In 5 years

[J]

what will the cattle industry be like?

More black cattle?

A new "best breed"?

Small producers getting out?

More hobbiest?

Just kind of slow today so I thouhgt I'd get some opinions on where we're heading in the near future.

All opinions, :shock: ok, maybe most opinions, :lol: are welcome....nah just kiddin. ;-)

 

[john250]

what will the cattle industry be like?

More black cattle?

A new "best breed"?

Small producers getting out?

More hobbiest?

Just kind of slow today so I thouhgt I'd get some opinions on where we're heading in the near future.

All opinions, :shock: ok, maybe most opinions, :lol: are welcome....nah just kiddin. ;-)

Market access is my answer. We're going to see major changes in the way we sell cattle. How that will shake out is still in play, I think. I don't see us becoming "chickenized", but I think cow-calf men (including women) will know the address of the restaurant that serves the steak and the customer will know where you grew up and how many kids you have.

It looks like ID is going to be voluntary, but it will be hard to sell cattle that aren't ID'd. I prefer ID, I think it is necessary to sell to the higher dollar market.
If you sell face to face, you can avoid actual ID tags but the customer gets the same info. Niche there.
The squeeze is on for those who don't manage like the devil is behind them. But that isn't really a change. It's always been hard to make a $ doing this.
If you are a cow calf producer for profit I think you will be allied with some association which verifies your product. 5-10 yrs. for that to happen?

 

[cmjust0]

I don't see us becoming "chickenized", but I think cow-calf men (including women) will know the address of the restaurant that serves the steak and the customer will know where you grew up and how many kids you have.

I disagree.. Prepackaged beef sales are increasing, which means that foreign beef sales are increasing without people knowing it. People buy Wal-Mart beef every day but never stop and think "Hey, wait a minute.. They don't have a butcher shop here!?!?! Where'd this come from???" Wal-Mart saves money by selling prepackaged beef, and they turn that savings into reduced consumer prices and increased profit. It won't be long before other retailers fire their butchers and start selling prepackaged beef -- just like is done with chicken now.. Then we'll be even further away from the 'Rockwellian' scenario laid out above..

I don't like it one bit, but I do think that's how it's going to go down.

As far as source verified goes, the big push for that -- as I understood it -- was that it would be a draw for the Asian consumer.. I think a lot of people had been led to believe that Japan was the holy grail of beef markets, and that we'd all be saved if we were allowed to ship to Japan again.

Not so, apparently.

Last I read, the Japanese were turning their noses up at American beef, because they've been made to fear it. They'd rather have Australian beef since it's cheaper than Japanese beef, and since the Aussies have never had a case of Mad Cow.

Maybe mad cow will be a moot point in five years, though..

 

[john250]

I don't see us becoming "chickenized", but I think cow-calf men (including women) will know the address of the restaurant that serves the steak and the customer will know where you grew up and how many kids you have.

I disagree.. Prepackaged beef sales are increasing, which means that foreign beef sales are increasing without people knowing it. People buy Wal-Mart beef every day but never stop and think "Hey, wait a minute.. They don't have a butcher shop here!?!?! Where'd this come from???" Wal-Mart saves money by selling prepackaged beef, and they turn that savings into reduced consumer prices and increased profit. It won't be long before other retailers fire their butchers and start selling prepackaged beef -- just like is done with chicken now.. Then we'll be even further away from the 'Rockwellian' scenario laid out above..

I don't like it one bit, but I do think that's how it's going to go down.

As far as source verified goes, the big push for that -- as I understood it -- was that it would be a draw for the Asian consumer.. I think a lot of people had been led to believe that Japan was the holy grail of beef markets, and that we'd all be saved if we were allowed to ship to Japan again.

Not so, apparently.

Last I read, the Japanese were turning their noses up at American beef, because they've been made to fear it. They'd rather have Australian beef since it's cheaper than Japanese beef, and since the Aussies have never had a case of Mad Cow.

Maybe mad cow will be a moot point in five years, though..

When I said "chickenized" I meant a system where the bird is owned beginning to end by one entity. I don't see that happening to cattle in the next 5 yr.

Wal Mart sells a commodity product. But I see a lobster tank in my Midwst Wal Mart and that is a pretty upscale meal around here. Someone must be buying them. So yeah, Wal Mart will sell foreign beef or whatever they can get cheap. If they want to offer a steak to the lobster buyer, they need to come to North American producers of grain fed beef. And the consumer increasingly wants to know what they are eating.

 

[Herefordcross]

I think that cattle numbers per ranch will decrease.

 

[Wewild]

Too small of a time frame for big change. Down the road people will get exactly what they want ... or then maybe what they think their getting when they cut into it.

Kinda like today.

 

[SPRINGER FARMS MURRAY GRE]

I don't see us becoming "chickenized", but I think cow-calf men (including women) will know the address of the restaurant that serves the steak and the customer will know where you grew up and how many kids you have.

I disagree.. Prepackaged beef sales are increasing, which means that foreign beef sales are increasing without people knowing it. People buy Wal-Mart beef every day but never stop and think "Hey, wait a minute.. They don't have a butcher shop here!?!?! Where'd this come from???" Wal-Mart saves money by selling prepackaged beef, and they turn that savings into reduced consumer prices and increased profit. It won't be long before other retailers fire their butchers and start selling prepackaged beef -- just like is done with chicken now.. Then we'll be even further away from the 'Rockwellian' scenario laid out above..

I don't like it one bit, but I do think that's how it's going to go down.

As far as source verified goes, the big push for that -- as I understood it -- was that it would be a draw for the Asian consumer.. I think a lot of people had been led to believe that Japan was the holy grail of beef markets, and that we'd all be saved if we were allowed to ship to Japan again.

Not so, apparently.

Last I read, the Japanese were turning their noses up at American beef, because they've been made to fear it. They'd rather have Australian beef since it's cheaper than Japanese beef, and since the Aussies have never had a case of Mad Cow.

Maybe mad cow will be a moot point in five years, though..

I just read that the first shipment to Japan (5 metric tons) sold out in one day. Australia has always shipped them more beef (angus / murray grey). That doesn't sound to me like they are shying away from American Beef!

 

[backhoeboogie]

I think there will be a lot more meat being bought by customers on the hoof, from folks they know and trust, and sent to local processing. Customer saves a few nickels and gets better beef.

 

[Herefordcross]

THat's what I was thinking backhoe, you may have to lower you numbers but, what you have will still be prifitable.

 

[Herefordcross]

Maybe it will rain more regularly.?? :roll:

 

[Susie David]

This year we have seen the trend toward farm grown beef increase in our market. When a article in newsweek came out in June about grass fed beef that was the first question that we were asked at the framer's market...how was the animal raised?
Wall Mart and the major chains sell to the folks that do not make informed decisions or are limited by fincanical constraints when they but beef. The more affluient and educated consumer has more money available to buy the better qaulity beef directly from the producer...us.
The trend toward "natural" and grass fed beef will increase at a dramatic rate, in fact we are gearing up our operation for next year's production. Looks like retirement will have to wait for a few more years.
DMc

 

[cmjust0]

Wall Mart and the major chains sell to the folks that do not make informed decisions or are limited by fincanical constraints when they but beef.

And Wal-Mart is one of the fastest growing companies in the world..

The more affluient and educated consumer has more money available to buy the better qaulity beef directly from the producer...us.

This is absolutely true..

The trend toward "natural" and grass fed beef will increase at a dramatic rate, in fact we are gearing up our operation for next year's production. Looks like retirement will have to wait for a few more years.

Lemme first say that I hope you're right..

Now, lemme ask, how do you justify your position that demand for "natural"/grass fed beef is going to grow dramatically, when Wal-Mart's sales are already growing dramatically? What I mean is, doesn't it stand to reason that Wal-Mart's tremendous growth is a sign that the 'uninformed/tight budget' segment is growing faster than the 'affluent/educated' segment? If so, then doesn't that mean that the potential customer base for natural/grass fed beef is probably already in decline?

Bear in mind that I'm not at all saying you're wrong or anything like that -- again, I hope you're right -- I'm just trying to figure out exactly where you're coming from.. Do you believe that consumers are going to come into more discretionary money in the future, or do you believe that the tight-budget crowd will simply become more educated and be more willing to spare other purchases to buy better beef?

Perhaps the logic is that there are many affluent/educated -- but not BEEF educated -- consumers out there already which can be tapped to increase natural/grassfed sales, even as the affluent/educated segment dwindles on the whole?

Again, I'm just trying to figure out the angle..

 

[dj]

The New Yak Times 8-16-06
Wal-Mart Stores, the world's largest retailer and a bellwether for the industry, reported its first decline in quarterly income in 10 years yesterday, blaming trouble in foreign markets for the financial slip.

The chain said profit fell 26 percent in the fiscal second quarter after it pulled out of Germany, where it had struggled for years.

The results, a rare stumble for a company preoccupied with growth, demonstrated Wal-Mart's vulnerabilities abroad, where its low-cost all-in-one retailing formula has not translated into the kind of dominance it enjoys in the United States.

Perhaps more worrisome for Wal-Mart in the long term was the performance of its domestic stores, by far the largest division. Domestic sales rose by a modest 6.9 percent and profit margins dropped slightly, which the company attributed to higher costs for fuel, back-to-school marketing and store renovation.

"We are, quite honestly, disappointed in the sales performance of Wal-Mart U.S.," the chief executive, H. Lee Scott Jr., said in a prerecorded conference call for investors.
______________________________________________

The Japan Times 8-27-06

Barbecue chain to serve U.S. beef
The Associated Press
A restaurant chain plans to resume serving U.S. beef at dozens of its branches nationwide, company officials said Saturday.

Zenshoku, based in Osaka Prefecture, plans to offer U.S. beef at the company's 57 Korean barbecue restaurants across Japan soon, the company said.

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported earlier that the chain plans to introduce American beef as early as Tuesday, possibly becoming the first chain to do so since the government eased an import ban last month.

Zenshoku spokeswoman Tae Okuda said no date has been set yet.

The company's president and officials visited two food processing plants in California and Colorado earlier this month and confirmed they meet safety standards to export beef to Japan, Okuda said.

The chain plans to show a videotape of the inspection trip at its outlets to put customers at ease over whether U.S. beef is safe to consume, she said.

"Our beef comes only from processing plants which we found treat beef appropriately and are considered safe," the company statement said.

"We think that we should be able to have a choice," Okuda said. "Compared with imported beef from other countries, American beef is more suitable for Korean barbecue as the meat is juicy."

Japan first banned U.S. beef in 2003 over mad cow disease concerns. That year, the bilateral beef trade was valued at $ 1.4 billion.