Dave is right. NCBA is as full of sheet as a Christmas turkey.. Not that I think they are perfect either, but R-Calf is about the only "bigger" organization that is on the side of the "little guy". There are a few groups trying to get going out in Kansas and areas out there to be more on the independent side. Co-op type groups. Maybe it will help. I don't hold much faith in Sonny Perdue either.
A couple of news sources are now saying that the swine flu has definitely been found in Korea.... it is going to continue spreading. It will eventually hit here in the US and the thing that scares me about it is if it gets into the feral hog population.
Not because I don't think it would be good to thin that bunch out alot, but because it will spread and infect "far and wide"...
Our hog industry is like the poultry industry....captive.....controlled.... and as susceptible as anything to infection and total destruction. But the only possible upside for a bit would be as Corbitt Wall says. China and other country's are going to have to get protein from other sources, and cattle will be one. Doing a little checking on what he said out of curiosity; there is no way, if we totally manage to keep this swine flu out, that we can begin to supply the pork usage of China. I had no idea that they produced as much as they do, or that they used all they produced. So our beef, as a protein source, may not feel this downturn too terribly long.
And this may also make the packers have to compete with outside forces for the cattle.
I don't know how many paid attention, but back in the 80's there was an "outbreak of an avian flu strain" here in Va and maybe surrounding states. It was thought at the time that it was "contrived" because all of a sudden there were "sick flocks" and it just happened to coincide with some country that banned our poultry (maybe Russia?) and the over abundance of frozen on hand. I am pretty sure it was turkeys. Farmers took it on the chin, houses were depopulated although it was stated that humans could not "catch it" or get sick from eating birds; houses sat empty and then they started putting out birds and the prices of turkey was up because there wasn't alot around for awhile.
I don't think this swine flu is contrived, and there is alot of poultry around for protein also. However, there is not near enough to make more of a dent in the usage over there and beef will be able to fill the bill better than more chicken.
If this is the case, the independent producer will be able to see some PROFIT, because all the ones that are already dedicated to feedlots will not be in the equation. Plus, the packers are still buying on the "open cash market" so there will be competition for the cattle that are out there. I had said that I thought that we would see prices weak and stagnant this fall, and then I thought maybe they would improve some in the spring. Maybe there will be more improvement than I thought.
We had already talked about holding as many of ours through the first of the year, that we can, and only sell what we have to to make what payments that are essential this fall and cannot be deferred. I think now that might be an even better reason to try to hold for a bit. We have some corn silage, and there is a fair amount of hay. Add a little concentrate to balance out the feed and get some gain and I hope it will be a smart move. We will be watching the markets closely. We are maybe a little better off than some, that we don't have to sell due to no grass or anything right now even though it has gotten VERY DRY for this area.
It will be an interesting next few weeks.
