Stupid farmers and ranchers

[houstoncutter]

We are a stupid lot, we want to take on the feds with our guns against a party that has drones that can launch a Hellfire missile. Sorta stupid aint it.

You folks want to make a difference. Here how. You hit em in the pocketbook. Hold back your calves and grain. That will throw those futures market into a tail spin. Billions of dollars would be lost. Doesnt mean that you couldnt sale your product at a later time, but when you screw up the timely manner of delivered products the middleman takes a huge hit.

For those of you that say this is BS, I will cite two examples. Back in the drought of 93 or 94 cant remember witch one. Prices for calves here in Texas were at a all time low and just kept going lower. Cattlemen here by word of mouth, decided not to take calves to market for about 10 days. Prices went up 10 cents a pound!!!! The final example would be OPEC.....Look at the price of oil before and after Opec"s formation.

So fella's the balls in your court, you have the web to get the word out and you have the food both walking and growing on your land.Armed conflict withe the Feds is a fools folly. Food prices that are 3 to 4 times higher than now, will bring the feds to their knees begging for mercy

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Following your plan farmers and ranchers would be perceived by the general public as the bad guys. Right now the Feds are seen as the bullies.

 

[Hook]

And it would accomplish nothing. About like the entire country not buying gas for a day. Poorly conceived with no long term result

 

[Jogeephus]

Go Galt every chance you can. Why feed a beast that is only trying to harm you? Have a friend in Italy and asked him about his country's economic troubles and was surprised when he told me they had no troubles. He said the troubles were the government's and that they were broke not the people. The people had learned a long time ago how to adapt to 70% taxation by bartering and working in cash and trade.

 

[houstoncutter]

Following your plan farmers and ranchers would be perceived by the general public as the bad guys. Right now the Feds are seen as the bullies.

How do you perceive Opec members. Me, I perceive them as rich

 

[houstoncutter]

And it would accomplish nothing. About like the entire country not buying gas for a day. Poorly conceived with no long term result

No Hook this is not for a single day but for months at a time. Why do you think prices for calves always go down in the fall or up in late winter. Its all about futures. If states just staggered the sales of their calves it would hammer the futures market. Of course this will mean producers would have to get their financial house in order to do it.

How do you explain the success of Opec if withholding a commodity doesnt work

 

[Hook]

How can you compare beef production with oil production when oils production and refinery is controlled by governments world round. Especially our own? Unless, like I suspect , the Feds are working towards gvt controlled food supplies like they are oil

 

[Jalopy]

Probably should just keep my opinion to myself,but I won't. Oil is a commodity with an indefinite shelf life. Beef has a limited shelf life web if it is still growing. Once animal reaches a certain age it devalues. Also farmers and ranchers are independent and each will hold just long enough to hit their "trigger" price then they will deliver their beef. JMHO

 

[houstoncutter]

How can you compare beef production with oil production when oils production and refinery is controlled by governments world round. Especially our own? Unless, like I suspect , the Feds are working towards gvt controlled food supplies like they are oil

Indeed they are trying to control food production. you hit the nail on the head with that one. Grain and cattle are traded on futures just like oil. You wish to make a difference you interrupt the market.

Example: Hurricane in Gulf, gas prices go up 20 cents in hours. The storm hasnt damaged anything, but its the perceived threat of interruption.

 

[houstoncutter]

Probably should just keep my opinion to myself,but I won't. Oil is a commodity with an indefinite shelf life. Beef has a limited shelf life web if it is still growing. Once animal reaches a certain age it devalues. Also farmers and ranchers are independent and each will hold just long enough to hit their "trigger" price then they will deliver their beef. JMHO

Point granted Jalopy, but their is only a finite amount of storage capacity for oil just as their is for cattle and grain. With cattle, the interruption would have to be on 4 to 8 weight calves, not with finished steers.

Havent you ever wondered why the markets hate grass finished steers? They are unable to model grass fed steers in a production model

 

[mwj]

Some of the older people on the board might remember the NFO fluid milk holdout in the 60's. The members all agreed to dump there milk down the drain to force the price up to where it needed to be. Since fluid milk is perishable and has a short supply line it worked as planed. The only problem was as soon as the milk price started raising the members could not stand to see the loss so they started selling one at a time before the deal was set. When the dairy company's saw this, they were assured that they were in the drivers seat! :cry2: Tell me again how many producers will hold back cattle when the market moves up or they have bills to pay.

 

[Jalopy]

If one was really wanting to control the beef supply it should be done by controlling "anonymously" with contracts on the board of Trade. A well financed move to control only 10% of the supply whether it be the feeders or fed could move the market.
I believe it would be real difficult to do it but if done would work well.
I think it was close to this situation that the Hunt Brothers used in the late sixties to corner the soybean market.
There are a lot of rules about reporting trades now that weren't' in effect then but getting a group.under agreement would be the biggest hurdle.

This just a discussion I am not arguing just enjoying the exchange of ideas.

BTW I am not convinced that 1 or2 large beef processors haven't tried this.

 

[Hook]

If one was really wanting to control the beef supply it should be done by controlling "anonymously" with contracts on the board of Trade. A well financed move to control only 10% of the supply whether it be the feeders or fed could move the market.
I believe it would be real difficult to do it but if done would work well.
I think it was close to this situation that the Hunt Brothers used in the late sixties to corner the soybean market.
There are a lot of rules about reporting trades now that weren't' in effect then but getting a group.under agreement would be the biggest hurdle.

This just a discussion I am not arguing just enjoying the exchange of ideas.

BTW I am not convinced that 1 or2 large beef processors haven't tried this.

Being traded on open markets what you are proposing is considered insider trading. Now, if a majority of small producers in several markets were to try this it wouldn't be , but it still wouldn't amount to squat because of the sheer number of producers. Remember most of the cattle come from places with 30 hd or less

 

[ALACOWMAN]

I'd hate to mess with a good thing right now, when I leave the stockyard with check I walk out backwards.. You get a dollar a pound for a ton bull you feel a little like a bandit......

 

[Nesikep]

We needed to do this during BSE

 

[ALACOWMAN]

That would look like we had a real problem with our product...right now we got John Q public needing us. We can't raise cattle like chickens....

 

[Shanghai]

 

[lavacarancher]

Well, I was going to jump in but everyone else beat me to it. What I was going to say is it will never work because no one would believe it would work and therefore not participate. Got to organize and participate 100%. Give you two examples (one of which has already been mentioned - OPEC) and the other is what Martin Luther King did for the civil rights movement.

I'll be brief. 60 years ago I went to town with my Grand Dad on a wagon loaded with tomatoes. When we got to the tomato shed they were only paying $0.03 per pound which grand dad refused. They told him to take it or leave it. Grand dad pulled the gate out of the wagon and hollered "getty up" to the horses and dumped the whole load out on the ground. The folks that had not unloaded yet followed suit. Next week the price of tomatoes went up to $0.08 a pound, where the price should have been in the first place.

Don't underestimate the power of "collective bargaining" and I don't mean unions either.

 

[Nesikep]

it DOES work, French farmers are good at it, and they stick together to make their voices heard, and in some cases felt and smelt too... I think the average farmer/rancher on this side of the ocean is too far in debt to be able to afford to not sell at a given time, and thus there will never be much togetherness around here. Oh me of little faith!

 

[Commercialfarmer]

You forget that about 1/2 are okay with big brother in their underwear drawer- so they wouldn't participate and laugh at the better market. Too many producers sell based on timing of the cattle and forage, not the market. If they could hold them longer, you wouldn't see the seasonality of trading.

Second, beef is not oil. Beef is one of many protein options- gets expensive, people just switch. It is really easy and done all the time. Those that run big brother already want you gone (if you don't know the origin of the food pyramid, it was created to limit animal protein intake by a vegan surgeon general, and the science that animal fat was healthier for you was burried for over 50 years), so if you hold out and hurt yourself, even better. There is also the option of increased import. Again, Beef is not oil of the 70's. Oil is the cheapest energy source by far. You can increase cost quite a bit and it is still the most popular and cheapest energy.

It isn't bright to think that this will be handled with an attempted interruption of beef supply. The revolution wasn't won by refusing tea entry. It took guts to stand up to tyrany. If you don't have em' why make fun of those that are doing your dirty work?

By the way, did you also enjoy the little marked off free speech zone? What are we going to do, show them what we're made of by not talking and count that as a win for freedom?