Please give me a history lesson.

[Walker]

Does anyone have any idea what month between now and December,that has historicaly, been the most profitable to sell open and cull cows. And if possible let me know what you think triggers this month to be a better option. By the way we're in East Tennessee. Thanks for any comments.

 

[poorboy]

August and the reason is the school lunch program IMHO Just a guess.

 

[TheBullLady]

November would be my choice.. before December is generally better here. Your market area may be different.

 

[1982vett]

This year it was July. February - March has been pretty good in the past in these parts. Realize these are outside your poll so I would have to take a shot at "now" to get in on the tail end of the current spike.

 

[somn]

Does anyone have any idea what month between now and December,that has historicaly, been the most profitable to sell open and cull cows. And if possible let me know what you think triggers this month to be a better option. By the way we're in East Tennessee. Thanks for any comments.

Since 1997 that month would be August for the high.

Cow Prices – Seasonal Highs and Lows
To help get an idea of how predictable the seasonality of cull cow prices can be, let's look at which months have had the seasonal low and high prices for cull cows over the past 10 years.

Interestingly, since 1997 the lowest price for utility cows for the year has always occurred in November, December, January, or February. At its low, cull cow price has been 10-12% below the average price for the year.

Conversely, the high price for the year occurred during either the late spring (March, April, or May) or mid-summer (July or August) in all years except one. Those high prices were approximately 10% above the average for the year.

http://americancowman.com/business/summer_culling/

 

[pdfangus]

My answer would be totally different.

rather than studying price returns i would look at the costs of retaining the cow.

Generally when she weans a calf and turns up open her productivity is lost and she becomes a liability. what does it cost to maintain this liability? She could fall over dead and be a total loss. Do you have grass for her to lie about and grow fat without consuming resources better ued by pregnant cows. then hold her for the time to get to the high price cycle. I fall calve so that when a cow is found open in the spring it is not too costly to allow her to fatten a bit on spring grass but when it starts getting dry she is going to find wheels under her pretty fast.

I will not carry an open cow through the winter to get a higher price in the spring. We are generally talking pennies per pound as opposed to the cost of carrying her.

 

[Caustic Burno]

My answer would be totally different.

rather than studying price returns i would look at the costs of retaining the cow.

Generally when she weans a calf and turns up open her productivity is lost and she becomes a liability. what does it cost to maintain this liability? She could fall over dead and be a total loss. Do you have grass for her to lie about and grow fat without consuming resources better ued by pregnant cows. then hold her for the time to get to the high price cycle. I fall calve so that when a cow is found open in the spring it is not too costly to allow her to fatten a bit on spring grass but when it starts getting dry she is going to find wheels under her pretty fast.

I will not carry an open cow through the winter to get a higher price in the spring. We are generally talking pennies per pound as opposed to the cost of carrying her.

We think along the same lines as I figure it is costing a buck and a quarter a day to keep old Belle in the pasture.

 

[jt]

seems like it is different every year of late. i have always heard the old timers say, sell by labor day. but the weather, hay availability, etc change things and sometimes drastically. have seen years when it was feasible to winter a dry cow, although that is against my grain. and have seen times when the cows were higher in dec than in april of the next year. it all depends on the cow and the conditions at the time.

if its an old no mouth, she goes. if it is a nice 3 year old, i may give her a chance to breed back unless she will bring enough to suit me at the barn.

jmo

jt

 

[backhoeboogie]

and have seen times when the cows were higher in dec than in april of the next year. it all depends on the cow and the conditions at the time.
jt

Isn't that the truth.

Everything seems upside down right now because of feed prices. 3 and 4 weights are cheaper per pound than 7 or 8 weights at times. It makes a person wonder why you even have cows; just buy light calves and sell them later after they have been on pasture a few months.

Next year it could be opposite. Or maybe even more upside down. Who knows?

 

[SRBeef]

The problem with that approach may be who is going to RAISE and sell these 3 and 4 wts/light calves at cheap prices, at least long term?? Why raise and sell anything at a loss? What kind of quality calves will you get at these prices?

 

[backhoeboogie]

What kind of quality calves will you get at these prices?

The only thing you can do is go and see. I completely dodge a doodler or ranny no matter how cheap. I am buyng heifers so I also dodge any animal that is not suited for this climate. When you sit at the sale barn and see several thousand come through, it is not hard to pick out some good ones. You know what works in your climate much better than I.

12 hours of sale barn in one setting is about all I can take. I am usually out of there by midnight.

 

[Bullbuyer]

Think about that 10% difference in real dollars - if the old cow is worth $500 - and a few months later she's worth $550 - can you keep her for the difference? Obviously in winter time the answer is no but if your pasture is good, keeping her across the summer may be different.
As far as why the price fluctuations - I think it is a couple of reasons- 1) Simple economics - if the supply eases, the demand increases and 2) the start of summer grilling season has a big impact - cull cows and old bulls will make hamburger.