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Managing for '09" from the Hereford World

Limomike

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According to Jim Robb (director of the Livestock Marketing Information Center) he believes the volatility seen in agricultural markets will continue. "If you sell at the same time every year, that mindset may need to change. The marketplace today is volatile, so you need to have an array of optoins for when you sell"
He says for instance more calves will be held in 2008 to be sold in 2009 than have been held back for many years. As a result of these changes, he anticipates prices in 09 will be weak during the 1st quarter, better during the 2nd quarter, weakest during the 3rd quarter, and rally in the fourth quarter.
He believes that prices for 500-600 lb calves will remain lower due to corn prices; and conversely prices for 700-800 weight feeders should be trending steady to upward through the year end. This is resulting from the need to be on corn for fewer days.
I dont know about the rest of you folks, but we are already seeing it that way around here for the most part. Weaned, vaccinated 700-800 lb steers are bringing a really good price.
 

bigbull338

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i think in 2009 your going to see people shifting from selling stocker calves to selling feeder calves.you just cant make it work selling a 500lb calf.knowing that they dock them because of their weight.esp since they are wanting 750 to 900lb calves going in the feedlots.thus cutting the # of days on feed.
 

Aaron

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bigbull338":wj2mkqwz said:
i think in 2009 your going to see people shifting from selling stocker calves to selling feeder calves.you just cant make it work selling a 500lb calf.knowing that they dock them because of their weight.esp since they are wanting 750 to 900lb calves going in the feedlots.thus cutting the # of days on feed.

I think your going to continue to see a exodus of people out of the industry. There are a lot of people, who, if they can't break even on selling calves, don't want to be in the industry. Backgrounding calves to yearling is surprisingly too much work for some people.

This spring, we are going to cull hard on our fall herd and clean it up. Last fall we cleaned up the spring herd. Hoping that the influx of cash from selling the fall cull cows this spring will allow us to keep some of our yearlings through the summer and sell in the early fall when prices are better and the weights heavier.

I know of a local fella (in his 80's now) that made a good living with cattle until he quit in the early 90's (paid for everything and made a good sized profit). He ran about a lot of head (it was in the hundreds) with his two sons and nothing left the premises until it was at least 2 years old. We might have to start thinking in those terms again. :cowboy:
 

Alberta farmer

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What I saw this year in late summer early fall was the buyers wanted 900 plus feeder steers. Get them below 900 and you took a real beating.
When the calf run started they would pay almost nothing for little calves...especially hard on heifers.
The price picked up on calves in December(probably the tax money coming to town) but was still pretty dismal.
We haven't sold any calves for four years now. If you can tough a calf through the winter and put him out on grass you can make some money although you have to really watch the nickels and dimes.
We changed over four years ago because I got sick of winter calving and also had a very good year in the oil business, so was able to forego the income for one year. I'll never go back.
 

Brute 23

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Been saying that for a while now.

That... I pull my calves off on X-date and sell... mind set ain't gonna work any more. You need a place to put them and wait for the right time. Also, you need to be debt free so you can decide when you want to sell... not the people who have your loans.
 

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