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The US dollar is crashing.

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Son of Butch

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Bitcoin is above $35,000 from $12,000 a few months ago. I’d say physical precious metals and crypto currency would be much safer than USD. M1 money supply is mad. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m1
Bitcoin value
Nov 5 2020 $15,561
Dec 17 $22,900
Today 1/9/2021 bitcoin $40,771

Today a friend told me that I should buy bitcoins- that he invested $10,000
in bitcoins at the end of November on advice of a mutual friend and it has
doubled in value.
His best friend bought 4 bitcoins 4 years ago for $5,000 - today's value $163,000

I'd cash out 1 and let the other 3 ride if it was me.
He said me too, but nope Derek says he wants a million and won't sell any before $250,000 - you should think about it.

All I know is, coming late to the party is a good way to get your head handed to you.
 
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simme

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Bitcoin value
Nov 5 2020 $15,561
Dec 17 $22,900
Today 1/9/2021 bitcoin $40,771

Today a friend told me that I should buy bitcoins- that he invested $10,000
in bitcoins at the end of November on advice of a mutual friend and it has
doubled in value.
His best friend bought 4 bitcoins 4 years ago for $5,000 - today's value $163,000

I'd cash out 1 and ride the other 3 if it was me.
He said me too, but nope Derek says he wants a million and won't sell any before $250,000 - you should think about it.

All I know is, coming late to the party is a good way to get your head handed to you.
VERY true. I don't know anything about bitcoin. But I have been around long enough to learn from experience. One of the best teachers is a BAD experience. In the 90's, technology became the thing. Prices exploded. How could you lose? Technology is the future. In 1999, there was the technology crash. I owned a technology sector fund that I had purchased over a long period that had done very well. Almost overnight, it lost 90% of its value. Rapidly rising prices are often based on a house of cards that will come crashing down SO quickly that people are in disbelief until it is too late. Happens many times. Keep your parachute ready.
 

simme

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Building on my post above, obviously it is better to buy things when they are cheap and sell them when they are high. In practice, that is hard to do because of emotions. When prices are high and rising, the mob mentality becomes that the market is doing well, there are lots of opportunity and time to make money by putting more money in. Everybody else has made money, I need to as well.
When markets have fell with prices getting lower and lower for a long time, the mob tends to get discouraged, thinks the future is bleak and decides they better get out while there is at least a little value left. Ends up that many end up buying when prices are high and selling when prices are low. Sometimes just prior to a long bull market with lots of money about to be made. Buy low and sell high seems simple, but many times hard to follow.
Put that in terms of cattle prices. Was 2014 a good year to expand the herd or cull the herd? What about 2020 and 2021. Good time to sell out or expand. Hard to be sure, but often times ends up very different than expected in just a short time. Some people say that it is best to do the opposite of what most people are doing.
Tine to buy Bitcoin or sell? Some things I suspect are true in both the cattle business and in investing. Sticking with a long term plan based on moderate expectations will be more successful over the long haul than jumping in and out of the current "hot" plan - FOR MOST. There will always be those people who hit the lottery jackpot every time. Just hard to be that person. The price paid for the opportunity of large profits is the risk of big losses. I have a hard time taking my own advice.
 

Son of Butch

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Bitcoin value
Nov 5 2020 $15,561
Dec 17 $22,900
Today 1/9/2021 bitcoin $40,771

All I know is, coming late to the party is a good way to get your head handed to you.
Update
Bitcoin 40,771
today $35,828

- 12% overnight drop in 5 minutes... from 12:05 am to 12:10 am
talk about a volatile market!!!

one analyst says profit taking market correction and it will break 50,000
by the end of the year. Another says bitcoin will break 100k in 5 years.
jpmorgan says long term projection 146,000 peak in 10 years
 
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dcarp

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“Buy land, they aren’t making it anymore” - Mark Twain.

most everything has a up & down price cycle, but most of those things can and will fade away or disappear. Land will always be there despite the price cycle.
We overpaid when we bought the land adjacent to us. Now that land is worth 3 times what we paid.
 

Son of Butch

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“Buy land, they aren’t making it anymore” - Mark Twain.
Clever for his time, however no longer true as China has made peninsulas
and islands, by relocating soil from other locations.

Buy land only if you want land.
The time and expense to liquidate it lowers the desirability as an investment.

ps
Mark Twain filed bankruptcy. However to his credit, although not legally responsible, he repaid all of his creditors.
 

hurleyjd

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Update
Bitcoin 40,771
today $35,828

- 12% overnight drop in 5 minutes... from 12:05 am to 12:10 am
talk about a volatile market!!!

one analyst says profit taking market correction and it will break 50,000
by the end of the year. Another says bitcoin will break 100k in 5 years.
jpmorgan says long term projection 146,000 peak in 10 years
There are several articles today on yahoo finance warning about bitcoin.
 

shaz

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One thing that scares me is the S&P index becoming over exposed to Tesla. When these index funds start buying it the amount will be based on a market cap that is larger than Facebook. One bad earnings statement and the index takes a significant hit.
 

shaz

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Clever for his time, however no longer true as China has made peninsulas
and islands, by relocating soil from other locations.

Buy land only if you want land.
The time and expense to liquidate it lowers the desirability as an investment.

ps
Mark Twain filed bankruptcy. However to his credit, although not legally responsible, he repaid all of his creditors.
That "land" China built probably cost several hundred thousand per square foot.
 

Son of Butch

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Never said ocean front property is cheap. Similar thing was done to 'make' land in San Francisco Bay over 100 yrs ago. I was only pointing out Mark Twain's 1880s observation was out of date to modern reality.
 

TennesseeTuxedo

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Never said ocean front property is cheap. Similar thing was done to 'make' land in San Francisco Bay over 100 yrs ago. I was only pointing out Mark Twain's 1880s observation was out of date to modern reality.
Technically he was correct. The land that has been built in recent years used other land that was relocated.
 

jltrent

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When the Liberals get their $2000 stimulus there will be so many dollar chasing so few goods inflation will rampage. They are fixing to destroy what Covid created economy we have left out of the gate, economics 101. Biden's 100 million vaccines' in the first 100 days will cause shortages for second shots. If the virus mutates because of a weakened vaccine immunity we all maybe in a world of hurt with a super super bug. I see a long 4 years and at the end of it things will be worse than when Carter left and people will want change like history before.
 
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jltrent

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Use the Stimulus money to buy more guns and ammo if you can find it. Then send Pelosi a thank you note with a picture of what you bought so she knows you used the money instead of just putting it in the bank.
Dang good idea.......I need a few more kits to finish some lowers for some black guns. I will put the money to good use.
 

hurleyjd

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When the Liberals get their $2000 stimulus there will be so many dollar chasing so few goods inflation will rampage. They are fixing to destroy what Covid created economy we have left out of the gate, economics 101. Biden's 100 million vaccines' in the first 100 days will cause shortages for second shots. If the virus mutates because of a weakened vaccine immunity we all maybe in a world of hurt with a super super bug. I see a long 4 years and at the end of it things will be worse than when Carter left and people will want change like history before.
Paul Volcker ruined Carter with the high interest rates he held up to fight inflation. Carter had about 750 billion national debt made it easy for Reagan to fiance his tax cuts by borrowing money to keep the money flowing in a jucied up economy founded on debt..
 

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