Prices in the Future aka Cattle Crystal Ball

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:lol2: I sure hope you guys are right about the new normal. But when pork loin hits $1.50 in the first quarter of 2015 as I read in some prediction article a while back, the joy ride could be over.

Always remember that nobody owes anyone a living. That includes cattle producers. Nothing stopping kill cows from being worth $400 if that is what the market decides.
 
Sunfish":2v7zddhm said:
In the late 80's bred cows were bringing 1200.00 then in early 90's you'd be lucky to get 500.00

No big fall cow sales yet, but the current cow market here is $1450 to $1800. I thought it would be more like $1800 to $2150.
I asked a local jockey who was expanding - - he said no one. Locally some meadows are still under water, and they either don't want to buy $2.20 corn or they don't want to work more.
I think there is a shortage of folks who are willing to feed through an arctic vortex - - rather than go ice fishing. :banana: Some are cashing out instead of expanding... So where in North America will this much discussed expansion going to occur ?
 
Just like fuel, there is a top. If beef continues up or stays high, less people will eat beef.

Prices will go down. I sell freezer beef and people are already deciding not to buy or just not buy as much as they have. Guess what I'm going to do if I can't sell it?
 
I just got the market report.. high selling price for 3-400 lb steers was $3.90/lb, average was $3.10... d@mn, $1000 dinks!

I don't think prices will stay where they are now forever, but barring another BSE crisis, I think they'll stay decent. I think last year we got about $1.50/lb for steers, and I think that could be in the future again, and $2.00 for certain.
 
The steers under 400lbs are flirting around the $4 mark here. Big sale here tomorrow, and about 1000 calves on offer of all sizes and type, should get a good showing of what things are worth. Top dollar 5 weight steers should be worth $1500 to $1600 based on nearby sales in Manitoba.
 
Sure mucks up any crystal ball... you're just about stupid to NOT sell out now. I feel prices like this are completely unsustainable for any length of time, and there will have to be a correction coming.

I'm sure it isn't easy for feed lots, and even packaging plants, and heck, some may shut down... I have a very hard time shedding tears for them as they made a lot of money off the cow/calf guys for decades, but if they shut down it's not going to be better for us later.
 
Aaron- Always remember that nobody owes anyone a living.
:clap: :tiphat:

One thing that has not been mentioned so far is the amount of land that is taken out of cattle production every year for suburbs, rural McMansion communities, and other purposes. Last Saturday while buying a $50 hydraulic hose from JD I had the same conversation with another cattleman. He wants to expand but has had to hold firm at 100 head because he cannot find any pasture. There is more than enough acreage of people who will rent to you for hay but not for the actual livestock.

It seems that nearly every other day I receive some kind of nonsense email from an ultra liberal Jewish gal I grew up with telling me I am ruining the planet by raising cattle. There is a book out there called Meatonomics that has wadded up everyone's panties.

I am not trying to jinx this but the fundamentals look solid for prices to stick where they are now.
 
Well the local sale was today. 1449 head. Never had anything in it, holding out till next sale on 25th. Anyways, highest selling gross dollar calves were Simm/RA steers (big bunch) averaging 787 lbs. Sold for $1928 each. Majority of calves, heifers and steers, didn't matter if they were 450 to 650 lbs, sold for between $1500 and $1700. Some duds and dinks sold for $1200 to $1300. One 250 lb heifer sold for $1025. One 170 lb steer sold for $500. Highest $/lb calves were in the $3.70 area for 5-weight CharX steers. Cow and bull prices were steady compared to month ago - maybe nickel off on some of the cows.
 
JWBrahman":1opudsda said:
He wants to expand but has had to hold firm at 100 head because he cannot find any pasture. There is more than enough acreage of people who will rent to you for hay but not for the actual livestock.

Can you lease hay ground and then put up fence ?
 
Stocker Steve":3d6tywpf said:
JWBrahman":3d6tywpf said:
He wants to expand but has had to hold firm at 100 head because he cannot find any pasture. There is more than enough acreage of people who will rent to you for hay but not for the actual livestock.

Can you lease hay ground and then put up fence ?

Here in MO people don't want to deal with livestock and renters. When the last drought came through and hay prices spiked people saw that they can make as much money cutting hay a time or two a year and only having to put up with people for a few days. A lot of rent ground around here went from cattle to hay only within the last few years.
 
J&D Cattle":xxe8n3oc said:
Stocker Steve":xxe8n3oc said:
Can you lease hay ground and then put up fence ?

Here in MO people don't want to deal with livestock and renters. When the last drought came through and hay prices spiked people saw that they can make as much money cutting hay a time or two a year and only having to put up with people for a few days. A lot of rent ground around here went from cattle to hay only within the last few years.

A lot of rental pasture here went from cattle and deer - - to deer only...
A neighbor is one deer only guy. Now "his deer" come across the road to eat off mine all summer and fall because his browse is too rank. :roll:
 
Stocker Steve":2k0hznes said:
J&D Cattle":2k0hznes said:
Stocker Steve":2k0hznes said:
Can you lease hay ground and then put up fence ?

Here in MO people don't want to deal with livestock and renters. When the last drought came through and hay prices spiked people saw that they can make as much money cutting hay a time or two a year and only having to put up with people for a few days. A lot of rent ground around here went from cattle to hay only within the last few years.

A lot of rental pasture here went from cattle and deer - - to deer only...

That hasn't happened in my area yet but landowners do like not having cattle and renters on the ground during hunting season. I think this is another factor when they decide to kick cattle off the ground.
 
Sometimes you really have to work with the owners who are big hunters. One property I rent we move the cows up into a small lot near the road and feed hay during hunting season even though we still have grass. Costs me some hay for a month but it keeps everyone happy.
 
Toad":qvlal7qk said:
Sometimes you really have to work with the owners who are big hunters. One property I rent we move the cows up into a small lot near the road and feed hay during hunting season even though we still have grass. Costs me some hay for a month but it keeps everyone happy.

Keeps your cattle safer too.
 
Stocker Steve":qnxxd1jy said:
Aaron":qnxxd1jy said:
Majority of calves, heifers and steers, didn't matter if they were 450 to 650 lbs, sold for between $1500 and $1700.

What is the thinking here ?

Lots of orders for those weight calves, so the bidding was fierce. Especially those right around 500 lbs, steers or heifers. Pretty much guaranteed $1500 and many over $1600. If I can get $1660 for my good steers next sale, they will be worth exactly double what they were the exact same time last year. The smaller steers would need to get $1560 to be double the money.
 
Aaron":1awgs7it said:
Majority of calves, heifers and steers, didn't matter if they were 450 to 650 lbs, sold for between $1500 and $1700. Lots of orders for those weight calves, so the bidding was fierce. Especially those right around 500 lbs, steers or heifers. Pretty much guaranteed $1500 and many over $1600.

The classic 5 wt is a popular size. I have noticed that value of gain often drops after about 550 pounds. They must be rounding down...

So what were they paying for 550# vs. 650#. ?
 
What about inflation? 2%? Laughable. Someone mentioned bred cows hit $1200 in the late 80s. What would $1200 buy in 80s as compared to now? Our Federal Reserve has more control over the future dollar value of beef, and everything else for that matter, than most people will acknowledge.
 
Stocker Steve":21umg0cd said:
Aaron":21umg0cd said:
Majority of calves, heifers and steers, didn't matter if they were 450 to 650 lbs, sold for between $1500 and $1700. Lots of orders for those weight calves, so the bidding was fierce. Especially those right around 500 lbs, steers or heifers. Pretty much guaranteed $1500 and many over $1600.

The classic 5 wt is a popular size. I have noticed that value of gain often drops after about 550 pounds. They must be rounding down...

So what were they paying for 550# vs. 650#. ?

Here is the market report for that sale, Steve.

http://www.ontariobeef.com/markets/auction-markets/rainyriver-stocker.aspx
 

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