Market trends

[Dave]

This question is probably for the more experienced contributors.
We know that prices run on about a ten year cycle.... give or take.
We know that on a annual basis the high is generally in April and the low generally in November.
When the market does take its big ten year nose dive (which we know will happen) which month does this generally occur? My recollection is that this occurs in Sept/Oct. Feeder cattle start coming to town and there turns out to be more of them than the market can handle so the price starts to drop. Then suddenly everyone tries to sell quickly before it goes down too far which puts even more calves on the market driving the price down further. I seem to remember this always occurring in the fall. Anyone have any memory or theory on the timing of the drop?
Dave

 

[Oldtimer]

This question is probably for the more experienced contributors.
We know that prices run on about a ten year cycle.... give or take.
We know that on a annual basis the high is generally in April and the low generally in November.
When the market does take its big ten year nose dive (which we know will happen) which month does this generally occur? My recollection is that this occurs in Sept/Oct. Feeder cattle start coming to town and there turns out to be more of them than the market can handle so the price starts to drop. Then suddenly everyone tries to sell quickly before it goes down too far which puts even more calves on the market driving the price down further. I seem to remember this always occurring in the fall. Anyone have any memory or theory on the timing of the drop?
Dave

Some of your Ag analysists are now saying that the price cycle no longer exists- that with more of a world trade opening the factors that have more effect are drought, disease, economy etc.-- Others are saying we are starting the downturn with the lowest prices being in 2008. I guess only time will tell which of the "experts" are right.

 

[ollie]

This question is probably for the more experienced contributors.
We know that prices run on about a ten year cycle.... give or take.
We know that on a annual basis the high is generally in April and the low generally in November.
When the market does take its big ten year nose dive (which we know will happen) which month does this generally occur? My recollection is that this occurs in Sept/Oct. Feeder cattle start coming to town and there turns out to be more of them than the market can handle so the price starts to drop. Then suddenly everyone tries to sell quickly before it goes down too far which puts even more calves on the market driving the price down further. I seem to remember this always occurring in the fall. Anyone have any memory or theory on the timing of the drop?
Dave

Some of your Ag analysists are now saying that the price cycle no longer exists- that with more of a world trade opening the factors that have more effect are drought, disease, economy etc.-- Others are saying we are starting the downturn with the lowest prices being in 2008. I guess only time will tell which of the "experts" are right.

When would the last cycle end if the low was in 95-96 as I remember?

 

[hillbilly]

Our ten year cycle has been fairly predictable since I've been at this['86]
But things are much different this time around.
Normally cattle numbers are the leading factor in the "turn".
Some of us thought the cow in washington might trigger a "turn", it didn't.
From where I stand the market should remain strong untill we reach the magic number.
The northern border being closed or open won't "turn" the market. There's just not enough numbers north of the border.
Japan closing its markets to us couldn't "turn" the market.

Basicly no one in the world eats as much BEEF as americans.
Especially now with Atkins and all, it's whats for dinner!

Hillbilly

 

[TheBullLady]

I've always believed in the "cycle" price concept.. and '96 would have been the down cycle. I just can't imagine prices staying this good through 2008. I think something will trigger a down trend. I think too many producers are retaining heifers, which will come back to haunt them! I remember 95-96!

Just my opinion, of course.

 

[ollie]

I agree Hillbilly. The only exception to what you have stated is the successful large terrorist attack. That could turn several markets.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Our ten year cycle has been fairly predictable since I've been at this['86]
Especially now with Atkins and all, it's whats for dinner!

Hillbilly

I basically agree Atkins has cause some shinning times, here is I disagree with some of the other posters, doesn't have near as much to do with what we haul to the salebarn. The market is controlled by guys in suits that have no idea what a cow looks like.

 

[ollie]

Our ten year cycle has been fairly predictable since I've been at this['86]
Especially now with Atkins and all, it's whats for dinner!

Hillbilly

I basically agree Atkins has cause some shinning times, here is I disagree with some of the other posters, doesn't have near as much to do with what we haul to the salebarn. The market is controlled by guys in suits that have no idea what a cow looks like.

I disagree Caustic. If we woke up tomorrow and shot ten percent of our cows, The board couldn't hold the price down. I think it is simple supply and demand.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Our ten year cycle has been fairly predictable since I've been at this['86]
Especially now with Atkins and all, it's whats for dinner!

Hillbilly

I basically agree Atkins has cause some shinning times, here is I disagree with some of the other posters, doesn't have near as much to do with what we haul to the salebarn. The market is controlled by guys in suits that have no idea what a cow looks like.

I disagree Caustic. If we woke up tomorrow and shot ten percent of our cows, The board couldn't hold the price down. I think it is simple supply and demand.

Ollie the guys in the suits would just import more, it's about the commodities markets and trading and it is done worldwide. We don't have near as much control of our little backyard as we would like to think. OMG do you have any idea how many countries import beef to the good ole USA. Now I would agree with you if we were smart enough to enact COOL we would benifit from the patriotic American. Americans are patriotic to a point. When imported beef gets cheap enough they will drop us like a hot potatoe. If Americans truely wanted American products we would just see Ford GMC or Dodge's on the road.l

 

[Texan]

We don't have near as much control of our little backyard as we would like to think.

Then how do you explain our ability to keep beef prices up after the Washington cow when our borders were closed to exports and the Merc was basically in a free-fall with expanded limits and no takers at any price? Sure the cutouts suffered, but it seems to me that the American consumer ate our way out of a helluva mess. Don't you consider that a little bit of control over "our little backyard?"

 

[Caustic Burno]

We don't have near as much control of our little backyard as we would like to think.

Then how do you explain our ability to keep beef prices up after the Washington cow when our borders were closed to exports and the Merc was basically in a free-fall with expanded limits and no takers at any price? Sure the cutouts suffered, but it seems to me that the American consumer ate our way out of a helluva mess. Don't you consider that a little bit of control over "our little backyard?"

The northern border was closed, Mexico to the south was open and running wide open. Them Zimbabwe(Africa) steaks never quit selling.

 

[Texan]

.......when our borders were closed to exports.......

The northern border was closed, Mexico to the south was open and running wide open. Them Zimbabwe(Africa) steaks never quit selling.

You don't listen too good, do you? I fixed it up for you in the quote here so that maybe it would be easier for you to understand. I said "when our borders were closed to exports." I don't know of a border that remained open to our exports following the Washington cow.

 

[Caustic Burno]

.......when our borders were closed to exports.......

The northern border was closed, Mexico to the south was open and running wide open. Them Zimbabwe(Africa) steaks never quit selling.

You don't listen too good, do you? I fixed it up for you in the quote here so that maybe it would be easier for you to understand. I said "when our borders were closed to exports." I don't know of a border that remained open to our exports following the Washington cow.

So we were closed to exports apparently you are unware that we import everyday, we can't meet demand now, so you think thats keeping prices up and you have control not hardly. Zimbabwe(Africa) steaks tasting pretty good to the American consumer.

 

[Texan]

....we can't meet demand now, so you think thats keeping prices up and you have control not hardly.

That's the point Ollie and I are trying to make with you, Bruno. The demand for our product is what is keeping beef prices up, in spite of imported supplies. That is something that the Merc traders can't control. I agree with you, though, that they have too much influence on our markets.

Zimbabwe(Africa) steaks tasting pretty good to the American consumer.

You need to check your facts. I was under the impression that we don't import any beef or by-products from Zimbabwe because of FMD. And I'd bet you money that we don't get any steaks! One of us doesn't know what we're talking about. Why don't you post something to prove that its me? That way I can apologize to you and we can go on to new business.

 

[Caustic Burno]

....we can't meet demand now, so you think thats keeping prices up and you have control not hardly.

That's the point Ollie and I are trying to make with you, Bruno. The demand for our product is what is keeping beef prices up, in spite of imported supplies. That is something that the Merc traders can't control. I agree with you, though, that they have too much influence on our markets.

Zimbabwe(Africa) steaks tasting pretty good to the American consumer.

You need to check your facts. I was under the impression that we don't import any beef or by-products from Zimbabwe because of FMD. And I'd bet you money that we don't get any steaks! One of us doesn't know what we're talking about. Why don't you post something to prove that its me? That way I can apologize to you and we can go on to new business.

Read This and enjoy that steak from overseas (Zambia) I stand corrected.

http://cnas.tamu.edu/publications/MCOOLBeef.pdf

 

[Caustic Burno]

Texan

Finally an interesting discussion. Do you men and ladies think that the reason you don't see voluntary Product of the USA on the package is the packers are afraid of exposing the things old timer talked about? Secondly will branded beef eventually be the answer to the problem.

Heres a post I stole off ranchers.net that goes a long way into explaining the problem with the packers and retailers...... and this practice will just get larger as the major meat suppliers like Tyson and Cargill expand their operations into other areas of the world like the expansions going on in Australia and Brazil-- How cheap do you think they can raise beef for in Brazil?

How many on this site knew we import meat from Namibia, Nigeria, or Zambia?----------------------------- Makes me glad I butcher my own beef and seldom eat out--

This package may contain products from: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cote d'Ivoire, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Federal Republic of Germany, Finland, Honduras, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iceland, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Macedonian, Mali, Mexico, Morocco, Namibia, Netherlands, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Venezuela, Zambia.

As you are looking through the meat case for supper and pick up the above package of meat and read the label, what would cross your mind? The next package is US BEEF, born, raised and harvested. Since you are a good shopper and looking for the best value which package would go in your cart?

According to the US Census Bureau on Foreign Trade from January 1, 2004 until July 31, 2004 the above countries provided meat imported into the US, by establishments that slaughter and prepare meats. If you were one of these establishments, would you volunteer information on the origin of the meat in the products you produce?

The big processors would like us to believe it is too expensive to put the country of origin on the label. I think the truth would be processors are afraid the consumer might not buy the geography lesson on the label at any price. The US cattle ranchers and the American consumers need Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (COOL).

I think we need COOL. Now with that I do not believe the government can introduce a cost effective method. I am not willing to shave cents per pound at the salebarn to pay for a system. I do not believe you can get a workable sytem in to play with politicians and political groups like NCBA and R-calf involved.

 

[hillbilly]

The high end of BEEF is American, Thats the beef I want to sell.
Sure there are alot of lower end products that imports and old dairy cows
can fill....Thats fine.
And I know there are restraunts chains that sell Ausi beef [a little dry] thats OK too.
"Taist", everybody has their own.
I eat my BEEF cooked medium rare, I think quality shows more, the less
you cook the BEEF. More and more Americans are becomming steak, taist experts. The more discriminating there taists become, the better for US producers that grow quality cattle.

Hillbilly

 

[ollie]

I don't know but I would guess the reason we import beef form these countries is two fold. One I think it is cheaper for can goods companies to process and package their product in third world countries. I rode a plane with a exec. from Campbell soup . I was coming from Denver and smelled like it so we got to discussing beef and he touched on some of their reasoning for having canning facilities in South America.
Second I would assume in the context of international trade negotiations we have to make trade concessions in certain areas. I believe this is the area where COOL, voluntary or otherwise would benefit U.S. producers the most.

 

[Caustic Burno]

The high end of BEEF is American, Thats the beef I want to sell.
Sure there are alot of lower end products that imports and old dairy cows
can fill....Thats fine.
And I know there are restraunts chains that sell Ausi beef [a little dry] thats OK too.
"Taist", everybody has their own.
I eat my BEEF cooked medium rare, I think quality shows more, the less
you cook the BEEF. More and more Americans are becomming steak, taist experts. The more discriminating there taists become, the better for US producers that grow quality cattle.

Hillbilly

Argentina, Australia are not importing low end products only, they are competiting on the high end as well. These are not the only two.

 

[hillbilly]

The high end of BEEF is American, Thats the beef I want to sell.
Sure there are alot of lower end products that imports and old dairy cows
can fill....Thats fine.
And I know there are restraunts chains that sell Ausi beef [a little dry] thats OK too.
"Taist", everybody has their own.
I eat my BEEF cooked medium rare, I think quality shows more, the less
you cook the BEEF. More and more Americans are becomming steak, taist experts. The more discriminating there taists become, the better for US producers that grow quality cattle.

Hillbilly

Argentina, Australia are not importing low end products only, they are competiting on the high end as well. These are not the only two.

Argentina and Australia are the two that we import the most from.
They both send us "eared cattle" [sorry for opening this can of worms]
I belive we import beef that winds up in hungry man dinners and
salsberry steak, frozen dinners and campbells soup and every other processed beef product that is frozen or canned and smothered in gravey.
They don't sell us fresh cuts that are at the meat counter.[high end]
We want the best restraunts & meat markets selling our products, its OK
if swanson imports beef as long as Americans insist on great taisting steaks.

Hillbilly