This year's crystal ball
- Thread starter Dave
- Start date
Help Support CattleToday:
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
Bred cow prices have dropped here, down to U$S 600 to 700 for running age cows. Local buyers seem to have run out of orders, and the regular weekly sales do not bring in out of state buyers. Even with the low purchase price - - you will still have $ 1100 to 1300 of direct costs into a moderate cow by the time you turn her out to pasture. Would this pencil out a profit for you in the fall of 2022?
Dave
Well-known member
I saw some decent broken mouth cows last week sell for $500. But this time last year I was buying cows for $500. And I averaged $670 by the time I was done buying in January. To meet my hay budget from last year I have to wait until the first of February to start buying. One of the problems along with expensive hay is just finding hay for sale at any price. I heard one guy talking about hauling down to some lower forest circus ground down along the Snake River and just turning out. Paying trespass fines is cheaper than buying hay. We have had a lot of rain recently. Things have greened up and a lot of cows are still out. The longer the cows are able to stay out the more pressure there will be for the hay guys to sell. It is a real crap shoot this year. The smart thing might be to sit this one out.
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
Some current cow buyers are betting on a strong price increase next fall. I think heifers would have more appreciation potential than cows per ton of winter hay.
The others need something to feed all winter. I think light calf VOG could pencil if you need to feed daily.
But, going ice fishing might be the smart thing.
Last edited:
Dave
Well-known member
Going ice fishing here is probably not the smart thing. Probably enough ice to make launching a boat difficult but not enough to stand on.
I think the young bull thing was a good idea. But suddenly several other people have the same idea and they appear to have deeper pockets than I do. No sales here next week because of Thanksgiving. We will see what December brings.
I think the young bull thing was a good idea. But suddenly several other people have the same idea and they appear to have deeper pockets than I do. No sales here next week because of Thanksgiving. We will see what December brings.
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
Limited hay on the market here and prices have bounced up to U$S 200-230/T for over 100 RFV. Futures market shows feeder prices up 10% next fall, but obviously that will not cover feed cost increases. Could be a good year for millet in 2022.
Some ND (two years of drought) producers are shipping breds to MN (one year of drought) cow sales. Sounds desperate.
Some ND (two years of drought) producers are shipping breds to MN (one year of drought) cow sales. Sounds desperate.
Last edited:
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
How much are replacement quality heifer calves back compared to steers?
Dave
Well-known member
I would be all over $200 hay. I saw an ad for $240 hay. I thought that isn't too bad. A closer look it was $240 a bale for 3x4x8 big squares that will weigh about 1,100 pounds. Saw another ad for $80 a bale for 3 tie grass hay. This stuff is getting stupid.
Named'em Tamed'em
Well-known member
I saw 285/ton at the stack. Big bales in E.Wa. today
Dave
Well-known member
Yep, I see two ads for $270 a ton. One in Hermiston the other in New Plymouth Idaho. Add $20-$30 a ton for delivery. There is a fair amount sitting around in stacks with the producers sitting on it figuring the price will go up by late winter. I have news for them. Cows will just get sold.
SBMF 2015
Well-known member
Thursday, November 18, 2021 - Special Feeder sale
This week's special consisted of 1340 cattle from 108 consigners and features 2 loads of yearling steers and 2 loads of yearling heifers. The bulk of the sale was made up of mostly small groups of feeders weighing from 500-700# from a wide range of management practices.
Overall the market was stronger as there were several new faces in the crowd.
Next specials will be a cow sale on Thursday, December 2 at noon
| Bulls | ||||||||
| 300-500# | 125.00 | to | 182.00 | Avg. | 160.00 | |||
| 500-600# | 120.00 | to | 141.00 | Avg. | 133.00 | |||
| 600-800# | 101.00 | to | 124.00 | Avg. | 118.00 | |||
| Steers | 300-400# | 150.00 | to | 191.00 | Avg. | 170/.00 | Load Lots | |
| 400-500# | 148.00 | to | 186.00 | Avg. | 164.00 | 822# @ 160.00 | ||
| 500-600#. | 145.00 | to | 180.00 | Avg. | 160.00 | 958# @ 150.00 | ||
| 600-700# | 140.00 | to | 169.00 | Avg. | 153.00 | |||
| 700-800# | 130.00 | to | 159.00 | Avg. | 144.00 | |||
| 800-900# | 120.00 | to | 160.00 | Avg. | 140.00 | |||
| 900-1000# | 110.00 | to | 151.25 | Avg. | 130.00 | |||
| Heifers | 300-400# | 140.00 | to | 182.00 | Avg. | 150.00 | Loadlots | |
| ` | 400-500# | 142.00 | to | 173.00 | Avg. | 152.00 | 799# @ 139.00 | |
| 500-600# | 138.00 | to | 163.00 | Avg. | 138.00 | 857# @ 138.00 | ||
| 600-700# | 30.00 | to | 163.00 | Avg. | 138.00 | |||
| 700-800# | 122.00 | to | 139.00 | Avg. | 126.00 | |||
| 800-900# | 110.00 | to | 138.00 | Avg. | 120.00 | |||
| 900-1000# | 110.00 | to | 128.00 | Avg. | 123.00 |
I'd say anything worth bringing home to make cows out of were $0.03-$0.10 higher than the avg steers.
I still like the price of those big bull calves.
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
Seems like a number of folks are planning on 2014 all over again, but there is not any heifer hay available here. Guys are selling some swamp hay with 3 to 6% CP.
I still like ice fishing. Could sell some of my hay and buy an Ice Castle wheel house... Would this be a business expense if I parked it in my calving pasture?
Last edited:
SBMF 2015
Well-known member
Dave
Well-known member
Well my light bull idea got shifted today to light steers and heifers. I bought 3 steers and 6 heifers. They averaged 362 pounds and cost $1.28 a pound. I am a bit of a bottom feeder on these calves. The few light bulls they had sold for more than I wanted to pay. The guy sitting beside me bought nearly 200 light steers. One group of 33 reputation steer calves weighing 335 he paid $2.17. Not in my budget to do that.
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
My butter ball calves are on dead oats and turnips. It was better feed a month ago. It is turning color and going down now.
Loading up on beet tailings for the next ration. The price jumped once field work ended and guys got serious about trucking. I paid U$S 22 per ton delivered today. I might have become a back grounder?
Loading up on beet tailings for the next ration. The price jumped once field work ended and guys got serious about trucking. I paid U$S 22 per ton delivered today. I might have become a back grounder?
Last edited:
I got 8 little calves yesterday for about the same money Canadian Dave. One is a bull, three are steers.
kenny thomas
Well-known member
This brings up a point we were discussing in another topic, there are lots of 3wt calves sold at reasonable prices and it's way below production cost. Any cow with that small of a calf should be a cull. Do you think their mommas were all in the slaughter pens? I bet not.
Dave
Well-known member
Only one of my 9 was branded. In this area that fact points toward a back yard hobby farm. Two of the steers I bought together. They weighed 425 and cost me $1.47. A good 25-30 cents under what that class was selling for. The big buyers sitting on their hands. My bet is they weren't weaned or vaccinated. Well they are weaned now and will be vaccinated in a couple of hours.
There was no shortage of kill cows yesterday. The sale started at 12:15. It was 4:30 when I left. When I loaded out there must have been over 100 open cows that hadn't been through the tagging chute yet.
Not likely, lots of people make excuses or don't know
Dave
Well-known member
I went to a bred cow sale today just on a scouting trip. Cows topped at $1,400. Most were around $1,200. The broken mouth cow deal sure wouldn't work today. The kill buyers bought all those bigger framed cows weighing 1,300-1,200 pounds. They were paying $800 a head. Hay twice as expensive and cows costing an extra $150. That just don't pencil for me. The buy of the day was some good bred black heifers from a reputation ranch weighing a little over 1,000 which sold for $1,000. They were bred 6 months.
