jerry and i are on the same page.
I have some that look 'big as a house' all the time. One calved out just a week or so ago - nice, big calf - I can't tell that she's any smaller than before. Most folks would still think she was heavy with calf.
Vividly remember going to see a fat mare that some clients had bought 'in foal'. "Look - you can see the foal moving in her belly!" But, when I palpated her, there was...nobody home...
Abdominal contractions do not a baby make.