maybe the system is NOT rigged!!

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angus9259

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I can't help but wonder if the EPD system is rigged in favor of high selling animals out of influential herds. but then I see a bull like SAV Brand Name that sold to Genex for $135,000 as the top selling bull out of the SAV program and see how miserable his CED, CEM, and HP numbers are - and see that it looks like he's been dropped from the Genex lineup altogether, and applaud the validity of the system. Genex and SAV had a ton to lose if this bull tanked - and it appears he has - and still the EPDs are allowed to tell the story.
 
I don't know much about the system, but EPD's can and do change with the increase in accuracies. Have seen some bulls touted as calving ease early on only to watch the EPD's drop dramatically. I will say that it does cause some concern for me to see some young bulls come out with EPD's that don't really seem consistent with their pedigree, or also when an individual bull has a combination of a very high CED, and low BW along with extremely high WW, and YW. In those cases the numbers seem to change over time too, just not sure what causes them to start out so high. I have found that with the very few head that I register, the EPD's are usually very average over all, and even with genomic enhanced EPD's there isn't much change, usually if there is with mine it is in the area of CED, and BW.
 
This is why the Gelbvieh breed is doing genomic testing. To accurize the epd's and make them less subjective.
 
3waycross":2yzi49u9 said:
This is why the Gelbvieh breed is doing genomic testing. To accurize the epd's and make them less subjective.

Still though - I don't know that they are as subjective as I thought they might be. Genex and SAV and I think Champion Hill - all big name players in this grotesquely expensive bull and they couldn't "hide" the fact that he's not an easy calver (not to say that they tried or even wanted to) but it didn't happen.

Genomic testing for me is still a waaaaaaays out there to align with real world numbers.
 
angus9259":1m1yfjdr said:
3waycross":1m1yfjdr said:
This is why the Gelbvieh breed is doing genomic testing. To accurize the epd's and make them less subjective.

Still though - I don't know that they are as subjective as I thought they might be. Genex and SAV and I think Champion Hill - all big name players in this grotesquely expensive bull and they couldn't "hide" the fact that he's not an easy calver (not to say that they tried or even wanted to) but it didn't happen.

Genomic testing for me is still a waaaaaaays out there to align with real world numbers.

How's that work when real world numbers are only as good as the liar that reports them...especially in the big herds that drive the breed books.
 
3waycross":1esw69ga said:
How's that work when real world numbers are only as good as the liar that reports them...especially in the big herds that drive the breed books.

That's what I'm saying!! If they were liars and big names driving the breed books they certainly would have protected their investment in this bull. There were a TON of big herds and a top stud service involved in this bull. If they were lying it certainly would have been to their advantage to not sink his numbers like that. Instead, it has all appearances that they let the chips fall where they may and took their losses.
 
well, genomic testing at least would put northern players in the same game,.. everyone is aware that northern cattle have higher BWs due to environmental factors and there's no easier way to drop 20 lbs off the birthweight than by moving the cattle south
 
Nesikep":3qcgami8 said:
well, genomic testing at least would put northern players in the same game,.. everyone is aware that northern cattle have higher BWs due to environmental factors and there's no easier way to drop 20 lbs off the birthweight than by moving the cattle south

Another reason I love fall calving in a northern climate - but that's for a different thread :D
 
How accurate would a enhanced EPD be if the EPD was wrong to start with? If I am going to pay for DNA I will just do the Geneseek gold test.
 
Until an EPD reaches an accuracy of 80 or above it's really just not much more than a SWAG. By 80 most of the dishonesty and trying to rig them has pretty much been taken care of.
 
WalnutCrest":2yo273p2 said:
...another reason to focus your efforts on using old, retired bulls, and sons of those bulls out of proven excellent cows...
Dead on.

My concern over the system: it has been in place for 40 years. How many more decades will it take for it to work in expected transmissions of traits and EPDs from generation to generation? In a young animal without progeny, even the test station proven bulls, the EPDs merely represent the average calf of the sire and the average calf of the dam. So you never know where the young individual falls under the bell curve. The EPD system seems to lack the ability to create cattle with prepotency .
 
angus9259":34y9rkkv said:
I can't help but wonder if the EPD system is rigged in favor of high selling animals out of influential herds. but then I see a bull like SAV Brand Name that sold to Genex for $135,000 as the top selling bull out of the SAV program and see how miserable his CED, CEM, and HP numbers are - and see that it looks like he's been dropped from the Genex lineup altogether, and applaud the validity of the system. Genex and SAV had a ton to lose if this bull tanked - and it appears he has - and still the EPDs are allowed to tell the story.

EPDs absolutely do work once a bull becomes widely used and his EPD accuracy rises to a reliable level. They are definitely useful in picking between proven sires whose EPD accuracies are .8 or more for AI breeding.

The trouble is EPDs are "promoted" to be "THE GREAT DECIDER" (sorry George W. Bush!) and too many folks get the idea that you can split hairs in using them when selecting virgin bulls and replacement heifers. If anyone will just take the time to look what the standard deviation is in low accuracy EPDs and also realize that ONE THIRD OF THE TIME an animal's actual EPD values will fall OUTSIDE that significant deviation, then they might be able to put EPDs in the proper perspective and where they should be placed in their selection criteria, which should be WAY down the list, IMO.
 

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