Panademic Times and a 150% Calf Crop !

[Stocker Steve]

Cow/Calf numbers did not look great last year. Farm Business Management just published the northern Minnesota 2019 per cow numbers - - they averaged $646 direct expenses plus $182 of overhead vs. $605 income. Och. Good thing we are all above average on CT! :cowboy: I myself have a 150% calf crop this spring. Some would point out that I only calved out two cows so far, producing a nice bull calf and a pair of live twins, but I am trying to stay positive.

Figur'in folks would look past per cow numbers to focus on net per acre, so you can compare to other options like $2.50 corn. I did that last year and decided to run more yearlings. They look really good in the pen but I am showing a paper loss so far. Stay tuned.

With production numbers like this I decided to focus more on pandemic marketing. I have been selling freezer beef and some sort off animals on CL. Da wife is running out of places to stash the cash and thinks we are wildly profitable. :banana: Good thing she does not do the enterprize analysis.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Congrats! I believe you've flatten the financial curve.

 

[sstterry]

Congrats! I believe you've flatten the financial curve.

A good friend of mine is trying to find all the cheap steers he can to quickly feed out and sell for freezer beef. He says that he cannot keep up with the demand for freezer beef during the pandemic.

Steve, how are you selling the steers, by the lb, hanging weight, or flat price?

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Congrats! I believe you've flatten the financial curve.

A good friend of mine is trying to find all the cheap steers he can to quickly feed out and sell for freezer beef. He says that he cannot keep up with the demand for freezer beef during the pandemic.

Steve, how are you selling the steers, by the lb, hanging weight, or flat price?

I'm not Steve but what is the current definition of cheap?

 

[sstterry]

Congrats! I believe you've flatten the financial curve.

A good friend of mine is trying to find all the cheap steers he can to quickly feed out and sell for freezer beef. He says that he cannot keep up with the demand for freezer beef during the pandemic.

Steve, how are you selling the steers, by the lb, hanging weight, or flat price?

I'm not Steve but what is the current definition of cheap?

He buys a lot of dairy cross steers for beef and I know last week the was paying .60 - .90 lb for 3 and 4 weights. With the sale barns closed to the public, he is having to do this on a private treaty basis.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

A good friend of mine is trying to find all the cheap steers he can to quickly feed out and sell for freezer beef. He says that he cannot keep up with the demand for freezer beef during the pandemic.

Steve, how are you selling the steers, by the lb, hanging weight, or flat price?

I'm not Steve but what is the current definition of cheap?

He buys a lot of dairy cross steers for beef and I know last week the was paying .60 - .90 lb for 3 and 4 weights. With the sale barns closed to the public, he is having to do this on a private treaty basis.

Gotcha. I don't have anything at those prices.

 

[sstterry]

That is why he buys the dairy and dairy cross. He makes lots more profit on them than beef cows.

 

[kenny thomas]

Is the Greenville sale barn been closed? I know a couple others have been

 

[Stocker Steve]

We try to sell what they want.

Most want a cooler of quality burger by the pound. For this we usually grind young cows off pasture. If you don't have that kind, there appears to be some deals now on open diary heifers at 50 to 62 cents.

A few want a half priced by hanging weight, and then we need to select a higher quality animal. For this we usually sort off a "replacement" heifer. If you don't have that kind, there are beef heiferettes now in the low 70s that could be finished.

 

[sstterry]

Is the Greenville sale barn been closed? I know a couple others have been

As far as I know, they are still open, but according to the Governor's order of no more than a gathering of 10, they are only letting in a few buyers. Basically you can take cattle, but you can't buy or watch them sell.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Post peak pandemic is going to "reopen" with a fraction of the travel and restaurant business we had before. My guess is that it will take 3 years to come back to 80-90% of 2019. So choice beef will have to be cheaper. How would you adjust a for profit business to 55 cent cows and $1.10 calves?

 

[Nesikep]

Dangit! I'm only at 105%.. and it may drop to 100% if this wheezy calf doesn't pick up

 

[Aaron]

How would you adjust a for profit business to 55 cent cows and $1.10 calves?

You bleed equity until the industry collapses. :shock:

 

[Stocker Steve]

How would you adjust a for profit business to 55 cent cows and $1.10 calves?

You bleed equity until the industry collapses. :shock:

True, but I was looking for alternatives to this.
Since I have a habit of stocking heavy - - more one cut and then graze is an option.
Since I have a habit of retaining a lot o heifers - - extending cow longevity is an option.
Since I don't believe in preg checking - - selling all my late calvers is an option.
Since I have tried to market locally -- putting calves on an out of state pot is an option.
and then there is my 150% calf crop! :cowboy:

 

[Aaron]

How would you adjust a for profit business to 55 cent cows and $1.10 calves?

You bleed equity until the industry collapses. :shock:

True, but I was looking for alternatives to this.
Since I have a habit of stocking heavy - - more one cut and then graze is an option.
Since I have a habit of retaining a lot o heifers - - extending cow longevity is an option.
Since I don't believe in preg checking - - selling all my late calvers is an option.
Since I have tried to market locally -- putting calves on an out of state pot is an option.
and then there is my 150% calf crop! :cowboy:

But cows are still .55 and calves 1.10 with all your inputs climbing other than fuel. If you can eliminate any hay making whatsoever, you might do OK. One or two major machine breakdowns pretty much dissolves any money you might make. Unless there is a Trump check for that too...

 

[Dave]

You have missed some of the obvious answers to your dilemma.
1. Go to year round grazing. Cutting out feeding hay will lower your costs.
2. Raise your weaning weight. You can do this by buying a top bred bull. Some would suggest SAV, possibly an American bull.
3. Rent pasture for extremely low price. You can do this by renting from the government (BLM. USFS)
4. Direct market all your beef. Everyone needs beef. Take for example your BIL's cousins who knows a guy who owns a freezer.
5. Raise special breeds such as mini's. They sell extremely well to the suburban population.
6. Get into the purebred market. I hear there is a huge demand for Black Angus bulls right now. Take advantage of this under supplied market.
7. Raise and sell bred heifers. With the expanding national beef herd this is a real winner.

Have I given you enough ideas? :welcome: Or insulted enough people? :cboy: :hide:

 

[Stocker Steve]

There will be a Trump check for all major commodities, and then they will throw another billion or so for specialties. This maintains landlords and JD dealers, but may not generate a profit for producers.

I am forcing myself to do a zero base budget this year and most of my input costs will be going down. First goal is to cash flow during the pandemic, Second goal is to rebalance enterprises.

 

[SBMF 2015]

You have missed some of the obvious answers to your dilemma.
1. Go to year round grazing. Cutting out feeding hay will lower your costs.
2. Raise your weaning weight. You can do this by buying a top bred bull. Some would suggest SAV, possibly an American bull.
3. Rent pasture for extremely low price. You can do this by renting from the government (BLM. USFS)
4. Direct market all your beef. Everyone needs beef. Take for example your BIL's cousins who knows a guy who owns a freezer.
5. Raise special breeds such as mini's. They sell extremely well to the suburban population.
6. Get into the purebred market. I hear there is a huge demand for Black Angus bulls right now. Take advantage of this under supplied market.
7. Raise and sell bred heifers. With the expanding national beef herd this is a real winner.

Have I given you enough ideas? :welcome: Or insulted enough people? :cboy: :hide:

Well, while I like some of your ideas especially #7. Some of the others don't fit in the Midwest or are just as risky as the open market.
1)4-6" of snow is about as deep as I've ever seen a cow dig for grass, that's a lot of work for what she gets. Then the creek freezes over, hard and the cows are forced to eat snow until you can get them moved home where the feed and water tank is.
3) There is no BLM, USFS land for grazing in Illinois.
4) What do you do when your BIL's cousins who knows a guy who owns a freezer. Gets his freezer full of your beef and the check doesn't clear? It doesn't even have to get to the freezer. It could still be hanging at the locker and they back out. Now your stuck with a hanging beef and no cash.
6) Probably 33% of Angus bulls for sale should have been cut when they were weaned. We are flooded with low quality black bulls. Last May you could have bought 40 yrling Angus bulls for scale price at our local sale barn's May bred cow sale. Every production catalog I've seen this year has had several yrlings that would have made nice club calves.

 

[Dave]

You have missed some of the obvious answers to your dilemma.
1. Go to year round grazing. Cutting out feeding hay will lower your costs.
2. Raise your weaning weight. You can do this by buying a top bred bull. Some would suggest SAV, possibly an American bull.
3. Rent pasture for extremely low price. You can do this by renting from the government (BLM. USFS)
4. Direct market all your beef. Everyone needs beef. Take for example your BIL's cousins who knows a guy who owns a freezer.
5. Raise special breeds such as mini's. They sell extremely well to the suburban population.
6. Get into the purebred market. I hear there is a huge demand for Black Angus bulls right now. Take advantage of this under supplied market.
7. Raise and sell bred heifers. With the expanding national beef herd this is a real winner.

Have I given you enough ideas? :welcome: Or insulted enough people? :cboy: :hide:

Well, while I like some of your ideas especially #7. Some of the others don't fit in the Midwest or are just as risky as the open market.
1)4-6" of snow is about as deep as I've ever seen a cow dig for grass, that's a lot of work for what she gets. Then the creek freezes over, hard and the cows are forced to eat snow until you can get them moved home where the feed and water tank is.
3) There is no BLM, USFS land for grazing in Illinois.
4) What do you do when your BIL's cousins who knows a guy who owns a freezer. Gets his freezer full of your beef and the check doesn't clear? It doesn't even have to get to the freezer. It could still be hanging at the locker and they back out. Now your stuck with a hanging beef and no cash.
6) Probably 33% of Angus bulls for sale should have been cut when they were weaned. We are flooded with low quality black bulls. Last May you could have bought 40 yrling Angus bulls for scale price at our local sale barn's May bred cow sale. Every production catalog I've seen this year has had several yrlings that would have made nice club calves.

None of the above was to be taken seriously. I am certain the Steve understood that. It was all done in sarcastic humor. I have done #7 the bred heifer deal (Steve knows that). Made good money doing it. But there is no way on God's green earth that I would be doing that right now.

 

[Stocker Steve]

You have missed some of the obvious answers to your dilemma.
1. Go to year round grazing. Cutting out feeding hay will lower your costs.
2. Raise your weaning weight. You can do this by buying a top bred bull. Some would suggest SAV, possibly an American bull.
3. Rent pasture for extremely low price. You can do this by renting from the government (BLM. USFS)
4. Direct market all your beef. Everyone needs beef. Take for example your BIL's cousins who knows a guy who owns a freezer.
5. Raise special breeds such as mini's. They sell extremely well to the suburban population.
6. Get into the purebred market. I hear there is a huge demand for Black Angus bulls right now. Take advantage of this under supplied market.
7. Raise and sell bred heifers. With the expanding national beef herd this is a real winner.

Dave - you nailed it. You should start writing for Beef mag!

2) I think a lower weaning weight and selling yearlings should work after the feeder market bottoms.
3) Low price pasture is corn stocks in many parts of the country.