Strong Yearling Market

[tex452]

Actually, do have a herd and goals. Just trying to be smart about the money to be made, as other experienced members have admonished new members to do. The most experienced guys from NRCS seem to think it's a big newbie mistake to buy replacements at these prices unless you have to.

Summer in central Texas saw few replacements available, but they were cheaper. Pretty high now after the rains. Gonna stick with a lower stocking rate and hopefully end up with the option of leasing some grass out or retaining my calves to be yearlings if I don't like the market next summer/fall. Gives more flexibility than just rolling the dice and hoping for the best with our current weather situation down here.

We picked up some nice young cows at a good price when the drought was getting severe, luckily I had grass to put them on, now I have lots of grass.
With all the cows their killing for hb along with the drought you would think there will be a shortage next year?
The cattle business is something you have to enjoy doing, there's no guarantees.

 

[dvcochran]

Pots of 8 and 9 weight heifers off grass were U$S 187 this week. These feeders were about $150 as 7 wts. this spring.

Light test this week for 5 and 6 wt. heifers were about the same $/lb as 8 wts. this week, and 5 wt steers were $2.

Sounds great. I haven't seen $2 in a long time.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Summer in central Texas saw few replacements available, but they were cheaper. Pretty high now after the rains.

What were running age replacement prices before and after the big rain?

 

[kenny thomas]

Sounds great. I haven't seen $2 in a long time.

Seen a few $2 4wts today. Unweaned steers but good ones.

 

[rocfarm]

What were running age replacement prices before and after the big rain?

Before the rainprices for choice cow/calf pairs were around 1000. Also, some auctions even said in their market reports 'no demand for replacements right now' which seemed a good indicator to me that you'd get a good deal if you could find them.

These past few weeks have seeen them go up to 1200 to 1400 or so. But replacement heifers are expensive right now, from what I can tell. Seems you pay the similar price per pound for a 700# heifer as a 450# heifer, which even members on this forum say is not 'normal' in most years. However, I must confess I haven't been to the auction lately, only looked at their market reports.

But even up north, if you watch the YouTube videos of the soybean farmers, corn farmers, and farmer/feeders, there are soybean farmers that only made 2 bushel per acre and gave up harvesting, corn farmers just chopping for silage the crops they'd normally want to harvest for grain, and farmer/feeders weaning early because they are out of grass. Other guys who've preached that winter stockpile is the way to go are stocking up on hay because they don't have as much stockpile. Other guys saying that this year they never got a third cutting of their alfalfa and can't remember that happening.

And even with the rain, my place has only received about 12.5 inches of rainfall total this year. Normal rainfall is around 32 inches. Long term forecast is that there's a 50/50 chance La Niña will persist next year.

So it seems to me that 1) Cattle prices could drop in the short term because it's more economically efficient to send them to slaughter. 2) Our recent rain in Texas could be all we get for a while, and it's probably smarter to let grass in Texas recover a bit from the tough year this fall rather than trying to immediately restock and stressing already drought-stressed forage (maybe if you have irrigated fields this is not an issue) and 3) keeping stocking rate low relative to historical carrying capacity will give me
options next spring and fall whether the rains come or not.

But I think all can agree that, when the current drought ends, he who has stock will probably receive high prices for his stock.

 

[gcreekrch]

A friend of mine in Alberta sold several loads of 9 weight steers last week for $2.45. Not sure how that exchanges but am hearing of contracts for early new year of over $3.50 on the rail.