The poor cattle market

[Alberta farmer]

In Alberta we've got a pretty negative market for our cattle. I think the same thing could be said for most of North America? Not sure about everyones numbers but I doubt any cattle producer is making money?
In Alberta we have some things going for us...and lots going against us!
We do have a very vibrant economy which is a help in that a lot of oil/gas money finds its way into the rural community. It also creates problems but probably is a plus. We also have a provincial government that tries to support and promote agriculture. Our federal government is pretty much useles!
Of course being in the darned artic presents a lot of challenge as we get about 120 frost free days out of the year...not much time for crops or grass to grow.
In 1992 we sold our big steer calves for $1.22/lb. Today the same calves are about .98 cents. In the meantime fuel has more than doubled, fertilizer up at least 300%, equipment costs at least 200%. Land taxes about double. Now if the darned calves had only doubled...$2.44/lb.! I think I could live with that!
A lot of old time cow herds are being dispersed up here. Part of the problem is the producers have just got too old and wore out with no new blood coming in, and partly people have just run out of money. How about other areas? How do you see this playing out?

 

[dyates]

Pretty much same song and dance here. The only people truly hanging on were those who didn't really know they were losing money, or didn't care. Now, the numbers are so bad that even those people who don't keep good records know they are losing money. Whole herds are going to the salebarn in droves. There will eventually have to be some sort of correction in the market, or there will be no domestic beef. Only time will tell when that correction will be and who will be able to hold out until it gets here.

 

[HerefordSire]

During this consolidation, try creating a unique product.

 

[dun]

Last week the local markets were 6-8 higher, this week they're 1-2 lower

 

[holly heifer]

calves brought .70 at sale barn. :cry2: They were 400 to 500 lbs. each. Old bull brought .50.

 

[backhoeboogie]

We went to buy some while the prices are down. There was nothing there we wanted. Black calves and cows with short ear. We came home empty. I'll try again at a bigger sale barn.

 

[Arkieman]

There will eventually have to be some sort of correction in the market, or there will be no domestic beef.

I'm afraid folks won't care until it's too late and the U.S. is crippled by some beef-borne disease or held hostage by Brazil or some other foreign supplier (similar to the way the Saudi's have us by the ***** now over oil!)

 

[Brandonm22]

I think that the long term trend is towards a smaller cow herd. Economically, it tends to favor a larger sized commercial herd (~500 head); but in most counties land is too high to raise that many cows in a low input manner. A lot of people have ramped up production per acre; but high fertilizer and high supplement feed prices make that a losing proposition. Even with the current building slowdown, longterm metro areas are expanding outward, new property owners tend to come from an urban environ and increasingly see land as a place to park money. They are less interested in punching cows 24/7.

 

[rockridgecattle]

Alberta Farmer,
I'm a Manitoba Farmer. Thank fully you have a provincial government who will support you. We have the confounded NDP brought in by the urbanites. They could care less about any farmer be it grain, pigs, cows, chickens or anything else. They have pretty muched closed the door on the pig business here, and could care less that 50% of it's cattle producers can not afford to buy hay since they either got droughted out or flooded out. We got flooded out.
We sold our calves for a frightfull price and liquidated 1/2 of our herd at a substancial loss. It was that or they all starved.

It's trouble some that for some reason we can not seem to get a break. One has to really love cows right now to stay in the game. I love cows but I have to admit I am a little frayed right now.

But i have one question...if we all are getting crap for our prices, how is it the price has not come down in the stores to encourage more buying of our product? dumb question I know

 

[Workinonit Farm]

how is it the price has not come down in the stores to encourage more buying of our product?

Apparently the average consumer is willing to continue paying the high prices. Perhaps they don't even question it, they just accept it. But raise the price of milk or gas and they are screaming.

I don't know that lowering the price would encourage more purchases of it, maybe it would.

I just know that each day, it gets more and more difficult for me to not scream about the screwed up economy. :roll:

I'm going to ride it out for as long as I can, as best as I can.

Katherine

 

[grubbie]

Im feelin pretty lucky. The prices here are still good. 4 and 5 weights goin as high as 1.20, even the bad ones are still above 1.00.
http://www.bellefourchelivestock.com/Be ... -13-08.pdf

 

[Onthebit]

During this consolidation, try creating a unique product.

i sold the bugger for 200$ profit..........grass finnished!

 

[Brandonm22]

It's trouble some that for some reason we can not seem to get a break. One has to really love cows right now to stay in the game. I love cows but I have to admit I am a little frayed right now.

But i have one question...if we all are getting crap for our prices, how is it the price has not come down in the stores to encourage more buying of our product? dumb question I know

We were all asking this when I got out of hogs in 98. Cash top hogs were bringing as low as 18 cents a pound. The explanation we got is that the grocers don't want to pass on the savings to the consumer because there will be price resistance when it goes back up. If people get used to $.89 a lb porkchops or $2.99 ribeyes the theory is that they will buy less when it returns to a sustainable price. Of course that is also a convnient excuse for grocers pocketing the profits. Also with feeder calves, the packers and the feedlots have een losing money for a while. It was past time for them to pass that on to the cow-calf segment. I could be wrong; but I suspect we will see more foreign product in the stores in the future.

 

[backhoeboogie]

It's trouble some that for some reason we can not seem to get a break. One has to really love cows right now to stay in the game. I love cows but I have to admit I am a little frayed right now.

But i have one question...if we all are getting crap for our prices, how is it the price has not come down in the stores to encourage more buying of our product? dumb question I know

We were all asking this when I got out of hogs in 98. Cash top hogs were bringing as low as 18 cents a pound. The explanation we got is that the grocers don't want to pass on the savings to the consumer because there will be price resistance when it goes back up. If people get used to $.89 a lb porkchops or $2.99 ribeyes the theory is that they will buy less when it returns to a sustainable price. Of course that is also a convnient excuse for grocers pocketing the profits. Also with feeder calves, the packers and the feedlots have een losing money for a while. It was past time for them to pass that on to the cow-calf segment. I could be wrong; but I suspect we will see more foreign product in the stores in the future.

They can always price it at $19.99 per pound and offer it 80% off. That seems to be a good marketing scheme. When prices go up, just offer it at 50% off.

 

[Stocker Steve]

The only people truly hanging on were those who didn't really know they were losing money, or didn't care. Now, the numbers are so bad that even those people who don't keep good records know they are losing money. Whole herds are going to the salebarn in droves. There will eventually have to be some sort of correction in the market, or there will be no domestic beef. Only time will tell when that correction will be and who will be able to hold out until it gets here.

My neighbor bought $1,200 cows three years ago - - and now he is cry'in the blues and shipping some of them. Our 11/10 market report said the year to date beef cow slaughter is:
17.6% higher than 2007
22.6% higher than 2006
34% higher than 2005
I see a trend here...

The kill market will come back in a couple years, but cow/calf prices may not if grain stays high. So I think we will have blended fuel and high priced food but that will not include profit for those who can not raise a calf for $1 a pound. The US government is focused on subsidizing ethanol now and beef producers are on their own.

I am going to a bred cow sale on Saturday. Plan to be all in by January. Wish me luck. :cboy:

 

[EAT BEEF]

Rock on. I like to stand up about the time everyone else takes a seat.