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<blockquote data-quote="HerefordSire" data-source="post: 662448" data-attributes="member: 4437"><p><em>No Doc around, so I will reply.</em></p><p></p><p><em>First of all, noone needs EPD numbers.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>Secondly, you mentioned the "look of an animal" and I cheated and read ahead at another one of your posts regarding 35 years of experience. The odds of changing someone who has resisted change this far, is slim to none, so I usually will not take the time to write related text. However, there may be someone reading that is open to a decent reply, so I will invest a little bit of text toward these readers.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>"Leverage" is the key word I choose to use, used in the context of high level management instead of low level management. An analagy to my meaning is like having 10 cows relative to 1,000 cows under management. The principal is the same. If I make one positive simple change in the way I manage 10 cows, well the total amount of change is not that much. On the other hand, the same change against 1,000 cows could make a difference of $100K or more. If you raised high dollar purebreds, then a positive change could equate to $1M. The point is, a small change, depending on the amount of leverage you are working with, can explode numbers.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>"Probability" is the other key word. Even if an animal is unproven or even if someone cooks books, there is a real probability of a value associated with an underlying actual value. Science and mathematics are used to predict future values. When the predictibility increases, risk and potential margins are lowered. Likewise, when prediction accuracy is decreased, risk and potential margins increase. One strategy is to figure out where the risk is actually lower than the market thinks and capture this additional spread. </em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>There are many other strategies one can employ using science, mathemetics, and computers to uncover leverage using probabilities in addition to appearance.</em></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HerefordSire, post: 662448, member: 4437"] [i]No Doc around, so I will reply.[/i] [i]First of all, noone needs EPD numbers. Secondly, you mentioned the "look of an animal" and I cheated and read ahead at another one of your posts regarding 35 years of experience. The odds of changing someone who has resisted change this far, is slim to none, so I usually will not take the time to write related text. However, there may be someone reading that is open to a decent reply, so I will invest a little bit of text toward these readers. "Leverage" is the key word I choose to use, used in the context of high level management instead of low level management. An analagy to my meaning is like having 10 cows relative to 1,000 cows under management. The principal is the same. If I make one positive simple change in the way I manage 10 cows, well the total amount of change is not that much. On the other hand, the same change against 1,000 cows could make a difference of $100K or more. If you raised high dollar purebreds, then a positive change could equate to $1M. The point is, a small change, depending on the amount of leverage you are working with, can explode numbers. "Probability" is the other key word. Even if an animal is unproven or even if someone cooks books, there is a real probability of a value associated with an underlying actual value. Science and mathematics are used to predict future values. When the predictibility increases, risk and potential margins are lowered. Likewise, when prediction accuracy is decreased, risk and potential margins increase. One strategy is to figure out where the risk is actually lower than the market thinks and capture this additional spread. There are many other strategies one can employ using science, mathemetics, and computers to uncover leverage using probabilities in addition to appearance.[/i] [/QUOTE]
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