Is a Break in the Cattle Market Coming Soon?

[A.J.]

Looking at the USDA report, calves at our local market took a pretty good hit Saturday.

 

[kenny thomas]

Took a little hit Friday our stockyards are telling us . Of course we are hauling our calves this week .

I may be giving you very bad advice but if you can wait 2 or 3 weeks i think the price will rebound.

 

[coachg]

I may be giving you very bad advice but if you can wait 2 or 3 weeks i think the price will rebound.

Thanks Kenny , our sale barn man says it's not as bad as everyone is saying. He has over a 100 preconditioned calves to sell tomorrow counting ours . He has talked to several buyers and says we won't be sorry ? we can only hope . Low # of calves available in our area .

 

[kenny thomas]

Thanks Kenny , our sale barn man says it's not as bad as everyone is saying. He has over a 100 preconditioned calves to sell tomorrow counting ours . He has talked to several buyers and says we won't be sorry ? we can only hope . Low # of calves available in our area .

The preconditioned calves are not taking a hit like the unweaned calves. The numbers seem to be down over most of the east. Let us know how you do.

 

[Dave]

LRP and hedges help stop the huge losses but do not insure a profit. If it drops fast it could get ugly for some that thought they were covered.

With the LRP when you buy a level that is what you get paid if the market drops below that point. So I would imagine that a person buy it at a level that insures a profit. I am not certain on all the details with hedging but basically how it was explained to me is you buy a position above the present futures market and one below that level. So no matter if the market goes up or down you are covered. With LRP you actually have to own the cattle. With the futures market you can just play with your money no cattle ownership required.

 

[Stonewall Joe]

with all that's going on in the market rite now only the rich people will be able to buy and sell at will, others will have to either keep and sell only the old ones and the bull calves , they will have to keep there producers to keep up there herd

that may be true but when you have one to sell it makes for a better payday

 

[greybeard]

I love a bone in chuck roast . The ''flatiron'' steak did away with that. They de-bone the chuck and remove that muscle group leaving a very different roast.

Sticker shock has a lot to do with package size.When the price starts with a 2or3 they look at pork or poultry.

Flat iron doesn't come from a conventional chuck roast, or shouldn't. It comes from a blade roast, off the shou;lder. Top blade i think they call it.

 

[Lucky]

From what I see on consumer side, there is no slowdown in demand. I see empty spaces in the beef section but it's because packages are grabbed and sold almost as soon as they hit the meat cases.

Everytime I get to thinking beef is too high and people will stop buying it I think about how high it is to eat out. It's $40-50 for a family of four to run through a drive thru and each get a #1 meal. I know the price of beef has something to do with that but think it's very little.

 

[farmerjan]

I'm with @kenny thomas ... I think it will smooth out a bit.
Plus, we have never done as well with selling anything in April. The Easter holiday used to really seem to affect things, not so much now... but last week there were not the number of buyers and I think that they are all sitting back and waiting to see what this whole tariff, stock market, crazy times... is going to do. We sell in usually March, and the prices are on the "up side"...and then will sell some/cleanout all the ones that are not going to pasture... in May.

With the markets being what they have been this last year or 2, prices are good and it doesn't seem to matter when they get sold.

We have about 15-20 steers and heifers total left to sell. They will probably go the last week of April or the first week of May. Some smaller stuff, and odd ball ones. Those kind we sell at a market where there are alot of people with "backyard farms" and they will buy the odd colors and the ones that don't bring the top dollars, so they have something to eat grass and maybe make a beef for their own freezers. They often will pay near top prices because they only want a few so smaller groups and singles do not seem to get "dinged" very much.

 

[mwj]

Flat iron doesn't come from a conventional chuck roast, or shouldn't. It comes from a blade roast, off the shou;lder. Top blade i think they call it.

I agree on the location but it changes the way the packers break down the chuck as a whole. If you can find a locally cut beef you can still find the good roasts. The box beef suppliers are a whole different deal that change processes based on very small profit changes over many tons of product.

I like oxtail and tongue but it will cause you to swoon if you price it in the store. A product with minimal processing but outside of the normal supply chain. I guess it is to give us old folks something to ponder.

 

[greybeard]

My wife likes beef tongue. Me, not so much. I was going to buy some for her a couple months back and decided not to after i saw the price. T'was cheaper for me to buy ribeye steak so I did.

 

[Brute 23]

I don't think the cattle market is as high as people think and I really don't see it coming down much. The scale just slid up and people need to adjust their thinking. They also need to quit saying we have record high prices. We finally caught back up to expenses from 10 years ago and if you give people a reason they will raise prices on us.

 

[farmerjan]

I don't think the cattle market is as high as people think and I really don't see it coming down much. The scale just slid up and people need to adjust their thinking. They also need to quit saying we have record high prices. We finally caught back up to expenses from 10 years ago and if you give people a reason they will raise prices on us.

Exactly right... we are getting paid a decent fair price... compare it to something like a new truck.... or any new equipment... (and none of them can reproduce themselves year after year.)

We, as farmers and ranchers, have had to continually tighten our belts and make do with what the market "gives us".... we can't figure what it costs us to "produce'' our product, and then add in a percentage for "profit", and have room for negotiating.... and then sell it...

These are record high prices, but we have made do with sub standard prices for many years. They are not record prices if you figure in all it takes to get there.

For round figures.......At today's prices... if you figure that it costs $900/yr to keep the cow... everything figured in.... and the calf brings $1800... that is $900 "profit".... it will take 50 calves to just pay you a salary of $45,000 a year... Not the highest wages around.... then you take out all your own expenses to live and that doesn't go very far really.... Not when most any job nowadays can make you $40-50,000 with regular hours and then no headaches like a farm having you on call 24/7.....

 

[Dave]

It has been a lot of years since I last saw beef tongue, heart, liver, or oxtail at the grocery store.