Ready for Bounce?

[HerefordSire]

This is a daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Notice the bottom slanted white line where recent prior bottoms provided a bounce. I am looking for a nice bounce here, maybe Monday morning. Before the market closes today, I will give the order to transfer more funds into a (no-load) mutual fund from a money market fund.

 

[Bullbuyer]

Wish I knew more about the ol' stock market. The only one I know much about has sawdust in the ring and an auctioneer!
Good luck on your adventure!

 

[Caustic Burno]

I am buying right now. There are some good opportunities if you have the patience to hold on for a while.

 

[HerefordSire]

bullbuyer...both behave the same way. They will try to take your money like a thief in the middle of the night. Wall Street came up with the "buy and hold" chatter. They want you to buy stock for the long term and not worry about the girations of the market prices. They think we are idiots. A chart many times will show what the insiders are doing before news is released. That is one reason why I like them. They don't lie.

 

[HerefordSire]

CB...there is a good 1,000 points on the table for the taking. I would be cautious beyond that. Just take what they give you even if you have to pay more later, at least you live to play another day.

 

[ROB]

herefordsire - got interested looking over the chart you posted - so i look up one myself. comparing the fall in the DOW since October, 2007 to the present vs. the fall in 1929. hopefully, history won't fully repeat itself. the percent loss we've seen in the last 18 months (about 48%) was very comparable to the percent loss suffered in about 4 months of 1929 - where the DOW fell from 381.17 to 198.69 (about 48%). looking at the DOW average chart during the great depression - if history does infact repeat itself - we've got a heck of a ride left to go.

ROB

 

[HerefordSire]

herefordsire - got interested looking over the chart you posted - so i look up one myself. comparing the fall in the DOW since October, 2007 to the present vs. the fall in 1929. hopefully, history won't fully repeat itself. the percent loss we've seen in the last 18 months (about 48%) was very comparable to the percent loss suffered in about 4 months of 1929 - where the DOW fell from 381.17 to 198.69 (about 48%). looking at the DOW average chart during the great depression - if history does infact repeat itself - we've got a heck of a ride left to go.

ROB

ROB...I am showing 14,100 and some change as being the high. Half of that is 7,050 so I know the drop has been over 50%. Prices usually reverse course at a Fibonacci number. It blew right through 50% so know I am looking for a 62.318% reversal (around 5,300 after a couple bouncing peaks in the interim...it doesn't have to be right...just be aware of it). What I found out through research is that the same patterns show up over and over and over on different time frames. It is as if they reflect the sum of human conciousness (all investor and trader brain wave patterns summed that are buying and selling the vehicle), although it can never be proved.

 

[grannysoo]

It may bounce, but the fat lady is not finished singing yet.......

 

[HerefordSire]

Jobs report came out today. 600,000 plus more people lost their jobs. Unemployment rate is now 8.1%. Market is a leading economic indicator. At the white line above in the graphic shows me a bunch more people will get fired or laid off in the next month and this month.

 

[jedstivers]

I set an account up yestertay to be able to buy and sell, thinking hard about John Deere. Herefordshire what do you think about it?

 

[HerefordSire]

There is an outside chance she could hit $20 per share soon. Closed @ $25.41. I would wait for the $20. It broke strong support in the $28 range. Let's see if she can make it to $20. Other than that, she is a steal at these price levels. Be patient. Great brand name.

 

[jedstivers]

There is an outside chance she could hit $20 per share soon. Closed @ $25.41. I would wait for the $20. It broke strong support in the $28 range. Let's see if she can make it to $20. Other than that, she is a steal at these price levels. Be patient. Great brand name.

Thanks, it will be a few days before my acct. goes trough so we'll see what it does. Also watching Agrium to see if it goes under $30.

 

[1982vett]

There is an outside chance she could hit $20 per share soon. Closed @ $25.41. I would wait for the $20. It broke strong support in the $28 range. Let's see if she can make it to $20. Other than that, she is a steal at these price levels. Be patient. Great brand name.

Thanks, it will be a few days before my acct. goes trough so we'll see what it does. Also watching Agrium to see if it goes under $30.

Keep your head and don't chase 'em. Nothing in the leadership gives reason to economic recovery anytime soon. Many stocks do pay dividends greater than any CD at the moment, but just as with CD's those rates change, even worse when the principle erodes with them. So DE with a 4.4% dividend @ $25.41 looks pretty good till it goes to $21.68 and you've lost 11.6% even with the 4.4% dividend.

 

[Ryder]

It may bounce, but the fat lady is not finished singing yet.......

I do believe you are right. And it aint over 'till it's over.
I'm not even sure the fat lady is in the parking lot yet.
As I have said before on these boards, when the market does (?) rally, in all probability it will be a sucker rally. A lot of people will think the sell off is over and start buying. Then the market will start the next leg down.
Make no mistake, this is a BEAR market.

Should there be a change in trend from down to up, it will take a long time for the market to signal a valid trend change.

Nobody knows how far down is. This market and these times are very different from what most people alive today have ever seen.
Like somebody said, when you are standing in a hole, quit digging.

 

[Fred]

It may bounce, but the fat lady is not finished singing yet.......

I do believe you are right. And it aint over 'till it's over.
I'm not even sure the fat lady is in the parking lot yet.
As I have said before on these boards, when the market does (?) rally, in all probability it will be a sucker rally. A lot of people will think the sell off is over and start buying. Then the market will start the next leg down.
Make no mistake, this is a BEAR market.

Should there be a change in trend from down to up, it will take a long time for the market to signal a valid trend change.

Nobody knows how far down is. This market and these times are very different from what most people alive today have ever seen.
Like somebody said, when you are standing in a hole, quit digging.

I believe that's some good advice you're giving.

 

[Caustic Burno]

This recession isn't near as bad as the one in the late 70's early 80's yet.
We had double the unemployment rate as well as double digit inflation.
There were mass migrations of famlies to the areas that had promise of a job, Houston grew in leaps and bounds from people up north. The oil boom hadn't went belly up yet.
The big difference is you had a generation that still operated on cash and not plastic, for the last 20 years Americans have been on credit spending spree/ along with the government forcing loans to unqualified borrowers.
We have had a generation of Americans dancing and partying and now it is time to pay the fiddler.

 

[1982vett]

This recession isn't near as bad as the one in the late 70's early 80's yet.
We had double the unemployment rate as well as double digit inflation.
There were mass migrations of famlies to the areas that had promise of a job, Houston grew in leaps and bounds from people up north. The oil boom hadn't went belly up yet.
The big difference is you had a generation that still operated on cash and not plastic, for the last 20 years Americans have been on credit spending spree/ along with the government forcing loans to unqualified borrowers.We have had a generation of Americans dancing and partying and now it is time to pay the fiddler.

Their lies that problem, in the 80's interest rates were in the mid-high teens which spured growth each time they were cut. Homes were just that, not a piggy bank you broke into every 3-4 years to plunder.

 

[jedstivers]

This recession isn't near as bad as the one in the late 70's early 80's yet.
We had double the unemployment rate as well as double digit inflation.
There were mass migrations of famlies to the areas that had promise of a job, Houston grew in leaps and bounds from people up north. The oil boom hadn't went belly up yet.
The big difference is you had a generation that still operated on cash and not plastic, for the last 20 years Americans have been on credit spending spree/ along with the government forcing loans to unqualified borrowers.We have had a generation of Americans dancing and partying and now it is time to pay the fiddler.

Their lies that problem, in the 80's interest rates were in the mid-high teens which spured growth each time they were cut. Homes were just that, not a piggy bank you broke into every 3-4 years to plunder.

And the ones that will pay and get this mess cleaned up are not the ones who caused it in the first place. The people that have been working, saving and not living beyond their means are the ones that will have to pay the tab

 

[grannysoo]

This recession isn't near as bad as the one in the late 70's early 80's yet.

The key word here is "yet".

Give it time. This one's going to get worse....

 

[HerefordSire]

There is an outside chance she could hit $20 per share soon. Closed @ $25.41. I would wait for the $20. It broke strong support in the $28 range. Let's see if she can make it to $20. Other than that, she is a steal at these price levels. Be patient. Great brand name.

Thanks, it will be a few days before my acct. goes trough so we'll see what it does. Also watching Agrium to see if it goes under $30.

You are welcome jedstivers. Between the two companies you mentioned, Agrium (AGU) appears to be a better value right now in my view. Although there is no dividend to speak of, Agrium shows a trailing 12 month EPS of a whopping $8.31 and with the closing price of $31.43 per share, shows a blistering low PE of 3.78, which is almost unheard of.

This is a weekly chart shown below for AGU where one candle represents one week. Couple of points I would like to make....there is strong price support @ $28.06 representing a long term moving average. See where price hit the top of the yellow bollinger band and reversed two weeks ago @ $41.60 range? That was strong resistance as price could not move above it, yet. Notice the most recent red slanted dotted line moving upward? The price just broke it downward. Normally this is very bearish, but I have seen reversals occur in the short term with great growth companies like this one. Even though, in a cautious manner, I am looking for price to move to hit the bottom yellow bollinger band @ $25.06 after testing the longer term moving average of $28.06. Generally, the closer you can buy to $25.06, consider it a blessing. Regardless, any price between $25.06 and the 28.06, are very good buys. Maybe you can buy it on the way up from $25.06 if you ever get the opportunity to.