Ranching & Farming of the Future

[Onthebit]

Man is no different than any other species. As long as he is comfortable and relatively unstressed he will breed to utilize his available food supply. In 10,000 B.C. when we were all hunter gatherers, the global human population was an estimated 4 million people. Around this time some long forgotten super genius figured out how to increase the harvest of important grain seeds by planting them in the earth. More geniuses invented how to herd animals, irrigate crops, build fishing boats, make bread, that heat would make soybeans edible, rice cultivation, corn cultivation, plant breeding, milking mammals like cows, sheep, goats, camels, horses, llamas, and water buffaloe, sail boats, harnessing animal power, fish nets, dig wells, vineyards, wine, etc. By Jesus's day the human population had exploded to 170 million. The so-called 'Dark Ages' were actually quite innovative. Horse collars, stirrups, wind mills, steel plow points, crop rotations came from Europe while in Native America plant breeders were developing squashes, potatoes, corn, peppers, tomatoes, and other staple food crops. Population doubled to ~340 million. The globalization of agricultural technology led to another doubling by ~the American Revolution. Then the industrialization of agriculture hastened the population growth. Reapers, steel plows, threshers, improved crop varieties, the development of breeds of livestock, whalers, improved fishing boats, canning, railroads, etc allowed more people to eat enough to live long enough to breed and raise children. Global world population passed 2 billion in ~the 1920s. Tractors, electricity, improved plant breeding, hybrid corn, Holsteins, fish farming, A.I., combines, chemical fertilizers, margarine, vegetable oils, trucking, pesticides, plastics, refrigeration, embryo transfer, genetically modified crops, etc have all helped raise our production and increase the amount of food that gets to the eating public. We reached 4 billion in the 1970s. Now we have 6,658 million people (and climbing). Our job in agriculture is to do what we have done in the past and improve on the crops and livestock under our care and invent better management practices so that we can continue to produce more food with less land.

Sooooo take control of the food and/water supply and control populace? is this not what Nais is about?

 

[SCRUBS620]

Man is no different than any other species. As long as he is comfortable and relatively unstressed he will breed to utilize his available food supply. In 10,000 B.C. when we were all hunter gatherers, the global human population was an estimated 4 million people. Around this time some long forgotten super genius figured out how to increase the harvest of important grain seeds by planting them in the earth. More geniuses invented how to herd animals, irrigate crops, build fishing boats, make bread, that heat would make soybeans edible, rice cultivation, corn cultivation, plant breeding, milking mammals like cows, sheep, goats, camels, horses, llamas, and water buffaloe, sail boats, harnessing animal power, fish nets, dig wells, vineyards, wine, etc. By Jesus's day the human population had exploded to 170 million. The so-called 'Dark Ages' were actually quite innovative. Horse collars, stirrups, wind mills, steel plow points, crop rotations came from Europe while in Native America plant breeders were developing squashes, potatoes, corn, peppers, tomatoes, and other staple food crops. Population doubled to ~340 million. The globalization of agricultural technology led to another doubling by ~the American Revolution. Then the industrialization of agriculture hastened the population growth. Reapers, steel plows, threshers, improved crop varieties, the development of breeds of livestock, whalers, improved fishing boats, canning, railroads, etc allowed more people to eat enough to live long enough to breed and raise children. Global world population passed 2 billion in ~the 1920s. Tractors, electricity, improved plant breeding, hybrid corn, Holsteins, fish farming, A.I., combines, chemical fertilizers, margarine, vegetable oils, trucking, pesticides, plastics, refrigeration, embryo transfer, genetically modified crops, etc have all helped raise our production and increase the amount of food that gets to the eating public. We reached 4 billion in the 1970s. Now we have 6,658 million people (and climbing). Our job in agriculture is to do what we have done in the past and improve on the crops and livestock under our care and invent better management practices so that we can continue to produce more food with less land.

Sooooo take control of the food and/water supply and control populace? is this not what Nais is about?

Not sure what you mean?

 

[Brandonm22]

Sooooo take control of the food and/water supply and control populace? is this not what Nais is about?

Where did I ever advocate THAT???? To the contrary, I understand and accept that MY power is limited. The power of US gov beyond the American boarder is very limited and the power of the UN is almost nil. I don't control what two teens in Lubbock Texas might do tonight. I have even less control over what a man and a woman in Guadalahjara, Bombay, Tikrit, Cairo, or Johannesburgh might do. I understand that and really would not want to be made captain of the global sex police if there were such an animal. We in agriculture do NOT wield that kind of power and understand that if we don't produce more groceries than we do now it will get BAAADD. All we can do is what we have always done and accept that human population WILL increase so we need to figure out how to squeeze more beef from that acre faster and more efficiently. Dittoe with the corn growing guy, the rice growing guy, the chicken guy, the pig guy, the tomatoe guy, the orange guy, etc etc. CAN the earth support 12 billion people???? I honestly don't know; but ultimately it is our job to make it work.......and we might have to produce a 1/4 of the world's fuel needs while we are feeding them all.

 

[Brandonm22]

I am not saying let everyone starve but there is a limit to what this earth can provide. Even if we can get it to the maximum production, the swings between good years and bad at the top would be devastating. Better education and incentives to not have 6 kids would be a good start. People on welfare see kids as an opportunity to get more aid. Welfare will not allow them to work because then they would lose their benefits. More kids in a family in other countries means an extra body to earn money. Also, those in China and India are no longer content to eat meagerly.

We deal with down years like Joseph, son of Jacob, did in Genesis chptr 41: we store the surpluses from the good harvests so that we can eat and make a sweet profit in the down years. Also we have some overproduction built into the system by diverting grains from feeding pets and livestock (though ethanol is cutting into our ability to stockpile).

For 12,000 years the agriculturalist has used his/her mind to think of new ways to increase the maximum production of the moment. If we were still using the seed varieties available to us in 1940 we would be having massive shortages now. 50% of the world's population is 29 and under, 25% are 14 or less. When those kids have kids we need to be getting more corn, rice, oats, wheat, pork, beef, fish, etc than we are getting from the system now or people are going to die and die horribly. I don't know IF we can do that or not. All I am saying is that more is going to be asked from fewer farmers than what is asked now and as the urban population grows we are probably going to have less land to do it with while having less voice politically.

http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbagg
http://bibleresources.bible.com/passage ... ersion1=49

 

[Beef11]

The crowd who says we are about to overpopulate the earth has little comprehension of the massive amount of resources not being used or being used very poorly. How many millions of acres of lawn are in the US alone? How much time, money and labor are spent on these only to have the fruits cast into the landfill? How many millions of unused acres are their in the US? I recently flew over Idaho and saw millions of acres of empty land. If someone wanted to put it into 1/4 acre lots. There are still many places where one can still find the vast expanses. Yes things are changing and quickly the government helping will be the source that causes the big bumps in this ride.

 

[Wewild]

CAN the earth support 12 billion people???? I honestly don't know; but ultimately it is our job to make it work

I don't know if we can. We will out grow our ability to feed the population.

 

[Beef11]

how many acres are currently in crp? We are far from starting to hit capacity.

 

[Wewild]

how many acres are currently in crp? We are far from starting to hit capacity.

I don't know about the crp. I do know the population growth hasn't slowed. I know they ain't making anymore land. i don't know when it will become an issue.

 

[Brandonm22]

how many acres are currently in crp? We are far from starting to hit capacity.

36.8 million. If we put 2/3s of that back into production at a modest 130 bushels of corn per acre I come up with over 3 billion additional bushels EASILY.


We have another 214 million acres of timberland in the south alone. Put a third of that back into crops at 130 bushels of corn per acre and I come up with another 9 billion.

http://www.ppi-ppic.org/ppiweb/usams.ns ... =home+page




http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/newsRelease ... _0276.html

 

[Caustic Burno]

how many acres are currently in crp? We are far from starting to hit capacity.

I don't know about the crp. I do know the population growth hasn't slowed. I know they ain't making anymore land. i don't know when it will become an issue.

Read about the Gobi in China as it is eating China up due to poor farming practices, makes our dust bowl look small.

 

[SCRUBS620]

I am not saying let everyone starve but there is a limit to what this earth can provide. Even if we can get it to the maximum production, the swings between good years and bad at the top would be devastating. Better education and incentives to not have 6 kids would be a good start. People on welfare see kids as an opportunity to get more aid. Welfare will not allow them to work because then they would lose their benefits. More kids in a family in other countries means an extra body to earn money. Also, those in China and India are no longer content to eat meagerly.

We deal with down years like Joseph, son of Jacob, did in Genesis chptr 41: we store the surpluses from the good harvests so that we can eat and make a sweet profit in the down years. Also we have some overproduction built into the system by diverting grains from feeding pets and livestock (though ethanol is cutting into our ability to stockpile).

For 12,000 years the agriculturalist has used his/her mind to think of new ways to increase the maximum production of the moment. If we were still using the seed varieties available to us in 1940 we would be having massive shortages now. 50% of the world's population is 29 and under, 25% are 14 or less. When those kids have kids we need to be getting more corn, rice, oats, wheat, pork, beef, fish, etc than we are getting from the system now or people are going to die and die horribly. I don't know IF we can do that or not. All I am saying is that more is going to be asked from fewer farmers than what is asked now and as the urban population grows we are probably going to have less land to do it with while having less voice politically.

http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbagg
http://bibleresources.bible.com/passage ... ersion1=49

I am sure that the farmers of this world will rise to the occasion for a long time to come. I am just saying that at some point we will hit a maximum. With a exponentially growing population who knows how far off that will be. Things are going to get worse before they get better if the rate of growth does not change. Hopefully our local governments will realize that the best use of land is not 5 acres of yard that someone mows 3 times per week. Hopefully these families will become a little more self sufficient; plant a garden to feed themselves. It is just scary to think about what our kids will face. The human race is thifty and will survive but the Bible also tells of famines and cataclismic disasters also. As massive as it is the earth can be very fragile. Land lost to dessertification cant be reclaimed. I just dont want to see the day when we need to bank on maximum output. Most cars today will have a maximum speed of 100+ mph. Tell me what is the difference between a crash at 40 mph versus 100+ mph?

 

[Brandonm22]

I am sure that the farmers of this world will rise to the occasion for a long time to come. I am just saying that at some point we will hit a maximum. With a exponentially growing population who knows how far off that will be. Things are going to get worse before they get better if the rate of growth does not change. Hopefully our local governments will realize that the best use of land is not 5 acres of yard that someone mows 3 times per week. Hopefully these families will become a little more self sufficient; plant a garden to feed themselves. It is just scary to think about what our kids will face. The human race is thifty and will survive but the Bible also tells of famines and cataclismic disasters also. As massive as it is the earth can be very fragile. Land lost to dessertification cant be reclaimed. I just dont want to see the day when we need to bank on maximum output. Most cars today will have a maximum speed of 100+ mph. Tell me what is the difference between a crash at 40 mph versus 100+ mph?

I am not saying that there won't be problems. ~a billion people go to bed hungry now, most because they lack the ability to make enough money to purchase the food that they need. IF an asteroid hits the planet or a volcanic eruption like Mount Tamburo 1816 occurs........a lot of people are going to die from the resulting global crop failures. Dittoe with any kind of rapid global cooling event. I can't change that. IF we are unable to recruit the best minds into agricultural science or excessive govt regulation prevents us from developing and implementing new technologies then supply keeping up with demand may also become impossible. It might ultimately become impossible anyway. When that happens people die. There are no guarantees in life. Folks make babies ASSUMING that the food will be there for them. I can't promise them that they will ever get it; but where there is a demand the industry will try to match that demand.

 

[dcara]

I think for the near term things will continue to become more automated. For instance, completely self controlled/automated tractors that don't require a driver. From a market stand point I think global competition will continue to increase. But looking way into the future I think everything, including meat, will be grown in a lab (or whatever they call them then) since they are doing some of that now. Remember Charlton Heston's famous line "Its people, Soylent Green is people."

 

[Brandonm22]

But looking way into the future I think everything, including meat, will be grown in a lab (or whatever they call them then) since they are doing some of that now."

100 people riding around in a spaceship you maybe theoretically COULD feed in a lab. We got almost seven billion people. We are talking about 10, 12, 15, maybe one day 20 billion people. It will really be hard to artificially generate the amount of energy that the crops (and grass) pulls direct from the sun. The plants through photosynthesis convert that sunlight into a form of energy that is usable for us and our livestock. You COULD generate that kind of energy building nuclear reactors all over the place. Now converting that raw energy into hydrogen and then mixing it with carbon, water, and oxygen to produce edible hydro-carbon chains and doing that on a scale where billions of people eat would be an incredibly marvelous feat of human engineering. My only question is why would you want to???? It would seem a whole lot easier (and likely tastier) to just grow rice, corn, tomatoes, soybeans, etc.

 

[dcara]

The energy generation is just a technology issue. I believe fusion power will eventually happen. But we could debate endlessly, and to no avail, what may or may not happen in the distant future. All we can really do is list the possibilities we can think of. But what may actually happen may be something we never thought of. The internet is a good example of this. Though cell phones have been predicted since the days of Dick Tracy comics and Star Trek in the 60's. No one ever imagined this internet thing, or what a major part it would play in interconnecting the world and individuals. I saw something a few months ago about the progress they were making in translating electrical signals in the brain into transmittable data which could eventually turn the world wide web into the world wide mind. That would be pretty weird stuff.

 

[backhoeboogie]

Interesting thread.

When the population finally outgrows what can be fed, you'll see armed guards over food just like you have now over banks and money. When producing food become highly profitable, corps will take off with it.