Things in general are starting to weaken here. Dealerships seem to be scaling back employees, and less equipment on the lots. The "They Say" rumor mill says a few BTO are going to sell out. I do know my friends in banking and finance are saying several people are coming in with excuses instead of payments. On a personal note, I did terrible on a couple of big runs of feeder calves this fall. Seeing the same thing where you are from?
The farm economy in your area?
- Thread starter Bigfoot
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JMJ Farms
Well-known member
Bigfoot the ones in my area that will be farming next year are the ones that have been doing it for decades and know how to save money. Gonna be a lot of the smaller guys and younger farmers that are not going to be able to go again next year. No big cattle operations around me. Just the folks with old money who have inherited and managed it well. Dealerships are closing and consolidating. Some going from a true dealership to parts only. I blame it on people living too high on the hog for some of the ag problems. Blame our govt for the rest. But I guess the people are just mimicking the govt!
Aaron
Well-known member
Everyone is still flying high here from the fall. I think it will be a big attitude change in the spring if prices keep dipping. Be interesting to see how the backgrounders make out next spring and fall. I have two neighbors who bought majority of my steers and I don't think their returns on them will be too great just because of the price dipping. Farmland is still being bought/sold/rented for ridiculous prices, relative to here. One big change I am seeing is 1/2 of the dairy guys are in the process of getting out. Regulations are getting to be too much for them. The grain farmers are going full bore, all or nothing.
M-5
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I heard this week a young farmer here filed bankruptcy. Idk for sure but he's planting wheat this week before the rains.
Nesikep
Well-known member
Things are steady here... our crap dollar is keeping prices up, and low oil prices are helping on the costs side, but anything like parts we're paying through the nose for.. I'm going to wait and see what next year brings.. might be stocking up on fuel here soon.
I see no reason why folks get bailed out. Bad decisions and or lifestyle shouldn't cost anyone but you. Bankruptcy and bailouts benefit the crooks. And when the price of fuel goes back to $4+ dollars a gallon and interest rates climb back to 10-15% to where they should be. The farmer and rancher that depends on financing will be broke.
Interest rates at 10-15% for what? Credit cards maybe.
For cars, equipment, home loans. Credit card debt should be lots higher, if you can't afford it you shouldn't have it. Getting 3-4% interest rates on CD'S is BS. I can't print more $money, I have to live off of what I made and saved.
CDs paid pretty well when Jimmy Carter was President. I don't know of too may folks yearning to return to those bad old days.
greybeard
Well-known member
Once you start charging higher int rates for risky borrowers, we're right back down the same sub-prime road as before. Don't charge them higher rates--simply refuse to lend them the $$. Higher int rate won't help one bit when they default.
JMJ Farms
Well-known member
ram":1btholdx said:
Just because you have to borrow money doesn't necessarily mean you can't afford something. I have no problem with someone who wants to save their money and wait till they can pay for something before they buy it. But if you have to save enough money to build a house or buy a car, you will be a ripe old age. I look at it like this. I ain't guaranteed to wake up in the morning. I want to enjoy life a little while I'm here. I don't borrow money to buy toys. I don't use credit cards to buy stuff I don't need. But if I had to have enough money in my checking account to front all my operating expenses..... I'd be renting a house and riding a moped. I started with nothing, and still ain't got much, but if I never borrowed any money, I'd still have nothing. I have very little personal debt, but I've got a good bit of business debt that I considered "good debt". Not attacking you ram! to each their own. Nothing wrong with saving. Nothing wrong with borrowing. But in the end, you wind up in the same place.... We all gonna leave here with what we came with, some are just gonna have a lot more in between.
TexasBred
Well-known member
Absolutely. And home loans were 16%, consumer loans charging up to the legal maximum. Inflation in double digits.....ram wants income for himself but could care less what rate consumers have to pay. People could live with 7% home loan rates. That was almost the norm for ages. About 4.5% of VA and FHA loans. Consumer loans a bit higher and banks could still pay the depositor as much as 6% on CD's. If the "big money" savers couldn't live on that 6% they should adjust their lifestyle as well.TennesseeTuxedo":3pcdp7g5 said:
TB, you got me thinking about paying interest. I've paid way more in interest than I'll ever make back no matter what the rates are. And I believe that most folks have also, and that's exactly what the rich folks and banks want.
fenceman
Well-known member
ram":hbbeezbr said:
:clap: :nod:
We're definitely seeing the effects of lower cattle prices. Folks don't build near as much fence when their getting 1.50 as when their getting 3.00. Fortunately were still blessed with plenty to do. Being debt free certainly eases the mind.
TexasBred
Well-known member
Absolutely. Banks don't stay open loaning it out for less than they're paying for it. I learned long ago that CD owners are much more greedy than the bank. No matter how much you pay them it's never enough. When we were paying 16% on CDs they wanted 18%. These were the same folks that were tickled to death wtih 7 1/2% a couple years before and had to lock it in for twice as long to get that.ram":3v8xucu7 said:
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
Aaron":1xv9h3on said:
Lots of retirement auctions selling worn out equipment this fall. Guys from 60 to 75 years old who were playing at crop farming.
Repair shops are busy.
Farmland is not selling. I had three neighbors stop in and asking me to buy or rent their ground this year. Talking heads saying its gone down 4 to 6% , but taxable value has not gone down. :???:
Small family diaries are continuing to go out. Large dairy now is over 300 cows.
Most of the cow calf guys were expanding, but a few now threatening to switch direction. I kept a lot more heifers this fall since the price is down. :cboy:
One of the three large local grain guys collected prevent plant last year and seeded down almost all his acres for beef.
I think the livestock guy can still back calculate to a profit as long as he did not pay too much to buy in. But even with 179 changes there will not be much spending up town.
OP
OP
Bigfoot
Well-known member
tom4018":z5acfyh7 said:
Hate to hear that. A "regional" equipment guru for one of the big brands told me at a meeting not long ago, that there was more dollars worth of farm equipment in Christian, Todd, and Logan counties than anywhere else in the US. When he said it, he meant based on a per farmer basis. If that makes sense? I actually wasn't surprised to hear it.
