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The fall calf run?
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<blockquote data-quote="Alberta farmer" data-source="post: 696174" data-attributes="member: 8978"><p>Aaron: I think you have the situation figured pretty correct. I find your land prices simply amazing! If land here was $45K to $60 it would all be bought up by wealthy city slickers for a playground! In fact a lot of land is being bought up for 10 times or more those amounts for "recreation use" around here!</p><p>I personally doubt the national cowherd will contract 30% to 40%? It might contract that much in Alberta...or at least central Alberta, but I can't see it happening across the country.</p><p>The American dollar is in trouble and that is giving Canada a lot of problems for exports, whether beef, pork, cars, lumber, oil and gas. The "experts" are predicting the Canadian dollar at par by the end of the year and moving higher in 2010. I hear you on the tractor deal...in fact just about every thing we import out of the USA! The multinational companies have thrown up a bunch of logjams to keep free trade from actually happening for the average Joe.</p><p>Feed is really in short supply up here and is very expensive. My neighbor sold 400 bales last week (1400 lb) for $120/bale in the field. Winter feeding will have to start fairly early here due to the pastures being so poor...probably the middle of October. I would suspect 210 days would be optomistic for many cattle producers in my area. With hay at 8.5 cents a pound the feed bill per cow is going to be over $600...just for the feed! The good news is grain is fairly cheap and there is a fair amount of straw available at around 1.5 to 2 cents a pound. A ration of 20 lbs. good barley straw, 10 lbs. barley, and about 1 lb. of 32% concentrate should work out to around $235 for the 210 days(feed only). I suspect some will do this if they want to keep their cows, but like you said there aren't a lot of spring chicks in this business anymore and this might be the thing that gives them that incentive to get out?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Alberta farmer, post: 696174, member: 8978"] Aaron: I think you have the situation figured pretty correct. I find your land prices simply amazing! If land here was $45K to $60 it would all be bought up by wealthy city slickers for a playground! In fact a lot of land is being bought up for 10 times or more those amounts for "recreation use" around here! I personally doubt the national cowherd will contract 30% to 40%? It might contract that much in Alberta...or at least central Alberta, but I can't see it happening across the country. The American dollar is in trouble and that is giving Canada a lot of problems for exports, whether beef, pork, cars, lumber, oil and gas. The "experts" are predicting the Canadian dollar at par by the end of the year and moving higher in 2010. I hear you on the tractor deal...in fact just about every thing we import out of the USA! The multinational companies have thrown up a bunch of logjams to keep free trade from actually happening for the average Joe. Feed is really in short supply up here and is very expensive. My neighbor sold 400 bales last week (1400 lb) for $120/bale in the field. Winter feeding will have to start fairly early here due to the pastures being so poor...probably the middle of October. I would suspect 210 days would be optomistic for many cattle producers in my area. With hay at 8.5 cents a pound the feed bill per cow is going to be over $600...just for the feed! The good news is grain is fairly cheap and there is a fair amount of straw available at around 1.5 to 2 cents a pound. A ration of 20 lbs. good barley straw, 10 lbs. barley, and about 1 lb. of 32% concentrate should work out to around $235 for the 210 days(feed only). I suspect some will do this if they want to keep their cows, but like you said there aren't a lot of spring chicks in this business anymore and this might be the thing that gives them that incentive to get out? [/QUOTE]
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