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Dave said:
We always figured the 2nd or 3rd week in June was the peak. Just in time for the 4th of July.
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My cows should be 6 months bred by June. Not sure how I should proceed. Even thought about aborting the young ones and putting in beef program. Definitely don't want 65 or more to take through winter again.

I'd rather have animals than worthless money. But would rather have money than animals if the dollar will hold together.
 
I am feeling that this will crash because of the banking situation getting more unstable... and the mess with Russia looking more volatile... I am talking our country going into a more serious recession....
I want to get these calves sold while the money is there... we are not going to sell out... have all the spring calving cows dropping babies now... I just want all the weaned ones gone that he keeps waffling about when to sell... Have over 50 cows with fall calves... late fall like Nov. calves... that will get weaned and held this fall coming... I just want these high valued young ones gone now while the getting is good.
The low cow numbers are saying that the feeder market will stay decent... people eat even when in a recession.... even more so they eat at home so buy more groceries... and if they are not working or not as much, they will have to stay home and cook some....
Cull cows can jump around week to week.... with the uneasy markets... but hamburger will always have a sale....

I posted it in another thread but we sold 561 lb weaned/vac steers on March 10th for 2.54... that is pretty darn good for here because of the costs to transport them out of the area... Most were in the 1.90 to 2.40 range.... Heifers were about 1.65-1.90 for the same size....
Some 4 wt steers were right at 2.30-2.80....
That is why I want ours gone. Those 561 lb steers brought 1425 each.....
 
farmerjan said:
I am feeling that this will crash because of the banking situation getting more unstable... and the mess with Russia looking more volatile... I am talking our country going into a more serious recession....
I want to get these calves sold while the money is there... we are not going to sell out... have all the spring calving cows dropping babies now... I just want all the weaned ones gone that he keeps waffling about when to sell... Have over 50 cows with fall calves... late fall like Nov. calves... that will get weaned and held this fall coming... I just want these high valued young ones gone now while the getting is good.
The low cow numbers are saying that the feeder market will stay decent... people eat even when in a recession.... even more so they eat at home so buy more groceries... and if they are not working or not as much, they will have to stay home and cook some....
Cull cows can jump around week to week.... with the uneasy markets... but hamburger will always have a sale....

I posted it in another thread but we sold 561 lb weaned/vac steers on March 10th for 2.54... that is pretty darn good for here because of the costs to transport them out of the area... Most were in the 1.90 to 2.40 range.... Heifers were about 1.65-1.90 for the same size....
Some 4 wt steers were right at 2.30-2.80....
That is why I want ours gone. Those 561 lb steers brought 1425 each.....
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"
people eat even when in a recession.... even more so they eat at home so buy more groceries"
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Plus, recipients of SNAP seem to eat better than the average lower income working families, so maybe the demand will increase with more layoffs! let the arrows fly.
 
Your calves on spring grass will gain around 1 1/2 lbs per day. No feed needed. Why the rush to sell? On my place(s) there are 60 calves going. About half weaned, half still on mom.
60 x 1.5 lbs x $1.75 =$ 157.50 per day. Almost a grand per week. I think the risk to let them go until the grass plays out is a decent bet.
 
Was helping a couple of young friends back in 2013. New to the business. Had a going operation. Had bred up a bunch of cull cows to create replacement heifers that would be the nucleus of a really nice set of cows. I was out of town for two weeks and got back and asked where the replacement heifers were. An order buyer next door had offered them a big price and they let them go. Few months later, they paid $2300/hd for some bred heifers that will never pay out. They were young, and in the "never be another bad day" mode. Took the money from the $2-3 calves and spent it. Been struggling to survive ever since. This spring, they expect to pay off their entire cow herd, 50% larger than in 2014. Trying to keep them focused. You guys do the same!
 
Farmerjan, I tried to get them to sell coming off weaning/preconditioning. They would have brought what last year's yearlings brought, after winter grazing. Use the winter grazing for cows, because they had increased the herd by 50%. They were afraid to leave money on the table. Now, even if they hit a lick in May with the stockers, they risk a reduced breed up for next year by diverting quality forage from post calving cows to stockers. With the uncertainty in the economy, "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!"
 
bird dog said:
Your calves on spring grass will gain around 1 1/2 lbs per day. No feed needed. Why the rush to sell?
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Easy money experiments are over. Washington is still incompetent. We are heading for a hard recession.

But corn will come down in price, so I think calf prices are safer than many other commodities.

Staying current is good advice. LRP may be best.
 
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bird dog said:
Your calves on spring grass will gain around 1 1/2 lbs per day. No feed needed. Why the rush to sell? On my place(s) there are 60 calves going. About half weaned, half still on mom.
60 x 1.5 lbs x $1.75 =$ 157.50 per day. Almost a grand per week. I think the risk to let them go until the grass plays out is a decent bet.
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Sell when everybody wants them…buy when nobody wants them….like when everybody's grass plays out…

Just a thought.
 
1982vett said:
Sell when everybody wants them…buy when nobody wants them….like when everybody's grass plays out…

Just a thought.
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I have actually seen pairs sell for less mid summer with a bigger calf than in the spring when grass is starting. Green grass fever drives the price higher.
 
kenny thomas said:
I have actually seen pairs sell for less mid summer with a bigger calf than in the spring when grass is starting. Green grass fever drives the price higher.
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Won't be long yet. Getting good and green here. 20 degrees last night though. Think I picked up a good size pasture yesterday. May not sell anything. Lol. May sell everything and rebuild w lower valued. Not sure what to think. I don't see the dollar dying just yet.
 
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I noticed that Kenny Thomas noted the high weigh cow prices at Richmond, Ky. last Friday. It seems they tend to sell higher there than at the other markets in the region.
They wait to the end of the sale to sell weigh cows and many are a little gaunt after standing around the yards all day. Other markets sell them as they come in, scattered through the day. All weigh them in the ring as they are sold. I remember when they were weighed as you unloaded and it might be many hours before they sold.
Any ideas on what is best for the seller? Or does it come out in the wash as buyers discount the heavy and full cows?
 
Logan52 said:
I noticed that Kenny Thomas noted the high weigh cow prices at Richmond, Ky. last Friday. It seems they tend to sell higher there than at the other markets in the region.
They wait to the end of the sale to sell weigh cows and many are a little gaunt after standing around the yards all day. Other markets sell them as they come in, scattered through the day. All weigh them in the ring as they are sold. I remember when they were weighed as you unloaded and it might be many hours before they sold.
Any ideas on what is best for the seller? Or does it come out in the wash as buyers discount the heavy and full cows?
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The weight loss is hard for the seller to overcome. Years ago I had a friend that bought cows for a company in NC. He would call me and tell me approximately what time to get there. Weighed as they sold but most times they would sell within minutes of me getting there. A $10 tip to the guy that was doing the unloading and tagging sure helped too.
 
bird dog said:
Your calves on spring grass will gain around 1 1/2 lbs per day. No feed needed. Why the rush to sell? On my place(s) there are 60 calves going. About half weaned, half still on mom.
60 x 1.5 lbs x $1.75 =$ 157.50 per day. Almost a grand per week. I think the risk to let them go until the grass plays out is a decent bet.
Click to expand...
The only difference is that once they hit a certain weight, they are not gaining $1.75 worth of lbs, they are gaining 1.40 worth of lbs.... You have to sit and decide where the "equal return" is... For us here, anything over 600 lbs is going to drop off in price per lb and puts more demand on the grass/soil. We can run a few more cows, sell a few more calves, and then actually make the grass last longer to feed those cows because once they are not lactating, they are demanding less out of the pasture they are on and are actually gaining weight themselves so are in better condition to calve and produce milk for the next calf.
Years ago I did a chart on lbs of calf compared to price received... cannot find it but I am going to do another... did it on graph paper that showed where you were getting back the same money for xx wt calf at yy price .... maybe someone with more computer expertise could replicate something like that... It was to show a neighbor that he was maybe getting more per calf in xx dollars, but he had less # of head to sell since they required more land/grass to get to that point and his check was nearly identical to ours total.....
The guy we used to help and who passed away, used to wean his calves off his cows and then pour the feed to them for 60-90 days, then sell them... He always topped the sale and was the kind that liked the bragging rights. My son did some comparisons and after you took out just the feed costs, not counting the time and effort to feed them, that we were getting nearly the same for our calves in GROSS returns without all the inputs and leaving them on the cows up to selling. Because the feed was high and ours were still on grass and their momma's. Now we do pull/wean because we are also buying calves to make up bigger and uniform groups... but the silage is still cheaper even with the grain topdress..... than he was feeding just the grain... if we weren't buying cattle to put together groups of stocker calves, working cheaper bull calves into steers etc.... it would b e questionable if it is worth the cost plus the time to do so.
 
farmerjan said:
The only difference is that once they hit a certain weight, they are not gaining $1.75 worth of lbs, they are gaining 1.40 worth of lbs.... You have to sit and decide where the "equal return" is... For us here, anything over 600 lbs is going to drop off in price per lb and puts more demand on the grass/soil. We can run a few more cows, sell a few more calves, and then actually make the grass last longer to feed those cows because once they are not lactating, they are demanding less out of the pasture they are on and are actually gaining weight themselves so are in better condition to calve and produce milk for the next calf.
Years ago I did a chart on lbs of calf compared to price received... cannot find it but I am going to do another... did it on graph paper that showed where you were getting back the same money for xx wt calf at yy price .... maybe someone with more computer expertise could replicate something like that... It was to show a neighbor that he was maybe getting more per calf in xx dollars, but he had less # of head to sell since they required more land/grass to get to that point and his check was nearly identical to ours total.....
The guy we used to help and who passed away, used to wean his calves off his cows and then pour the feed to them for 60-90 days, then sell them... He always topped the sale and was the kind that liked the bragging rights. My son did some comparisons and after you took out just the feed costs, not counting the time and effort to feed them, that we were getting nearly the same for our calves in GROSS returns without all the inputs and leaving them on the cows up to selling. Because the feed was high and ours were still on grass and their momma's. Now we do pull/wean because we are also buying calves to make up bigger and uniform groups... but the silage is still cheaper even with the grain topdress..... than he was feeding just the grain... if we weren't buying cattle to put together groups of stocker calves, working cheaper bull calves into steers etc.... it would be questionable if it is worth the cost plus the time to do so.
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Excellent points! In the West those that run yearlings have found that selling late July or early August cattle gain more weight per day than waiting to sell in Sept. The cattle gain basically nothing after mid-August. Our grass has dried up and doesn't have the nutrients in it to make weight gain. Yearlings do excellent from June to August tho. The early grass in the West really packs a punch. Maybe it would be different on irrigated pasture, but on dryland range conditions selling early works out best.
 

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