight to the going price for that weight. I look at weight gained verses price change in the next couple of months ahead. ( computer program for this ) Then figure the cost of that gain verses the expected return. I try to sell at the high point of investment verses returns. That don't always happen but it gives me somethiong to shoot for. I buy back two days later reguardless of the market unless I know its falling then I may wait another week. For the most part if you try to sell high and buy low you will have a pasture that is not loaded to fulll capacity all year. Cattle in someone elses pasture are not making me any money.

 

[Rod]

The 300-550 weights seem to flucuate quite a bit and if their high then I'm prone to cashing in, but on the most part the 600-700 have been steady at 1.00 or a little higher and thats generally what I shoot for. A cow only gives you a calf once a year so why not wait for the $650-$700 a head paycheck(giving that your pasture is in good shape and you are not having to feed excessfully to put gains on them).

 

[Stocker Steve]

To explain it a little better I use the market reports as a guide. I compare their weight to the going price for that weight. I look at weight gained verses price change in the next couple of months ahead. ( computer program for this ) Then figure the cost of that gain verses the expected return. I try to sell at the high point of investment verses returns. That don't always happen but it gives me somethiong to shoot for. I buy back two days later reguardless of the market unless I know its falling then I may wait another week. For the most part if you try to sell high and buy low you will have a pasture that is not loaded to fulll capacity all year. Cattle in someone elses pasture are not making me any money.

I have done some short term sell / buy calf deals. It is hard to come out if you are processing the calves, paying shipping, paying commission... I call it buy low - - sell low. You do see the occasional real deal on rough stuff like horned yearling bulls but you earn your money working on them.

I see the sales barn jockeys buying calves, hauling them to the next sales barn that same afternoon, and then reselling the next morning. This seems to work if you really know your local markets.

 

[Bama]

To explain it a little better I use the market reports as a guide. I compare their weight to the going price for that weight. I look at weight gained verses price change in the next couple of months ahead. ( computer program for this ) Then figure the cost of that gain verses the expected return. I try to sell at the high point of investment verses returns. That don't always happen but it gives me somethiong to shoot for. I buy back two days later reguardless of the market unless I know its falling then I may wait another week. For the most part if you try to sell high and buy low you will have a pasture that is not loaded to fulll capacity all year. Cattle in someone elses pasture are not making me any money.

I have done some short term sell / buy calf deals. It is hard to come out if you are processing the calves, paying shipping, paying commission... I call it buy low - - sell low. You do see the occasional real deal on rough stuff like horned yearling bulls but you earn your money working on them.

I see the sales barn jockeys buying calves, hauling them to the next sales barn that same afternoon, and then reselling the next morning. This seems to work if you really know your local markets.

I didn't say it wasn't risky, I do all right doing this. My motto is not to try to make a lot of money at once. Try to make a little a lot of the time.

 

[J&T Farm]

I usually buy cattle high and sell cheap. Of course that goes with nearly everything else I buy and sell seems like. Vehicles, tractors, equipment, etc,etc,etc.

 

[NewCowboy]

The 300-550 weights seem to flucuate quite a bit and if their high then I'm prone to cashing in, but on the most part the 600-700 have been steady at 1.00 or a little higher and thats generally what I shoot for. A cow only gives you a calf once a year so why not wait for the $650-$700 a head paycheck(giving that your pasture is in good shape and you are not having to feed excessfully to put gains on them).

This is what we want to do (see above). We have plenty of pasture and could keep ours longer. Father wants to sell his at lower weights due to the price being higher saying that either way you get the approximate price....ie 1.00/lb for 700 lb calf and say 1.39/lb for 450 lb calf. Is there a truth to this? Comments?

 

[Beefy]

a lot of times i will sell lighter b/c when you take into account feed (winter) and condition of the cow you come out about the same as you would if you had heavier calves, plus the cows are in better shape for next calf.

 

[Dave]

I usually buy when they are high and sell when they are low and pay the freight both ways. But I make it up in volume.

Dave