Is there profit in cheap short bred cows?

[Stocker Steve]

Some comments posted recently that we should be buying "cheap" bred cows, :banana: but is there currently a profit in it?

Ran some estimated numbers on buying short bred $700 cows weaning modest calves. My direct costs did not show a positive gross margin (I did charge for grass and hay and such) unless they stayed around to wean multiple calves, and/or there was a big bounce in cull prices. Da boys are most seem interested in big cows at the sales barn, so they must be betting on the bounce, or willing to just cover direct costs...

What do your profitable trades look like? :cowboy:

 

[kenny thomas]

Here short bred will bring kill price. Maybe 400-500 dollars. I think there is profit in just holding them till slaughter price goes up.

 

[True Grit Farms]

I feel like there's money to be made in a few different ways. I don't intentionally buy short bred cows but $700 is cheap for a good young to middle aged thin bred cow. I usually keep back about 20 to 30% of the cows I buy as replacements, and sell most of my heifers. The way we manage our property I can easily carry a cow and her calf for $200 per year so that makes a difference.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Here short bred will bring kill price. Maybe 400-500 dollars. I think there is profit in just holding them till slaughter price goes up.

Higher prices here. They were U$S 675 last week.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I usually keep back about 20 to 30% of the cows I buy as replacements, and sell most of my heifers. The way we manage our property I can easily carry a cow and her calf for $200 per year so that makes a difference.

Cann't do that in the land of the artic vortex, unnless you cross with muck ox.

 

[Dave]

There is a stock cow sale here in about two weeks. If history repeats itself there will be 1500-2000 cows. By the second half of the sale they will be killing 90% of them. Not because they are bad cows. Just that the people wanting stock cows will be full up. If a person can't pick 40-50 decent cows out of 700 they should just stay home. And you will buy those cows for one bid over today's kill price.
Cow kill prices aren't going any lower IMO. I read where the dairy kill for the month of October was 17% over last year. That won't continue clear to next year. One of my theories on short term cows is to wean calves by way of shipping the cows about September 1. I get rid of those cows before the annual slip in the cow market.

 

[Stocker Steve]

One of my theories on short term cows is to wean calves by way of shipping the cows about September 1. I get rid of those cows before the annual slip in the cow market.

A really good approach to help balance out cool season pasture production!

I am thinking about Management Intensive Culling for 2019 - - :cowboy:
sell yearlings in August
sell ugly cull cows in September
sell pretty replacements & cull cows in November

I did sell a few this August and September, but not nearly enough in hindsight.

 

[Dave]

One of my theories on short term cows is to wean calves by way of shipping the cows about September 1. I get rid of those cows before the annual slip in the cow market.

Good approach as long as they are not June calvers.
Really helps balance out the seasonal pasture production!

I don't buy June calving cows. Toppenish calls their breds as calving in the window, which is February 1 to April 15. They have a real good vet. I figure buying in early December and selling September 1 that I am only feeding the cow for 9 months. Of course the timing will vary depending on location.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Poor vets here, or the auctioneer stretches the truth, or both. Often off by 2 to 3 months.
I bought a group of 3 May calvers in March. Two calved in early April, n third one calved in mid July. Guess they averaged out. ;-)
Neighbor bought a group of April/May calvers. Have several that calved in January. :help: Kind of a problem in the artic vortex.

Bred cow prices here usually go up in February. So you could buy in January and then sell in September, for an 8 month turn, and lots of fall hunting. :banana: I love it when a plan comes together!

 

[Allenw]

Poor vets here, or the auctioneer stretches the truth, or both. Often off by 2 to 3 months.
I bought a group of 3 May calvers in March. Two calved in early April, n third one calved in mid July. Guess they averaged out. ;-)
Neighbor bought a group of April/May calvers. Have several that calved in January. :help: Kind of a problem in the artic vortex.

Bred cow prices here usually go up in February. So you could buy in January and then sell in September, for an 8 month turn, and lots of fall hunting. :banana: I love it when a plan comes together!

Or just flip them when they go up in February or later in the spring.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Good point.
Spring bred market is spotty here, but that creates opportunities.
Best per head turn I have seen is buying late winter short breds (not June/July calvers), and then selling pairs after the snow melts.

 

[1982vett]

Currently it didn't work all that well for the one and dones. Fat cow market has been sliding over a year. Maybe made a few bucks on the total pair but not enough to speak of. IMO your better off trying it this fall for sure and the younger cattle are the ones to try it with but buy with the ability to hold if the market doesn't turn in th spring. I did notice a feeder calf buyer picking some up some cows last week that fill the bill for weight gain so that looked positive. Most everything shortbread and showing age has been been going to slaughter like they did in 2011 and 2012.... maybe that is another indicator.