Still lower Corn prices ahead to benefit cattle producers

[ManyHorses]

Farmers have so far been reluctant to sell their crop in '04 tax year... Tax considerations in addition to a huge record crop have storage facilities busting with inventory - this costs money to keep every month.

While they may not want to, farmers have to generate cash sales to meet personal and farm expenses. Huge carryover stocks and a weak demand should combine to allow cash prices to drift further down in favor of cattle producers.

Cattle producers should look to 'scoop up' lower Corn prices after the first of '05. Take your time bargaining with the farmers and elevator operators 'cause there's lots of Corn coming down the pipeline, and lots of time.

I don't want to set off another WWIII by posting another trade but March Corn closed at 204-6' just for the record.

Hope this helps somebody... Richard

 

[ollie]

Your theory is wrong of course if the Canadian border is open I would expect corn to go up according to the amount of pen space available in the US.

 

[Bez]

Well, I don't usually enter into "prices down the road" but there was a bumper crop of corn in my part of Canada - prices are as low as they have been in some time - as low as 85 - 95 bucks Canadian per ton - use about a 20% discount to get U.S. of A. bucks. About $75 - 78 U.S. a ton right around the corner here. Pick it up at the gate and you may get it for less.

So there is a possibility - IF cattle come south - that prices will remain low or lower. Time will tell, but that's my take.

One thing you folks in south have to think on - If the border does open, the rush you might think is going to happen - just might not happen. Remember that the dollar difference is very different from 18 months ago. Once transport, customs and brokerage and such is factored in the animal might not be so attractive as some think.

Bez