Is the drought shrinking the nations herd yet and if so to what extent?

[Stocker Steve]

I have a lot of carry over hay, and purchased a couple semi loads of net wrapped hay with winter, and sold some oversized cows - - so I have I will have a years worth of hay on site this spring. About half of this is shedded. I paid U$S 93 per ton delivered for 110 to 120 RFQ "heifer hay".

 

[Stocker Steve]

If Dave keeps them all alive

There is some risk in buying the ones that the kill buyers don't want. I made the mistake of asking a buyer to get a load of feeding cows one fall. He was very proud of the "deals" he got, but a third of them had trouble getting out of the pot...

 

[Muletrack]

A western grazing guru explained to me that average does not occur often there - - they have wet cycles and dry cycles which math can use for calculating an average, but you should not use it for planning.

Well, six inches is a pretty decent margin for error. We have seen dry years, but never a rainless year. It could happen, but it would be very rare. Good plan to never overstock, and good plan to keep over some hay. Dancing with drought is should be an exercise in flexibility, not futility. One thing we do know -- drought is normal.

 

[mncowboy]

My cattle cycle predictions are:
- Da boys who don't trust bitcoin will spend the 2021 stimulus checks on their welfare cows
- Grains will rally on a May/June weather scare
- They will burn more rainforest in SA and Africa to put it into production, Roy was wrong.
- Hay prices will go up
- Cow population will finally decline in 2022 and Dave will clean up with his one and dones

Looking pretty accurate on the grain price rally, Old crop corn broke $7 over night before settling just below.

 

[mncowboy]

My cattle cycle predictions are:
- Da boys who don't trust bitcoin will spend the 2021 stimulus checks on their welfare cows
- Grains will rally on a May/June weather scare
- They will burn more rainforest in SA and Africa to put it into production, Roy was wrong.
- Hay prices will go up
- Cow population will finally decline in 2022 and Dave will clean up with his one and dones

Looking spot on at least with the grain rally, old crop corn broke $7 overnight. Feeders have taken a beating over the past 7-10 days. With the price of corn its surprising they haven't taken it worse.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Seeing a few hay fields being mold boarded.

Feedlots are in a poor spot - - fat numbers steady and grain prices up.

I think cow cull will be up this fall.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Looking spot on at least with the grain rally, old crop corn broke $7 overnight. Feeders have taken a beating over the past 7-10 days. With the price of corn its surprising they hight is even better.

My hindsight is even better.

 

[Brute 23]

Trying to outguess the market, and then vary your numbers because of that guess is like trying to push a wet noodle. The harder you try, the more twists it takes. Seems to me that cattle are a long term thing... you're either in it, or not. You might find that C/c is better for your "context", or you might find that backgrounding or running a feedlot is more for your context........ but either way, it generally won't work if you're only going to try to "be in 'em" and have animals around "when the price is high".

That depends if you want to be smart or sound smart.