1982vett":p458drqa said:
agmantoo":p458drqa said:
The drought here has been minor this year compared to past droughts and what many or you are experiencing. A severe drought can and will knock anyone's knees from under them. Each individual has his own risk tolerance and goals and only the individual knows what is acceptable to them. I have not yet recovered from the 2007-2008 drought we experienced. Not only were my pastures adversely impacted, my earnings since were because I have not had the number of feeder calves to market . In retrospect I have concluded that I would have been ahead to have forfeited a years income by buying expensive trucked hay and maintaining the brood stock in BCS at not less than 5 and rested all the pastures. Had I done that I believe that I could have resumed the before drought daily operations with the resulting income once rains returned. Instead, I have been impacted with a reduction of brood stock that will take time to replenish, some cattle were slower to cycle due to reduced body condition, the pastures were harmed extensively and the before drought income took a hit for 2 years following the drought. The pastures still have not recovered to the before drought condition. The reason that I posted this was to suggest to look forward as to the impact along with the current situation. I did not have that foresight as I had never experienced such severe
drought.
Good enough advice....but take to take it a little farther....
What I've seen since 1996, basically my first run in with drought...we came into a dry spell in early spring which broke in late July....made plenty of forage for pasture and hay...Oats were planted early early September.....from then we had wet spells and dry spells...usually lasting 2 - 3 months
June to August...learned to work with that pattern....first sign of change was 2006 dry spring...some moisture in summer and dry fall. Oat planting time slipped all the way to mid-October....when moisture began to return...Then 2007....2008...wet spells were 3 months long usually Jan - Mar...then 2009 dry till September and 80% of the years rainfall average fell in 3 months before tapering off and leaving 2010 15 inches short for the year...At present I'm 16 inches behind for this year....Oats, few had any grazing from them at all since it was a Christmas Eve rain that brought them up.
What am I getting at....It's still getting worse, not better. pretty much the same weather South Texas has experienced since 1996 except for the occasional tropical storm passing by. Dry spells are longer and wet spells are a few days long about 40 to 60 days apart.... Look at my avatar... From 1996 to Now is 15 years....I'll wager it WILL NOT change tomorrow and WILL NOT return to "Normal" any time in the near future....This isn't localized as it once was where you can feed thru it. I'm not screaming and Al Gore climate change...Dig up the long range forecasts from 94 and 95....for our area they predicted below normal precipitation for 15 - 20 years...(el nino, la nina effects :roll: ) some how I guess they got it right...which means we shouldn't expect "change" for another couple years....and what they didn't say - if it take 15 - 20 years to get here it is probably going to take that long to get back....roughly means another 7 before we get back to the wonderful 2006 conditions....
IF it turns on a dime TODAY!
Folks better understand the difference between "localized" and "wide-spread"...one you can feed thru and hit the ground running....the other you run till you hit the ground.
No amount of MIG grazing or pasture rotation is going to fix that.
This is what I've seen and learned since 1996. ;-)
Vette, checked our fire forcast today and it shows the next 15 years to be bad also. Most of Texas and parts of Ok.
