Panademic Times and a 150% Calf Crop !

[SBMF 2015]

You have missed some of the obvious answers to your dilemma.
1. Go to year round grazing. Cutting out feeding hay will lower your costs.
2. Raise your weaning weight. You can do this by buying a top bred bull. Some would suggest SAV, possibly an American bull.
3. Rent pasture for extremely low price. You can do this by renting from the government (BLM. USFS)
4. Direct market all your beef. Everyone needs beef. Take for example your BIL's cousins who knows a guy who owns a freezer.
5. Raise special breeds such as mini's. They sell extremely well to the suburban population.
6. Get into the purebred market. I hear there is a huge demand for Black Angus bulls right now. Take advantage of this under supplied market.
7. Raise and sell bred heifers. With the expanding national beef herd this is a real winner.

Have I given you enough ideas? :welcome: Or insulted enough people? :cboy: :hide:

Well, while I like some of your ideas especially #7. Some of the others don't fit in the Midwest or are just as risky as the open market.
1)4-6" of snow is about as deep as I've ever seen a cow dig for grass, that's a lot of work for what she gets. Then the creek freezes over, hard and the cows are forced to eat snow until you can get them moved home where the feed and water tank is.
3) There is no BLM, USFS land for grazing in Illinois.
4) What do you do when your BIL's cousins who knows a guy who owns a freezer. Gets his freezer full of your beef and the check doesn't clear? It doesn't even have to get to the freezer. It could still be hanging at the locker and they back out. Now your stuck with a hanging beef and no cash.
6) Probably 33% of Angus bulls for sale should have been cut when they were weaned. We are flooded with low quality black bulls. Last May you could have bought 40 yrling Angus bulls for scale price at our local sale barn's May bred cow sale. Every production catalog I've seen this year has had several yrlings that would have made nice club calves.

None of the above was to be taken seriously. I am certain the Steve understood that. It was all done in sarcastic humor. I have done #7 the bred heifer deal (Steve knows that). Made good money doing it. But there is no way on God's green earth that I would be doing that right now.

Okay.
I still would look at breeding hfrs here. If you could get them bought right. 3yr olds with calves at there side brought $2,000-$2,350 earlier this month. That's pretty avg for an April bred cow sale here. Bred hfrs here in February brought $1,600-$2,200.
That should work.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Bred heifers here brought U$S 750 to 1200 last fall. Took waiting a while at a big sale, and about U$S 850, to buy ones that might make you money. Bred heifers here brought U$S 1100 to 1525 this spring. Seems like you have to haul bred heifers SW to have a reasonable chance of making a profit on them.

 

[Dave]

I know that I didn't see a bred heifer this spring bring anything over $1,200. The best bred cows I saw were 3 & 4 year olds in a dispersal that brought $1,475. And they were dang sure good cows. I figure the break even on bred heifers is in the $1,400 neighborhood. And that is selling for a late fall early winter delivery. Feed them through the winter the break even is higher.

 

[Aaron]

Goes to show that there are still some areas where the farmer's banker drinks too much.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Normally, but 700# heifer calves are on sale this month...

 

[Stocker Steve]

I know that I didn't see a bred heifer this spring bring anything over $1,2000.

Highest price bred heifers are often owned by the auctioneer, or one of his relatives, in this area.

 

[Dave]

Normally, but 700# heifer calves are on sale this month...

The market reports here are $1.15-$1.25 for 700# heifers. If you plan on selling them as bred heifers this fall you better figure the top end of that price range. And I would like them to be 750# to 800# now. I did TAI that cost about $50 a head. A calving ease clean up bull. Vaccinate for everything under the sun. PI test. Pasture and feed. Maybe in the black at $1,400 but the margin is pretty slim. And I never saw any sell for $1,400......

 

[Dave]

Neighbor B had me going to sales to buy feeder calves. He also told me to pay $800 for heifers that would make replacements. I never got a single heifer bought.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I did a deep dive last night into the 2019 FBM report. A couple MN cow/calf profit predictors stood out:

- Weaning weight did not matter but pounds sold per cow did. You want a good weaning % and a low cost back grounding system. I think the point here is that there can be a lot of back grounding overhead costs that are not usually accounted for.

-Type of stored feed used was all over the map. There were three lower cost approaches. Either feed cheap by product (mostly beets here), or lots of corn silage (mostly to back grounded calves), or lie about what it costs to make hay. I think the point here is that a short grazing season makes winter feed choices critical.

-Cow culling rate does matter. Higher profit operations reported only an 8 to 10 percent culling rate on cows. Not sure that is sustainable? I think the point here is that heifer development is expensive compared to current cull cow prices.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Bred prices seem to be extremely local. I do agree that many are losing money on heifer development.

What would it cost to develop bred heifers if you gave them standard shots and then dumped them out on BLM with a bull?

 

[SBMF 2015]

I totally agree, bred cow/hfr prices are very localized. There are very few herds large herds in Illinois. Most cows are ran on ground to rough to row crop. There for most small (under 50hd) herds are supplemented with grain income. Another very localized thing is mature cow size. I like 1250-1450 lb cows. I can usually buy them fairly cheap compared to the sale average, because they are not big enough for most buyers in our area.
I figure $900 plus the cost of the weaned her calf is what I have invested in a hfr by the time her first calf hits the ground.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Heifer calves don't eat much, but you can also spend a bunch on breeding and yardage. I usually run them with cows. This kind won't top a sale but they are well adapted breds.

The $900 over an 18 month period is $1.67 per day. How much of that is yardage?

 

[Dave]

Bred prices seem to be extremely local. I do agree that many are losing money on heifer development.

What would it cost to develop bred heifers if you gave them standard shots and then dumped them out on BLM with a bull?

I will have to ask Neighbor B because that is his program. At least I think it is. He also has irrigated pasture so the heifers might go there. Come to think about it the only thing I have done with his replacement heifers is help at Bangs vaccination. But I do know that the limit he gave me in buying this spring was $800.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Confinement heifer development cost is very very scary. There are some fully loaded budgets out there on university dairy web sites. Many start with a 2...

Da herd quitter types let their heifers run on range and say they are fine with a low PG rate. I don't have BLM or burnt over rain forest to graze, but I get the point. i have been moving in this direction, and mine settle, but the weak point seems to be first calver rebred. I blame that on not enough Hereford genetics. :nod:

So i think the bottom line is that you can not afford to retain heifers - - you are running terminal cows. Nothing wrong with that. It is just a different business model.

 

[Dave]

The grass is cheap on BLM but the labor cost pretty much kill that. I know that B turned out some cows early to help with the feed bill and to free up time. They were feeding from 7:30 until 2:00 lots of days. So turning them out freed up time to get some other things done. Then a couple days ago he said they had a week and a half of hard riding coming up to get them gathered. That is B, a 21 yo son, 17 yo daughter, and 2 hired men. He has another guy working full time fixing fence.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Why gather heifers at this time of year?

 

[Dave]

Why gather heifers at this time of year?

I think it was pairs that the calves hadn't been branded. The heifers are at a place about 20 miles from here. A week ago I know they were still being fed. But you also have to move cows from one pasture to the next. Some allotments require regular moves. When the pastures are 10,000 acres of pretty rough ground it takes some time to find and move the cows. All done horse back.

 

[Stocker Steve]

It looks like cash steer calf prices and bred prices, are blowing off the future fat prices, and speculating on a good fat market next year. Do you have another take?

 

[Dave]

It looks like cash steer calf prices and bred prices, are blowing off the future fat prices, and speculating on a good fat market next year. Do you have another take?

I wish I had that crystal ball. I am glad that the stockers are already contracted. And I am sticking with the one and done broken mouth cows. I think that the futures are being driven by scared money. Future feeders are somewhere in the $1.15-1.20 area. B quit sending me to the sale. I couldn't get #600 steers for his $1.33 budget. He was looking at a bunch on Superior. He figured with the haul that he could go $1.28. He got on the phone as they were about to sell. He was told that they are selling now. They had $1.45 and asking for $1.46. He said well that sure isn't me.

 

[Stocker Steve]

We know beef supply will go up with heavier fats and continued dairy cow culling.
We know beef demand will go down due to restaurant sales and unemployment.
It is interesting how well the big name bull sales have done. Obviously there is a segment that is focused on the genetics they want.
Some have talked about a major exit this fall. Feed cost will be a local factor. I am trying to slash my feed costs.
I think it public opinion will be huge - - are we staging a strong comeback or are we looking to be down for several more years?