Statistical Probability (of anything)

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Anonymous

For ya'll out there into statistics (a long 4-letter word, I know):

Given a statistically valid sample (usually not less than N = 120), collected at random for a given breed, trait, or whatever, according to the probability curve:

About 67% of individuals will fall within +/- 1 standard deviation of the mean for any sampled item. Two standard deviations will include about 95% of the sampled population; and 3 standard deviations will include about 98% of the population.

So, for a hypothetical pure sample of anything, if the Mean (average) of something is 100, then +/- one standard deviation approximately 67% of the "anything" would fall between a value of 85 and 115. Again, the assumption is (on a pure sample) that a standard deviation is about 1/6 of the range...in a theoretical perfect distribution of cases, scores, items, measurements, or whatever.



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A

Anonymous

Well...didn't mean to rattle any cages. :) Every message or comment doesn't have to have a real point perhaps... just some information for anyone that is interested. Some things are just for fun, I guess.

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Anonymous

Ok...guess I brought up an item that some are not in to. Anyhoo...the POINT was (that I didn't make clear in my post)...that without data, "statistical" records (charts, graphs, spreadsheets, etc.) ANY type of business will have difficulty in tracking AND PREDICTING where they and their stock are heading.

There's a saying in business: "If you don't know where you've been, how in heck can you predict where you are going?" And, if you don't know where you are going...that's exactly where you'll end up!

Yes, there are "good" and "bad" statistics...some are very adept at manipulating data to serve their own advantage...from individuals to government entities. Yes, some people use statistics and data to "lie", while others use these tools to efficiently manage and tract their business operation. Not all people "fly by the seat of their pants" or "shoot from the hip".

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Anonymous

Well, the original post was sort of "off the wall." Or at least I didn't understand what you were talking about. But I agree with this post. We raise Angus and contribute to the Angus Herd Improvement Record (AHIR) program. We weigh calves at birth, 205 days and 365 days, report those figures to the Association and they go into the big database that produces Angus EPDs. Most breeds of cattle have some program like AHIR now. Do Longhorns have EPDs?
 
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Anonymous

Thanks Frankie!

The two primary breed associations for Texas Longhorns are ITLA and TLBAA. To the best of my knowledge (based on registration certificate information), only the ITLA has a section on the certificates for weights at birth, 205, and 365 days. Breeders I have talked to or corresponded with don't seem to bother with taking these weights to put on certificate. Similarly, there is no provision on the TLBAA registration application for reporting weights.

The TLBAA has an active registry program accessed via "Longhorn Max" software where you can register and transfer information over the Web site. The companion software (for other breeds) is "Cattle Max". You can view these programs at <A HREF="http://www.cattlemax.com" TARGET="_blank">www.cattlemax.com</A> or <A HREF="http://www.longhornmax.com" TARGET="_blank">www.longhornmax.com</A>

On the other hand, at Running Arrow Farm, we weigh all new calves at birth (or as soon as we can safely handle the calf--depends on its mother) and track 205 and 365 day weights. Also, we try to measure horn everytime we work the cattle--some monthly, others definitely at worming injections, etc.

By monitoring horn and weight data, we can "predict" (with help of some charts) a ballpark estimate of potential horn growth. And, can determine if we will retain a calf in our herd based on horn potential.

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