Rolling the weather dice

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Lazy M

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I'm debating whether or not to cut hay this Friday (30A). Looks like we're getting rain on Thurs, and then the long term forecast has us with a 30-40% chance on Sun/Mon. If I can get it cut on Fri and tedder it on Saturday, I think that I could get it baled on Sun..
My questions: how do you treat the weather forecasts and hay? Do you only pay attention to short term or do long term forecasts play into your decisions? How big a chance of rain is too big (ie: 30, 40, 50% etc). Do you have a source that you prefer (local news, farmers almanac, etc)?
 
I'm using the weather on MSN and it's wrong 50% of the time or it changes dramatically overnight.
 
Yeah, my poor wife has had to deal with many ugly rants from me whenever we go to bed with a 10% chance of rain and wake up with an 80% and i've got hay ready to bale
 
I look at the long range and short range them cross my fingers and take a shot in the dark (much like the weather guessers I think) and deal with whatever happens.
 
Dealing with the same thing trying to make dry hay but don't want to complain about the moisture as we've all had it to the other extreme. I cut some last Mon. overcast Tues. & Wed. Decided to roll it Wed. p.m. It was was plenty green. Started raining Thurs. and have had 5" since.
Two good days and then storms for Thurs again. I may cut some more Fri. and try to roll by Sun. I go with wunderground.com for my forecasts.

fitz
 
dun":2dw28u24 said:
I look at the long range and short range them cross my fingers and take a shot in the dark (much like the weather guessers I think) and deal with whatever happens.

I do the same and look at alot of different weather predictions and try to calculate risks.
 
the guy that runs the local hardware store says if its been rainy then you'll probably get rain at 30%, but if its been dry it won't hardly rain at 30%. then again you can't get it up till you get it down.
If you need it to rain just cut some hay down.
 
Stocker Steve":x1ssrf67 said:
We expect rain, and thus believe in baleage. Issue with rain is it a tenth or an inch?

Tube wrap or single bale?
 
I saw a lot of hay being cut last week with a forecast little chance of rain for 10 days....Some of it got wet Sunday morning....Some of it didn't.
 
Banjo":275ro6z9 said:
the guy that runs the local hardware store says if its been rainy then you'll probably get rain at 30%, but if its been dry it won't hardly rain at 30%. then again you can't get it up till you get it down.
If you need it to rain just cut some hay down.

Lazy M":275ro6z9 said:
Yeah, my poor wife has had to deal with many ugly rants from me whenever we go to bed with a 10% chance of rain and wake up with an 80% and i've got hay ready to bale

I gotta ask.
Just what the heck does all that mean?
80% of the day is going to be wet for everyone in that area?
80% of the viewing/listening audience is going to see rain?
Which 80%
80% of the listeners will have rain 100% of the day or only 80% of the day?
What about the other 20% of the listeners/viewers? No rain chance at all or do they only get a 20% chance for 80% of the day?
Can you get all 80% 1 minute after midnight and the other 23 hrs and 59 minutes no chance at all?
I'm confused...
 
Around here (Maine) before conditioners many of the old farmers would never cut hay before July 4th. June since I can remember has always been a wet month with few exceptions.

My rule of thumbs are, if you want it to rain just drop some hay, on weather forecasts; anything past the tomorrow is just a guess and tomorrow ain't a sure thing. If your in a wet pattern and the hay needs cutting don't get your underwear in a knot, sit back and have a cold one, better days are coming.
 
I watch the forecasts, look at the satellite views, and then make my own "forecast". It's been so dry if it rains on the hay ok. Had hay down Sunday, got 1 in rain, had more down Tuesday, got a little less than 1/10 th, pretty much just washed the dust off the hay. You can't bale it if you don't mow it. Normally anything 30% or less is a go, anything more is a wait. Clear as mud, right. :tiphat:
 
dcarp":1geiriwi said:
I watch the forecasts, look at the satellite views, and then make my own "forecast". It's been so dry if it rains on the hay ok. Had hay down Sunday, got 1 in rain, had more down Tuesday, got a little less than 1/10 th, pretty much just washed the dust off the hay. You can't bale it if you don't mow it. Normally anything 30% or less is a go, anything more is a wait. Clear as mud, right. :tiphat:

Me too.
 

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