Sale or hold ‘em?

[fnfarms1]

My calves have been weaned 45+days. I know prices have dropped in last few weeks. My plan has been to sell around thanksgiving-first part of December. The wife and I were discussing holding them until Jan-Feb. a lot of ppl anticipate the market going up really good after first of the year. Feeding cost is a factor as well. Herd is 50/50 heifers/steers 70% black. Be about 25hd after I keep 8 butcher steers and couple heifers. Thoughts? What are you all hearing?

Rain is going to be a big driver. Little rain supposed to be first of next week but it's to little to late I think. Ponds are pretty dry. Around NE Ok and local, our crops didn't make although I hear Nebraskas getting record crops. Not sure of western wheat grazing because I think their nearly as dry. Calves are currently 4-5weights.

 

[Travlr]

My calves have been weaned 45+days. I know prices have dropped in last few weeks. My plan has been to sell around thanksgiving-first part of December. The wife and I were discussing holding them until Jan-Feb. a lot of ppl anticipate the market going up really good after first of the year. Feeding cost is a factor as well. Herd is 50/50 heifers/steers 70% black. Be about 25hd after I keep 8 butcher steers and couple heifers. Thoughts? What are you all hearing?

Rain is going to be a big driver. Little rain supposed to be first of next week but it's to little to late I think. Ponds are pretty dry. Around NE Ok and local, our crops didn't make although I hear Nebraskas getting record crops. Not sure of western wheat grazing because I think their nearly as dry. Calves are currently 4-5weights.

Pics?

Just out of curiosity, when were they born (how old?).

My own personal opinion is that with all the short rain, hay, rising prices for feed, etc., interest rates going up, this may not be the best year to hold calves.

 

[TCRanch]

Yesterday's market in southeast KS, not far from you and we're also in a severe drought. Don't count on rain anytime soon, as the forecast changes daily. Hay and cubes have gone way up, water is a precious commodity. Personally, I'd sell now instead of waiting for prices that may or may not go up and your resources are depleted. All that aside, would be a good idea to talk to your CPA. Do you need the income on this year's taxes or 2023? Or can you sell them in '22 and have them hold the check until '23.

 

[Lee VanRoss]

My calves have been weaned 45+days. I know prices have dropped in last few weeks. My plan has been to sell around thanksgiving-first part of December. The wife and I were discussing holding them until Jan-Feb. a lot of ppl anticipate the market going up really good after first of the year. Feeding cost is a factor as well. Herd is 50/50 heifers/steers 70% black. Be about 25hd after I keep 8 butcher steers and couple heifers. Thoughts? What are you all hearing?

Rain is going to be a big driver. Little rain supposed to be first of next week but it's to little to late I think. Ponds are pretty dry. Around NE Ok and local, our crops didn't make although I hear Nebraskas getting record crops. Not sure of western wheat grazing because I think their nearly as dry. Calves are currently 4-5weights.

I think I would check my source about Nebraska getting record crops. November markets , like weather can be variable.

 

[KAstocker]

If it does rain, this market is supposedly going up.

I would hold them for the fun of it. There is surely a better chance of the market going back up than further down. By the market report that TC posted, I would sell the steers and keep the heifers.

 

[fnfarms1]

Yesterday's market in southeast KS, not far from you and we're also in a severe drought. Don't count on rain anytime soon, as the forecast changes daily. Hay and cubes have gone way up, water is a precious commodity. Personally, I'd sell now instead of waiting for prices that may or may not go up and your resources are depleted. All that aside, would be a good idea to talk to your CPA. Do you need the income on this year's taxes or 2023? Or can you sell them in '22 and have them hold the check until '23.
View attachment 22236

That's pretty good pricing compared to what I've been seeing locally. I still plan to hold to first of Dec.
the tax issue is one hold up for me, I don't like to chance selling 2 calf crops in same calendar year and screwing myself on taxes down the road. I've known guys that have and it ate up their profits in taxes. So if the reward is worth it, I might do it anyway.

 

[fnfarms1]

Pics?

Just out of curiosity, when were they born (how old?).

My own personal opinion is that with all the short rain, hay, rising prices for feed, etc., interest rates going up, this may not be the best year to hold calves.

 

[Travlr]

How old?

Some side shots would make it easier to evaluate the animals.

 

[mncowboy]

HUB CITY LIVESTOCK

Aberdeen SD last week.

Steers from 479 for $2.28 - 608 for $2.00
Heifers 498 $197, 540 $1.98

I'd hold them, I think we're on the up swing from already good prices.

 

[Aero]

Central NC - Anybody selling at these prices is losing money- especially heifers.

 

[fnfarms1]

HUB CITY LIVESTOCK

Aberdeen SD last week.

Steers from 479 for $2.28 - 608 for $2.00
Heifers 498 $197, 540 $1.98

I'd hold them, I think we're on the up swing from already good prices.

If I could get $2 I'd sell em now, but SD little far for me to sell at. I will probably just see how I feel about it in 30days

How old?

Some side shots would make it easier to evaluate the animals.

6-8mths

 

[Travlr]

If I could get $2 I'd sell em now, but SD little far for me to sell at. I will probably just see how I feel about it in 30days

6-8mths

6-8 months... so an average of 7? That's when most people wean. Why are yours already weaned 45 days? Weaned at an average of 5 1/2 months?

 

[fnfarms1]

6-8 months... so an average of 7? That's when most people wean. Why are yours already weaned 45 days? Weaned at an average of 5 1/2 months?

Because we are in severe drought. Feeding hay since mid Aug, some ppl feeding since July. I weaned early to try to help cows maintain and not let my calves go to crap. Hoped it would help stretch my hay supply as well, maybe not if I'm feeding both still.

 

[b.duke]

October 19th, 2022
Heifers:
3-400 @ 160 - 1.82
4-500 @ 158 - 178
5-600 @ 138 - 154
5-600 WEANED @ 148 - 167
6-700 @ 132 - 151
6-700 WEANED @145 -163
7-800 @ 140 - 154
8-900 @ 135 - 148

Steers:
3-400 @ 180 -217.50
4-500 @ 170 - 205
5-600 @ 150 - 175
5-600 WEANED @ 170 - 199
6-700 @ 145 - 165
6-700 WEANED @ 165 - 185.50
7-800 @ 162 - 180.50
8-900 @ 140 - 163​

 

[cowgirl8]

We sold steers over a month ago and held on to top heifers. Its been a great weaning season. Usually, they'd be standing in belly deep mud by now. Been great weaning weather other than its been a little dusty. We have enough hay to keep heifers and if the weather turns around, people will be wanting breeding age heifers or bred heifers. Thats what we're betting on. I know in 2014, people were paying up to 3500 for a bred heifer..

 

[libertygarden]

I don't understand this market. The big sell off was in July and August, yet prices are crappier now, at least here in NE TX. Like someone else mentioned, sell the steers keep the heifers, if you have the hay. I'm not sure what benefit rain would do this late in the year, aside form filling up the tanks. Most grass has already been frosted or is about to. No more hay for the rest of the year.

Attached is the marker report for last Wednesday, Paris, TX barn sale.

 

[ClinchValley86]

I'm holding everything. Fully expect high high high prices next year.

Keep hearing we've been killing more females than males for a while now.

Packers are short on cattle. I say make em sweat for a while.

Find some cheap feed, if it'd possible. Been seeing distillers syrup and liquid all over marketplace. That stuff any count?

 

[fnfarms1]

Had stockyards rep I know come look. He offered 1.90/strs, 1.60/hfrs, 2%shrink. Told him I needed 2.00/strs, 1.75/hfrs.

 

[midTN_Brangusman]

Had stockyards rep I know come look. He offered 1.90/strs, 1.60/hfrs, 2%shrink. Told him I needed 2.00/strs, 1.75/hfrs

30 cents back on heifers seems pretty extreme to me. We normally sell heifers 10 to 15 back of the steers.

 

[KAstocker]

Those prices he offered would have been fine before last week. If you do the math, you can actually receive less per pound selling off the farm than what you would at the sale barn and come out ahead. You will save shrink, commission, and freight.