This year's crystal ball

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Stocker Steve

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Bred cow prices have dropped here, down to U$S 600 to 700 for running age cows. Local buyers seem to have run out of orders, and the regular weekly sales do not bring in out of state buyers. Even with the low purchase price - - you will still have $ 1100 to 1300 of direct costs into a moderate cow by the time you turn her out to pasture. Would this pencil out a profit for you in the fall of 2022?
 
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Dave

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Bred cow prices have dropped here, down to U$S 600 to 700 for running age cows. Local buyers seem to have run out of orders, and the regular weekly sales do not bring in out of state buyers. Even with the low purchase price - - you will still have $ 1100 to 1300 of direct costs into a moderate cow by the time you turn her out to pasture. Would this pencil out a profit for you in the fall of 2022?
I saw some decent broken mouth cows last week sell for $500. But this time last year I was buying cows for $500. And I averaged $670 by the time I was done buying in January. To meet my hay budget from last year I have to wait until the first of February to start buying. One of the problems along with expensive hay is just finding hay for sale at any price. I heard one guy talking about hauling down to some lower forest circus ground down along the Snake River and just turning out. Paying trespass fines is cheaper than buying hay. We have had a lot of rain recently. Things have greened up and a lot of cows are still out. The longer the cows are able to stay out the more pressure there will be for the hay guys to sell. It is a real crap shoot this year. The smart thing might be to sit this one out.
 

Stocker Steve

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The longer the cows are able to stay out the more pressure there will be for the hay guys to sell. It is a real crap shoot this year. The smart thing might be to sit this one out.
Some current cow buyers are betting on a strong price increase next fall. I think heifers would have more appreciation potential than cows per ton of winter hay.

The others need something to feed all winter. I think light calf VOG could pencil if you need to feed daily.

But, going ice fishing might be the smart thing.
 
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Dave

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Going ice fishing here is probably not the smart thing. Probably enough ice to make launching a boat difficult but not enough to stand on.
I think the young bull thing was a good idea. But suddenly several other people have the same idea and they appear to have deeper pockets than I do. No sales here next week because of Thanksgiving. We will see what December brings.
 

Stocker Steve

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Limited hay on the market here and prices have bounced up to U$S 200-230/T for over 100 RFV. Futures market shows feeder prices up 10% next fall, but obviously that will not cover feed cost increases. Could be a good year for millet in 2022.

Some ND (two years of drought) producers are shipping breds to MN (one year of drought) cow sales. Sounds desperate.
 
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Dave

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I would be all over $200 hay. I saw an ad for $240 hay. I thought that isn't too bad. A closer look it was $240 a bale for 3x4x8 big squares that will weigh about 1,100 pounds. Saw another ad for $80 a bale for 3 tie grass hay. This stuff is getting stupid.
 
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Dave

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I saw 285/ton at the stack. Big bales in E.Wa. today
Yep, I see two ads for $270 a ton. One in Hermiston the other in New Plymouth Idaho. Add $20-$30 a ton for delivery. There is a fair amount sitting around in stacks with the producers sitting on it figuring the price will go up by late winter. I have news for them. Cows will just get sold.
 

SBMF 2015

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How much are replacement quality heifer calves back compared to steers?
Thursday, November 18, 2021 - Special Feeder sale

This week's special consisted of 1340 cattle from 108 consigners and features 2 loads of yearling steers and 2 loads of yearling heifers. The bulk of the sale was made up of mostly small groups of feeders weighing from 500-700# from a wide range of management practices.

Overall the market was stronger as there were several new faces in the crowd.

Next specials will be a cow sale on Thursday, December 2 at noon

Bulls
300-500#125.00to182.00Avg.160.00
500-600#120.00to141.00Avg.133.00
600-800#101.00to124.00Avg.118.00
Steers300-400#150.00to191.00Avg.170/.00 Load Lots
400-500#148.00to186.00Avg.164.00 822# @ 160.00
500-600#.145.00to180.00Avg.160.00 958# @ 150.00
600-700#140.00to169.00Avg.153.00
700-800#130.00to159.00Avg.144.00
800-900#120.00to160.00Avg.140.00
900-1000#110.00to151.25Avg.130.00
Heifers300-400#140.00to182.00Avg.150.00 Loadlots
`400-500#142.00to173.00Avg.152.00 799# @ 139.00
500-600#138.00to163.00Avg.138.00 857# @ 138.00
600-700#30.00to163.00Avg.138.00
700-800#122.00to139.00Avg.126.00
800-900#110.00to138.00Avg.120.00
900-1000#110.00to128.00Avg.123.00

I'd say anything worth bringing home to make cows out of were $0.03-$0.10 higher than the avg steers.
I still like the price of those big bull calves.
 

Stocker Steve

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I'd say anything worth bringing home to make cows out of were $0.03-$0.10 higher than the avg steers.
I still like the price of those big bull calves.
Seems like a number of folks are planning on 2014 all over again, but there is not any heifer hay available here. Guys are selling some swamp hay with 3 to 6% CP.

I still like ice fishing. Could sell some of my hay and buy an Ice Castle wheel house... Would this be a business expense if I parked it in my calving pasture?
 
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SBMF 2015

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Gr
Seems like a number of folks are planning on 2014 all over again. Good thing my heifers are replacement quality.

There is not any heifer hay available here. Some swamp hay around at 3 to 6% CP.

I still like ice fishing. Could sell my hay and buy an Ice Castle?
Grind the junk hay, add some gluten and balancer.

Or relax and enjoy winter.
 

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