Need advice on Culling older cattle - what to look for

[HerefordSire]

Sort of like a stock that has been profitable in the past, not necessarily going to be so in the future.

The truth is in the numbers because they do not deceive us as long as we were accurate in recording them. Any once profitable cow can begin to lose money. Any cow losing money can begin to make money. I would rather have a herd of lame and sick cows that are making me money than a herd of the best looking cows in the state that are losing me money.

 

[Douglas]

Tell me where I am wrong in this scenario hereford.
I have decided to cull for whatever reason. Not enough pasture, trying to gradually liquidate, not enough hay on hand, whatever.
I based my decision on cows to keep not on which cows were the most profitable in the past, but the ones I expect to be the most profitable in the future.

 

[HerefordSire]

Because you may be able to get more money by selling at say $600 than get a couple years of $200 profit on calves then the cow dies from old age. She is profitable both ways just more so as a cull. It is all about the future not the past.

If you have a 10 year old cow making you money, and you are considering to cull her, what do you thing she will bring? Let's be generous, and say $500. All she would have to do is have one more average calf. She has already had eight average calves without missing a beat and now one more average calf will bring in 100% of her value. Pretty darn good return if you ask me. Who is to say 8 years cannot turn into 16 years of never missing a beat?

 

[HerefordSire]

Tell me where I am wrong in this scenario hereford.
I have decided to cull for whatever reason. Not enough pasture, trying to gradually liquidate, not enough hay on hand, whatever.
I based my decision on cows to keep not on which cows were the most profitable in the past, but the ones I expect to be the most profitable in the future.

Look at the proof. Once you see red, you know what to do. It will be a sad day on the farm when you unload a cow that never missed a beat in 16 years and she finally missed one.

 

[Douglas]

"If you have a 10 year old cow making you money, and you are considering to cull her, what do you thing she will bring? Let's be generous, and say $500. All she would have to do is have one more average calf."

There is cost to keep that cow another year so obviously to replace the lost cull money would take two or three years of profitable calves or one calf and she holds her value as a cull. That may be a problem for older cows.

The problem with this also is that most people have limited pasture. The decision to keep one old cow is a decision not to keep a young replacement which could be more profitable in the future.

If you have unlimited pasture and hay they the correct decision is probably to keep the cow until she drops dead as long as she is having a calf every so often. Most are not in this situation.

I agree with you that records help us determine the profitability of a cow but the real error in your original analysis is considering the original purchase price as part of your profitability calculations. That price could have been too much or a real deal, but it has nothing to do with when or if to cull a cow. It does measure the profitability of that cow, but is not helpful in the cull or not cull decision.

 

[HerefordSire]

"If you have a 10 year old cow making you money, and you are considering to cull her, what do you thing she will bring? Let's be generous, and say $500. All she would have to do is have one more average calf."

There is cost to keep that cow another year so obviously to replace the lost cull money would take two or three years of profitable calves or one calf and she holds her value as a cull. That may be a problem for older cows.

The problem with this also is that most people have limited pasture. The decision to keep one old cow is a decision not to keep a young replacement which could be more profitable in the future.

If you have unlimited pasture and hay they the correct decision is probably to keep the cow until she drops dead as long as she is having a calf every so often. Most are not in this situation.

I agree with you that records help us determine the profitability of a cow but the real error in your original analysis is considering the original purchase price as part of your profitability calculations. That price could have been too much or a real deal, but it has nothing to do with when or if to cull a cow. It does measure the profitability of that cow, but is not helpful in the cull or not cull decision.

I can show you mathematically why to never cull a profitable cow for whatever reason if you are interested.

 

[Douglas]

"If you have a 10 year old cow making you money, and you are considering to cull her, what do you thing she will bring? Let's be generous, and say $500. All she would have to do is have one more average calf."

There is cost to keep that cow another year so obviously to replace the lost cull money would take two or three years of profitable calves or one calf and she holds her value as a cull. That may be a problem for older cows.

The problem with this also is that most people have limited pasture. The decision to keep one old cow is a decision not to keep a young replacement which could be more profitable in the future.

If you have unlimited pasture and hay they the correct decision is probably to keep the cow until she drops dead as long as she is having a calf every so often. Most are not in this situation.

I agree with you that records help us determine the profitability of a cow but the real error in your original analysis is considering the original purchase price as part of your profitability calculations. That price could have been too much or a real deal, but it has nothing to do with when or if to cull a cow. It does measure the profitability of that cow, but is not helpful in the cull or not cull decision.

I can show you mathematically why to never cull a profitable cow for whatever reason if you are interested.

OK, pm if you wish

 

[HerefordSire]

First of all, my meaning of proftitable and cost basis are probably not the same as what an accountant would use. An accountant may combine the herd (through numeric summing) thereby hiding the profitable cows, if there are any. This is the way I choose to show profitable cows, which may or may not be correct according to standard accounting procedures.

Let's say you are considering culling profitable ole Bessie. For whatever reason she has to leave the premises. The reason could be not enough hay because of a drought, not enough grazing acres, your other cows produced replacements you believe are superior, etc. For math simplicity, she has returned her overhead and her orginal cost, and she is still alive and expected to produce at least one more average calf just like she has all the other previous years. Her cost basis is zero. She is free and clear.

Since I know she has produced calves covering her overhead, we could say in a similar environment geographically, she would be expected to cover her overhead there also. For example, a farmer down the road may have room, a similar pasture and water, etc., and would likely be willing to take her in if you agree to pay the farmer a fair price which may be more or less than her current overhead is.

In this example, let's say her overhead is $20 per month plus the cost of the money. It takes her another 12 months to raise the calf. So you borrow the $240 and finance it for 12 months @ 8% APR. The cost of the money cost you $19.20 and the total overhead now becomes $260 rounded. We could say, the basic difference in her staying on my property and down the road at the farmer's property is the cost of the money which happens to be at historic lows even though I am figuring eight points.

Therefore, as long as Bessie brings me a calf worth more than $260 she puts money into my pocket. In the past sum of years, she may have always raised a calf that brought more than $260.

 

[Douglas]

Hereford your calculations are fine by me. Much better that the first analysis that included your cost basis. I agree that cows that have been profitable in the past are more likely to be profitable in the future, but you have to ignore the original purchase price you had in your first example to make the calculations. The only missing item is your opportunity cost.
The cull or not cull decision is fairly complicated and it is a question as to what is the most profitable course of action. Keeping a cow can be profitable, as well as selling a cull and buying another cow can be profitable. Selling a cull and needing less hay can be profitable. Selling and putting the money in a saving account, or renting your land can be profitable. You have to pick the best alternative based on your best estimates of the future. The scenario that produced the highest net present value is the best economic choice. These alternatives represent the opportunity cost of keeping a particular cow. Cows with an expected productive life of 10 more years for example are going to have a significantly higher present value than one with 5 more years of expected production if they have similar annual profitability.
Let me give you my personal example. I have 30 cows including 10 replacement heifers. I have 20 calves to market this fall. I have done a lot of financial projections and I have determined that my operation will be more profitable (or less of a loss) by culling 10 cows. This would allow me to keep my calves over the winter on my stockpiled fescue at a much lower cost than cows. This would also allow me to market my calves in the spring when prices are normally better. So my decision is not if to cull but which to cull. I believe my decision will improve my profitability, but of course I could be wrong, it all depends on the accuracy of my projections on prices and costs. In my estimation selling a profitable cow could result in more overall profits for my operation. In my scenario you look at past performance but you also have to look at age, foot problems, etc. in deciding which cows to cull. An older cow is more likely to drop dead, become lame, sick, or need vet care and return much less than in the past.
If prices dropped and all your cows became unprofitable you would not necessarily sell them all. You would decide what you expected the future to hold as to profits and decide accordingly whether to sell or keep. This is why I suggest that you look more toward the future and less toward the past. I think we have beaten this dead horse enough.

 

[HerefordSire]

Hereford your calculations are fine by me. Much better that the first analysis that included your cost basis. I agree that cows that have been profitable in the past are more likely to be profitable in the future, but you have to ignore the original purchase price you had in your first example to make the calculations. The only missing item is your opportunity cost.
The cull or not cull decision is fairly complicated and it is a question as to what is the most profitable course of action. Keeping a cow can be profitable, as well as selling a cull and buying another cow can be profitable. Selling a cull and needing less hay can be profitable. Selling and putting the money in a saving account, or renting your land can be profitable. You have to pick the best alternative based on your best estimates of the future. The scenario that produced the highest net present value is the best economic choice. These alternatives represent the opportunity cost of keeping a particular cow. Cows with an expected productive life of 10 more years for example are going to have a significantly higher present value than one with 5 more years of expected production if they have similar annual profitability.
Let me give you my personal example. I have 30 cows including 10 replacement heifers. I have 20 calves to market this fall. I have done a lot of financial projections and I have determined that my operation will be more profitable (or less of a loss) by culling 10 cows. This would allow me to keep my calves over the winter on my stockpiled fescue at a much lower cost than cows. This would also allow me to market my calves in the spring when prices are normally better. So my decision is not if to cull but which to cull. I believe my decision will improve my profitability, but of course I could be wrong, it all depends on the accuracy of my projections on prices and costs. In my estimation selling a profitable cow could result in more overall profits for my operation. In my scenario you look at past performance but you also have to look at age, foot problems, etc. in deciding which cows to cull. An older cow is more likely to drop dead, become lame, sick, or need vet care and return much less than in the past.
If prices dropped and all your cows became unprofitable you would not necessarily sell them all. You would decide what you expected the future to hold as to profits and decide accordingly whether to sell or keep. This is why I suggest that you look more toward the future and less toward the past. I think we have beaten this dead horse enough.

Since you previously brought up stock as in securities....ride a winner and sell a loser....then before the end of the year breakeven by pairing up losses and gains.

I was hoping you would bring up capitalization cost of a younger problem-free cow and point out that the main difference is the cap cost...and between these types of cows is one hasn't earned her keep but you expect her to make more money.

 

[backhoeboogie]

Hereford your calculations are fine by me. Much better that the first analysis that included your cost basis. I agree that cows that have been profitable in the past are more likely to be profitable in the future, but you have to ignore the original purchase price you had in your first example to make the calculations. The only missing item is your opportunity cost.
The cull or not cull decision is fairly complicated and it is a question as to what is the most profitable course of action. Keeping a cow can be profitable, as well as selling a cull and buying another cow can be profitable. Selling a cull and needing less hay can be profitable. Selling and putting the money in a saving account, or renting your land can be profitable. You have to pick the best alternative based on your best estimates of the future. The scenario that produced the highest net present value is the best economic choice. These alternatives represent the opportunity cost of keeping a particular cow. Cows with an expected productive life of 10 more years for example are going to have a significantly higher present value than one with 5 more years of expected production if they have similar annual profitability.
Let me give you my personal example. I have 30 cows including 10 replacement heifers. I have 20 calves to market this fall. I have done a lot of financial projections and I have determined that my operation will be more profitable (or less of a loss) by culling 10 cows. This would allow me to keep my calves over the winter on my stockpiled fescue at a much lower cost than cows. This would also allow me to market my calves in the spring when prices are normally better. So my decision is not if to cull but which to cull. I believe my decision will improve my profitability, but of course I could be wrong, it all depends on the accuracy of my projections on prices and costs. In my estimation selling a profitable cow could result in more overall profits for my operation. In my scenario you look at past performance but you also have to look at age, foot problems, etc. in deciding which cows to cull. An older cow is more likely to drop dead, become lame, sick, or need vet care and return much less than in the past.
If prices dropped and all your cows became unprofitable you would not necessarily sell them all. You would decide what you expected the future to hold as to profits and decide accordingly whether to sell or keep. This is why I suggest that you look more toward the future and less toward the past. I think we have beaten this dead horse enough.

Since you previously brought up stock as in securities....ride a winner and sell a loser....then before the end of the year breakeven by pairing up losses and gains.

I was hoping you would bring up capitalization cost of a younger problem-free cow and point out that the main difference is the cap cost...and between these types of cows is one hasn't earned her keep but you expect her to make more money.

If that old cow's calf is still a winner each year, she can hang. There's not much delta between SS and a cutter/canner. The year the calf tapers, it is time to make hard decisions. If you can't make sound decisions, you don't need to be in business.

Your evaluation of that cow years back is what you are accountable for. You need to fix all bad judgements asap in everything.

If that old gal is marginal, a hard winter or a summer drought can take its toll in a hurry.

 

[Douglas]

"Since you previously brought up stock as in securities....ride a winner and sell a loser....then before the end of the year breakeven by pairing up losses and gains."

The point of culling is like trying to sell your stock before they become losers, when the price drops your too late, same with cows.

 

[Brute 23]

The point of culling is to get rid of that mouth to feed. There is no doubt she will pay for herself over the next X amount of years... but if you don't make it that amount of years then what? I will cull now before I go into debt banking that cow will produce x-amount later on.

1) any problems... if they are still there
2) old cows... if they have less than 5 yrs left in them
3) heifers... if there are 20 ready to be bred in 2 months or 20 working mommas to decide between. The heifers are gone.

Horns is my wild card. Horns + any other doubt = :wave:

Thats just my opinion. You can drive yourself crazy trying to cull.

 

[msscamp]

My thinking is to base it on this year's calves. Keep the ones with the best calves that were born when i expected them to be.

One year is not difinitive. Without good records of what each animal has produced in past years, and how their offspring performed your culling decision can easily be skewed by conditions, illness, lack of nutrition, bullying by herdmates, what they were bred to if you AI, etc. - it is not all on the cow, the bull also contributes. You need to start keeping track of birth weights, weaning weights, past performance of the calves, forage conditions, vaccinations, when they were wormed, etc. That way you will know exactly what is going on in your herd, and can make an intelligent, informed decision on who to cull.

 

[mnmtranching]

My thinking is to base it on this year's calves. Keep the ones with the best calves that were born when i expected them to be.

One year is not difinitive. Without good records of what each animal has produced in past years, and how their offspring performed your culling decision can easily be skewed by conditions, illness, lack of nutrition, bullying by herdmates, what they were bred to if you AI, etc. - it is not all on the cow, the bull also contributes. You need to start keeping track of birth weights, weaning weights, past performance of the calves, forage conditions, vaccinations, when they were wormed, etc. That way you will know exactly what is going on in your herd, and can make an intelligent, informed decision on who to cull.

Sound advice. Lots of things could slow a calf and be no fault of the cow. 2 slow calves in a row, evaluate.
I think the cows condition. signs of going downhill, longer spaces between calves, not putting weight on like she once did, leg problems or re occurring lameness, eye problems, or any noticeable health problems. Take her to market while she will bring a decent kill price.

 

[GMN]

Looking for advice on culling older cattle from my herd of 25 cows.I have three or four older ones that seem to have foot problems (limping) several times a year. They seem to be ok after several weeks but come up lame again in a two to three months. Is this the start of bigger problems? Calves look fair compared to others but some starting to breed back slower.

Put them on the list, but wait until the market is better or you will lose money, cull cows now are horribly priced. I think a good thing to think of is, when you sell them, will you be able to replace them, if the answer is No, may need to think some more on culling them.

Foot issues are difficult, don't want to wait too long, limpers will bring bottom dollar, and if they fall or someday can't get up, you will get zero.

GMN

 

[edrsimms]

this is pretty simple really -- when you notice your older cows performing less --as in they are no longer weaning as heavy a calf as they once did-- it is time for them to go because a replacement in their slot would be aking you more money -- so move her
Surely anyone in the beef business maintains performance records on their cattle

 

[Brute 23]

Surely anyone in the beef business maintains performance records on their cattle

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[BC]

1. At weaning, cull open cows. You may let them flesh up a little if you have the forage resources.
2. Sell cows with problems - bad udders, feet, loss of teeth.

As I get older, desposition is becoming a bigger cull factor.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I think the cows condition. signs of going downhill, longer spaces between calves, not putting weight on like she once did, leg problems or re occurring lameness, eye problems, or any noticeable health problems. Take her to market while she will bring a decent kill price.

I have two calm aged hereford cross cows that are raising average calves and do not limp but they are very slow. They both trail the herd when it is moved and one will bawl alot. Is this an age related joint problem I need to cull for - - or just the way Hereford grandmas operate???