Opinion on cattle and corn prices, 2012 and

[mncowboy]

Anyone have an opinion what the spring of 2012 and beyond holds for cattle prices? And how long the corn markets can sustain their current trend?
And one more question, what would cattle prices do if corn prices came down drastically? Would calf prices fall, or go even higher with feed lots becoming more optimistic?

 

[Isomade]

All anyone can do is guess. Everything is so volatile these days. My guess is that boh will remain high. We might see calf prices level off some if corn drops, but not to the days of sub 100/cwt. In the spring cows will be sky high. But that will hinge on individual markets. In the south central we are gonna need significant rainfall. Now that and $1 will get you a stick of gum.

 

[Howdyjabo]

If CASH cattle didn't drop off Monday its gonna take something catastrophic to drop them. By the time something catastrophic happens the least of our worries is going to be the price of corn and calves.

I have been looking for a dip to buy calves-- I'm not looking for dips any more.

 

[shaz]

If CASH cattle didn't drop off Monday its gonna take something catastrophic to drop them. By the time something catastrophic happens the least of our worries is going to be the price of corn and calves.

I have been looking for a dip to buy calves-- I'm not looking for dips any more.

Same here. Thinking we may get the traditional dip in Nov-Dec but that REALLY didn't work out last year. I think I'm going to roll the dice on a trailer load of heifers but we'll see. I'm still trying to play defense.

 

[Howdyjabo]

I'm thinking about playing the same defense
I hate heifers though

 

[shaz]

I'm thinking about playing the same defense
I hate heifers though

Why is that? Seems like that would be the most flexible route if everything went sour.
Just asking.

 

[kenny thomas]

My thoughts only and as my signiture says dont bet the farm on them. I think cows will be very high by spring but pretty high even by December. I see no reason for the calf prices to go down a lot. Except for the drought areas numbers being sold are down. Buyers are already getting concerned that the numbers may not be there, in the east at least. Looks like a few good years to me. Economy has gone to heck, corn prices are high, and the calf prices have done well. I am buying as we have lots of grass and barns full of hay. Might even lease another farm and load it up also.

 

[Howdyjabo]

I'm thinking about playing the same defense
I hate heifers though

Why is that? Seems like that would be the most flexible route if everything went sour.
Just asking.

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I just hate heifers compared to steers-
my neighbors have bulls- and a good fence is sometimes NOT enough
although it might be handy if I want to sell them as bred heifers- if a tree "fell" on the fence

 

[dcarp]

My 2cents worth is that next year cattle prices in general will be up. If the heard nationwide is down 6%, less supply ='s higher prices, unless USA declines into depression.

Howdy, had trouble keeping my Brangus bull out of heifer pasture but a good hot wire did the trick. Put the wire above the top wire on 5 strand fence. A couple of good zaps and he learned to leave it alone. He still stomps up and down the fence line but stays in.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Global demand is projected to be up a little in 2012.
Options indicate about a 25% chance of a significant corn price drop in 2012.
I am seeing some empty pastures even though hay is cheap here. Checked on a couple - - one is now being saved for the deer and the other is being saved for a relative who may need it and ... Bottom line is there are fewer cows in this country and we have rain. Local plant in killing cows trucked up from Texas.
Harlan' last column in Beef mag concluded that ethonal did not effect cow/calf cost trends but it did reduce the price buyers could pay for feeders.
I think a betting man would buy some LRP, and then take yearling (heifers) to grass next spring. And so I get stuck with 75% bull calves this spring...

But no one REALLY knows.

 

[hayrack]

I'm thinking about playing the same defense
I hate heifers though

Why is that? Seems like that would be the most flexible route if everything went sour.
Just asking.

A friend that feeds cattle likes heifers for that reason. You buy them cheaper and you have more options if things get bad. You can keep and breed and sell as bread heifers or calve them out if needed. With steers they have to go at some point.

 

[shaz]

I just brought a grass finished heifer back from the butcher. She wouldn't breed but she great on the grill. I'll sell half the meat for $900.00.

That's a lot better than having 100 holstein steers and wondering if the price will hold up.