SBMF 2015
Well-known member
I pay my bills every year, and keep doing it. I must be making enough to suit me.
whats driving cattle prices up so much
- Thread starter dieselbeef
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I pay my bills every year, and keep doing it. I must be making enough to suit me.
MurraysMutts
Well-known member
Or you and I and a bunch of others are all insane.....
Honestly......Or you and I and a bunch of others are all insane.....
Beef consumption continues to rise despite the best attempt from Washington's elite to curtail it.
Imo most any product pricing always boils down to supply and demand. And there appears to be plenty of the demand for quality beef.
Some products do not have a demand yet you can be successful supplying a product if you can create the demand.
Best example I can think of ...some smart guy, I believe he was a plumber decided to make colored pipe insulation and call it pool noodles !
There was no demand for pool noodles until he invented them.
Imo most any product pricing always boils down to supply and demand. And there appears to be plenty of the demand for quality beef.
Some products do not have a demand yet you can be successful supplying a product if you can create the demand.
Best example I can think of ...some smart guy, I believe he was a plumber decided to make colored pipe insulation and call it pool noodles !
There was no demand for pool noodles until he invented them.
Jeanne - Simme Valley
Well-known member
Nice to hear from you, dieselbeef. You have had a tough road to handle. Raising a boy alone is tough enough - let alone everything else. Hang in there.
Conditions continue to get worse. The sale I kind of judge things off of is running over 2K a week right now with no rain in sight. The fall and spring numbers are just not going to be there.
When you put inflation on top of that its hard to see any significant lower prices in the future.
When you put inflation on top of that its hard to see any significant lower prices in the future.
We have gotten a little rain bit not enough to change the tide. Sale numbers keep climbing. They are up to 2500 head now with double to triple the cows. There are a lot of 300-400 calves coming now that won't be there on the fall.
A lot of cattle leaving the area.
Caustic Burno
Well-known member
Cattle have vanished from here!
They lifted the burn ban today, we have got some rains not enough time to make hay.
Crockett numbers are coming down to 2500 a week normally around 2K .
They were running around 3500+ .
farmerjan
Well-known member
Been lines at the local stockyard the last 2-3 weeks... first time I've seen the lines in a long time... We've got right about 60 weaned off cows here at the barn lots getting bunk broke and fed some. Not sure when he wants to sell any but doubt it will be with the glut coming to sales now. The cows had pretty much dried up, and already weaned the calves themselves, and they had plenty of grass at the pastures so left them out there for as long as we dared. The first group of cows are calving a little sooner than we expected...thought they would be first of Oct but already have 11 on the ground out of 25 or so.... the next 2 groups ought to be coming middle of Oct-Nov...
I will start going in to watch prices some also... and want to go to the monthly bred cow sale in a couple weeks to see how things are doing there. Always looking for a bargain or 2.... if I can pick up a few odd balls at decent (cheap) prices, we have plenty of hay and corn silage to feed... might be able to find some that are thin... it was alot drier north of here and hay there is in short supply. Pastures burnt up this summer, and it is late for fall grass to come along even with the recent rains....
I don't know what the prices are going to look like but I told son that I think they will hold into spring of '24; but I am not sure with the economy if they will hold much after that even with the diminishing numbers. I would like to sell more off this fall and next spring and then see.... the thing that is concerning me is I see oil/fuel prices starting to climb again... and that is going to hurt EVERYTHING if they continue to climb.
I will start going in to watch prices some also... and want to go to the monthly bred cow sale in a couple weeks to see how things are doing there. Always looking for a bargain or 2.... if I can pick up a few odd balls at decent (cheap) prices, we have plenty of hay and corn silage to feed... might be able to find some that are thin... it was alot drier north of here and hay there is in short supply. Pastures burnt up this summer, and it is late for fall grass to come along even with the recent rains....
I don't know what the prices are going to look like but I told son that I think they will hold into spring of '24; but I am not sure with the economy if they will hold much after that even with the diminishing numbers. I would like to sell more off this fall and next spring and then see.... the thing that is concerning me is I see oil/fuel prices starting to climb again... and that is going to hurt EVERYTHING if they continue to climb.
SBMF 2015
Well-known member
They hammered feeders on the board today.
All classes of mrkt cattle and fed cattle were off $2+ from last week at the sale barn today.
All classes of mrkt cattle and fed cattle were off $2+ from last week at the sale barn today.
That's always the problem with holding. You may end up holding a lot longer than you planned.
farmerjan
Well-known member
Yep, it is a gamble.....
Take a realistic price of beef today. They are too low.
Look at what your $1 lb weaned calf dollars could purchase in 1979,then 88-94 compare that to what your weaned calf dollars can buy you today?
Then explain to me why calve prices are high!
What did a 3/4 pickup cost in 79vs today. How about a tractor,house,or an acre of ground. Prices aren’t even close to buying power of a weined calf in the late 1970s!
Look at what your $1 lb weaned calf dollars could purchase in 1979,then 88-94 compare that to what your weaned calf dollars can buy you today?
Then explain to me why calve prices are high!
What did a 3/4 pickup cost in 79vs today. How about a tractor,house,or an acre of ground. Prices aren’t even close to buying power of a weined calf in the late 1970s!
When looking at salebarn numbers we really need to pay more attention to cows sold than total head sold. The barns here may sell 2,000 hd a week but only 5-600 of that will be cows. To narrow it farther down half or more are open or slaughter cattle. I think looking at cows sold gives a better picture of the direction local producers are headed in. I'm hoping the futures on Feeder Cattle are correct and the market stays strong for another year but have my doubts. With operating loans at 9.5% I'm not sure how many BTOs are willing to risk it. That along with the fact the futures may or may not reflect current salebarn prices these days.
The old addage of selling calves and buying a new truck don't work anymore. If you want a 1979 model truck go buy one for 5k and put 5k more in it. You'll have a truck that'll do what one did in 1979. I like my 1996 F250 but It sure won't do much.
The old addage of selling calves and buying a new truck don't work anymore. If you want a 1979 model truck go buy one for 5k and put 5k more in it. You'll have a truck that'll do what one did in 1979. I like my 1996 F250 but It sure won't do much.
Dave
Well-known member
The other thing to look at is the area the sale is located in. I know of a couple sales that will show a large number of kill cows every week. Just a little research will show that these are in areas of lots of dairies. Their cull numbers are relatively consistent and don't reflect what is happening in the beef cow world.
I definitely don't doubt that allot of smaller operators are getting out of the biz as are older folks that don't have kids to pass the farm off to. At the same time there are guys that want to grow and have the ability to do so. CB always brings up the hay situation and he is right, we are losing a ton of hay ground as well as people baling hay. The thing producers need to realize though is cattle don't necessarily need hay. They do just fine on a good commodity mix and allot of time it's less expensive and less work to feed. As with any business you have to be willing to adapt and try new things as times change. Cattle numbers will inevitability continue to decline as cities continue to grow and developers buy farm ground. It's just a natural progression. I don’t see the rapid decline or the gloom and doom in the cattle biz most on here seem to talk about though. Cattle are still profitable you just need to be realistic and know what to expect out of them. In a post above @Brute said something to the effect of sometimes you keep them too long. I totally agree with this but will add 95% of small producer's don’t keep long enough, 75% of medium size sell too early, and the big guys have figured out calves need to be 750-800 to really make money.
I think it is totally dependent on individual situation and location. I have brought it up here before. The last several years we have made more money moving calves earlier not later. Early /mid September is better for profit then holding them until mid to late October or better. Yes calves are lighter but also bring higher dollars per pound than equivalent calves later in the year due to supply /demand.
The loss in total dollars doesn’t equate to less profit. Why ? Increase in the availability of feed for the remaining herd. Cows go into winter in better condition,require less supplementary feed throughout the winter . No such thing as saved grazing feed.
It doesn’t work with 2 plus feet of snow . And no grazing available for 4 plus months a year. Keeping and feeding calves out to 800+ lbs does make financial sense in many situations.
Dave
Well-known member
The people I bought bulls from for years over on the coast were really successful. They retained ownership on their calves and had been doing that for decades. Not selling them until they are hanging on the rail makes a lot of sense.
Remember that whole thread a while back where we were discussing paying for cattle vs using debt and the debt people were saying how cheap money was and all that. I wonder how that is going now? Did their margins go up to account for higher interest rates or did it just take a bigger chunk out of their "profits". Long term, with higher interest rates, will people with debt be able to compete with people operating on cash?
