How far will the calf market fall?

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All I hear is that prices are going to be even better this year than last. Seems to me that prices are not always real high in January. I remember two years ago talking to my friend at the sale and he told me to hold my calves, if I had plenty of feed and prices would get better. I held them till March and sure enough they were up good. I have a few that will be ready the end of February or first of March, so hope prices pick up by then.
 
I think that's quite regional.. When grass starts growing and people want lawnmowers, the price picks up again.. I'd assume that's much earlier down south than here... It's about April around here
 
Williamsv":out0acs5 said:
All I hear is that prices are going to be even better this year than last. Seems to me that prices are not always real high in January. I remember two years ago talking to my friend at the sale and he told me to hold my calves, if I had plenty of feed and prices would get better. I held them till March and sure enough they were up good. I have a few that will be ready the end of February or first of March, so hope prices pick up by then.
The numbers are a little dated, but maybe the pattern holds. This is for Arkansas... and calves less than 500#....

ArkCattle2000thru2010-1.jpg
 
I am holding some calves now till probably 2nd week of march and see what happens. I don't see any major drops in prices as mentioned prices typically go up in spring.. If there is a drought then I can see the prices dropping pretty quick in the local market that is suffering from the drought.
 
dieselbeef":3nifswjq said:
i think the exporting of beef has picked up not the import. more countries accepting outside beef
When our dollar was of less value it was good for exports and bad for imports. That has reversed and it costs more for other countries to buy our beef with the current dollar exchange.
Imports are down from some countries, like Mexico. This was because of COOL and not the currency exchange.
Then you have Chipolte who has announced they do not agree with the way American beef is raised and have decided to import their beef from Australia. The Australian drought and them slashing prices had more to do with that. Australian beef imports are up 200%.

If other countries can afford our beef then exports go up. If American companies can buy cheaper by importing then imports go up.
If the American consumer buys beef from the retail stores then demand goes up.

Even countries with a ban on American beef still buy American. It is just routed through other countries. Vietnam was a broker for a long time.
 
Tim/South hit the nail on the head our stronger dollar is bad news for us cattle producers. Currency prices, the relative value of each country's monetary unit to the trade partner's currency, can be as important as the absolute value of the commodity. The dollar is at a 14 year high relative to our beef trading partners and that is not good for our domestic beef market. Imports are cheaper and exports for expensive for foreign beef purchasers.
 
Navasota Tex Jan 17 2015--1292 hd.
Trend of Market: $ 5-- $ 8 Lower
WEIGHT:........ STEERS:.............................. HEIFERS:
150-300 lbs........ 2.25—4.40.......................... 1.95—4.10
300-400 lbs........ 2.25—4.15 ..........................1.85—3.30
400-500 lbs.........1.85—3.175......................... 1.85—2.95
500-600 lbs.........1.75 –2.925..........................1.75—2.675
600-700 lbs.........1.70—2.625..........................1.70—2.425

Slaughter Bulls: 1.00—1.37
Slaughter Cows: .85—1.10
Pairs $ 1800--$ 2650
Stocker Cows: $ 1300 - $ 2475

MR0120155-744x1024.jpg
 
http://aberdeenlivestock.com/market.aspx

Market Report for
Monday, January 19, 2015

Cattle: 5,058 head
Feeder Cattle sold lower on good demand.
Weigh-Up Cows sold lower.
Cows sold : $104.00 to $113.00
Fed Cows & High Yielding Cows sold Mainly: $115.00 to $128.00
Bulls sold Mainly: $131.00 to $142.00

Steers: Lbs. Per/CWT
Lake City Blk strs 454 $315.00
Oakes Blk strs 410 305.00
Hankinson Blk strs 410 304.00
Lake City Blk strs 551 301.00
Raymond Mix strs 466 301.00
Barnesville Blk strs 545 300.00
Clark Blk strs 510 295.00
Leola Blk strs 562 292.00
Clark Blk strs 570 289.00
Roscoe Blk strs 545 288.50
Corona Blk strs 568 288.00
Wetonka Blk strs 512 288.00
Waubay Blk strs 522 286.00
Chelsea Blk strs 563 278.00
Hankinson Blk strs 598 278.00
Wilmot Blk strs 564 272.00
Waubay Blks trs 585 270.50
Webster Blk strs 597 268.00
Waubay Blk strs 604 268.00
Corona Blk strs 636 262.00
Oakes Blk strs 634 262.00
Wilmot Blk strs 590 260.00
Wilmot Blk strs 604 260.00
Mellette Blk strs 607 260.00
Roscoe Blk strs 654 258.00
Mina Mix strs 616 257.00
Wetonka MIx strs 585 254.00
Kief Mix strs 630 254.00
Watertown Char strs 600 252.00
Hankinson Blk strs 632 252.00
Faulkton Blk strs 635 250.00
Hankinson Blk strs 649 245.00
Webster Blk strs 690 240.00
Sabin Blk strs 686 238.50
Groton Blk strs 668 238.00
Corona Blk strs 693 237.50
Wilmot Blk strs 712 237.00
Chelsea Blk strs 689 237.00
Barnesville Blk strs 687 236.00
Englevale Blk strs 689 235.00
Wilmot Blk strs 723 234.50
Wilmot Blk strs 728 234.50
Wyndmere Blk strs 725 234.00
Wyndmere Mix strs 681 232.00
Hankinson Blk strs 712 231.25
Chelsea Mix strs 701 230.50
Wetonka Mix strs 688 229.00
Kief Mix strs 721 227.50
Lake City Blk strs 741 226.50
Wilmot Mix strs 723 224.50
Mansfield Blk strs 740 223.00
Chelsea Blk strs 740 223.00
Columbia Blk strs 770 218.25
Chelsea Blk strs 783 217.75
Raymond Mix strs 755 217.00
Raymond Mix strs 760 217.00
Corona Blk strs 774 215.50
Long Lake Blk strs 783 215.25
Frederick Mix strs 747 214.50
Valley City Red strs 749 214.00
Wilmot Blk strs 818 213.75
Sandstone Blk strs 759 213.00
Wetonka Mix strs 797 211.50
Faulkton Blk strs 776 211.50
Barnesvaille Blk strs 824 210.50
FAulkton Blk strs 821 208.00
Oakes Char strs 778 207.50
Sandstone Red strs 801 207.00
Faulkton Blk strs 851 205.00
Hankinson Blk strs 796 205.00
Langford Mix strs 831 202.00
Long Lake Blk strs 862 201.75
Waubay Blk strs 855 201.50
Langford Mix strs 836 201.00
Ashley Blk strs 872 200.75
Frederick Mix strs 873 199.00
Watertown Char strs 805 198.00
Webster Blk strs 871 197.50
Faulkton Blk strs 944 197.50
Monango Red strs 804 197.00
Faulkton Blk strs 922 196.00
Wndmere Blk strs 864 196.00
Mansfield Mix strs 875 194.25
Watertown Mix strs 969 190.00
Faulkton Blk strs 1028 188.00
Milnor Red strs 927 187.50
Milnor Mix strs 1059 186.50
Heifers: Lbs. Per/CWT
Mansfield Crb hfrs 355 $345.00
Corona Blk hfrs 368 330.00
Oakes Char hfrs 355 312.50
Mansfield Red hfrs 420 293.00
Cresbard Blk hfrs 410 290.00
Lake City Blk hfrs 434 283.00
Englevale Mix hfrs 435 282.00
Clark Mix hfrs 483 271.00
Watertown Char hfrs 490 266.00
Lake City Blk hfrs 537 262.00
Groton Blk hfrs 515 261.00
Roscoe Blk hfrs 536 256.00
Raymond Blk hfrs 575 255.00
Englevale Blk hfrs 552 252.00
Chelsea Mix hfrs 534 252.00
Waubay Blk hfrs 509 252.00
Wetonka Mix hfrs 591 250.50
Clark Blk hfrs 559 250.00
Kief Blk hfrs 565 250.00
Hankinson Blk hfrs 505 248.00
Raymond Blk hfrs 531 247.00
Chelsea Bwf hfrs 651 245.50
Mansfield Mix hfrs 599 245.00
Columbia Mix hfrs 566 245.00
Webster Blk hfrs 618 244.00
Oakes Blk hfrs 568 244.00
Sandstone Red hfrs 592 241.00
Verona Red hfrs 621 241.00
FAulkton Blk hfrs 598 241.00
Waubay Blk hfrs 603 241.00
Raymond Blk hfrs 618 240.00
Aberdeen Blk hfrs 607 240.00
Mellette Red hfrs 595 235.50
Corona Blk hfrs 612 234.50
Oakes Char hfrs 630 232.50
Hinckley Red hfrs 634 232.00
Hinckley Red hfrs 615 232.00
Waubay Blk hfrs 661 228.00
Aberdeen Blk hfrs 685 228.00
Raymond Blk hfrs 691 227.50
Hankinson Blk hfrs 639 227.00
Wetonka Mix hfrs 659 225.50
Wetonka Red hfrs 689 225.50
Corona Blk hfrs 665 225.00
Columbia Blk hfrs 687 225.00
Englevale Blk hfrs 677 224.00
Sandstone Red hfrs 644 234.00
Roscoe Blk hfrs 683 224.00
Wyndmere Mix hfrs 665 220.50
Mansfield Blk hfrs 674 220.00
Mellette Blk hfrs 690 220.00
Groton Blk hfrs 672 218.50
Corona Blk hfrs 701 218.00
Long Lake Blk hfrs 670 218.00
Frederick Mix hfrs 684 215.00
Verona Red hfrs 732 215.00
Columbia Red hfrs 743 208.00
Hankinson Blk hfrs 711 204.00
Ashley Blk hfrs 717 203.00
Frederick Blk hfrs 742 203.00
Kief Mix hfrs 733 200.00
Verona Blk hfrs 731 199.00
Mansfield Mix hfrs 793 197.00
Sandstone Blk hfrs 739 197.00
Faulkton Blk hfrs 728 196.00
Faulkton Blk hfrs 875 188.50
Watertown Mix hfrs 823 188.50
Milnor Rwf hfrs 916 187.50
Faulkton Blk hfrs 851 186.25
Faulkton Blk hfrs 869 186.25
Monango Red hfrs 878 183.50
Milnor Red hfrs 870 183.00
Watertown Red hfrs 935 182.00
Faulkton Blk hfrs 865 181.50
Faulkton Blk hfrs 997 181.50
Wyndmere Char hfrs 886 181.00
 
I have been expanding since I got into cattle back in 2006. The only reason why is that I just like cattle. In 45 years of working with cattle I have seen several people get into cattle only to lose all that they have invested and in the same time the only people to make it big were the one's who had starved through for decades and had a dispersal. If you are in the cattle "business" it has been my observation that when you are losing money a true cattleman will spend the last time he can borrow from anywhere else to hang onto his prized cows. When he makes money on cattle he immediately begins spending the profits on repairing facilities, replacing equipment, of repaying the loans he had taken out.
Just what I've seen.
 
TexasBred":3p18jrwh said:
This is a report from one barn about 60 miles from here. These were steers.

400# - 500# ---------------------------------------------------------------- $270.00 $350.00 per cwt.
500# - 600# ---------------------------------------------------------------- $248.00 $309.00 per cwt.
600# - 700# ---------------------------------------------------------------- $230.00 $267.00 per cwt.

I'm wondering what your hay prices look like b/c here, 400#-500# are avg. 191.25 and topped at 325.00 (but who knows how many went that high). 500#-600# were 181.25 and topped at 234.00. 600#-700# were 174.00 and topped at 237.50. Here hay is about $180/ton alfalfa and $200/ton for grass hay. So why the lower costs of calves?
 
Sure didn't look very good today. We sold a load tele-auction today, steers weighing 850 brought $189.00. Thats .40 at least off the high last fall. Thats $340 a head difference. Gonna make a lot of difference in what the guy pays to replace them.
 
kenny thomas":1qdpjjmd said:
Sure didn't look very good today. We sold a load tele-auction today, steers weighing 850 brought $189.00. Thats .40 at least off the high last fall. Thats $340 a head difference. Gonna make a lot of difference in what the guy pays to replace them.

Sent some 850 lb steers thru the yard recently brought about 1.85. Been worth more before Christmas. I was worried abot taxes, what I lost would of paid the taxes.
 
Bestoutwest":2wt9zmv5 said:
TexasBred":2wt9zmv5 said:
This is a report from one barn about 60 miles from here. These were steers.

400# - 500# ---------------------------------------------------------------- $270.00 $350.00 per cwt.
500# - 600# ---------------------------------------------------------------- $248.00 $309.00 per cwt.
600# - 700# ---------------------------------------------------------------- $230.00 $267.00 per cwt.

I'm wondering what your hay prices look like b/c here, 400#-500# are avg. 191.25 and topped at 325.00 (but who knows how many went that high). 500#-600# were 181.25 and topped at 234.00. 600#-700# were 174.00 and topped at 237.50. Here hay is about $180/ton alfalfa and $200/ton for grass hay. So why the lower costs of calves?
There were half dozen ads in the paper for hay the other day. Various bale sizes but anywhere from $40 to $65 per round bale. Why in the world is alfalfa less expensive in your area than grass hay?
 
kenny thomas":61dut90p said:
Sure didn't look very good today. We sold a load tele-auction today, steers weighing 850 brought $189.00. Thats .40 at least off the high last fall. Thats $340 a head difference. Gonna make a lot of difference in what the guy pays to replace them.
Might actually have more affect on the weight folks decide to sell their calves.
 
Same here. Grass hay is higher than heck. Horse people are paying up to $27. a bale for about 100 ld bale. Alfalfa will usually run a couple bucks cheaper.
My horses get what the cows eat. Some locally grown sedan.
 
Named'em Tamed'em":16grs91r said:
Grass hay is more around here due to horses.

Last time I checked there was more horses per acre in Kitsap Co. Than any other county in the USA.

I heard Langley BC had the highest density of horses in the world if I remember correctly.. And they're all useless nags for spoiled brats..
One lady I sold hay to had a "hard doer" and she fed that horse alfalfa hay AND 10 lbs of grain a day to maintain his condition!!! :roll:

I'd get more out of that grain by throwing it into the pellet stove!
 
Cattle Outlook: Slowdown at Sea Ports Causing Problems for US Meat Exporters

By Admin on January 25, 2015 at 5:14 pm

Posted In: A, Cattle, Market Information

For several weeks there has been a slowdown in activity at west coast seaports because of a dispute between the Pacific Maritime Association and the International Longshoreman and Warehouse Union. This is causing serious problems for U.S. meat exporters and has the potential to become a crisis. Containers of meat destined for export are piling up and growing old at west coast docks. Roughly 10% of U.S. beef production, 22% of pork and 20% of chicken are exported each month, with most going out from the west coast.

There were 441 million pounds of beef in cold storage at the end of December. That was up 10.9% from the month before, but down 0.4% compared to a year earlier.

Commercial cattle slaughter in 2014 totaled 30.1706 million head, down 7.1% from the year before and the lowest for any year since 1963.

Boxed beef prices dropped sharply this week. This morning the boxed beef cutout value for choice carcasses was $253.88/cwt, down $7.25 from the previous Friday, but up $15.61 from a year ago. The select carcass cutout was $249.43/cwt this morning, down $2.77 from last week, but up $12.21 from a year ago.

Fed cattle prices were sharply lower this week on moderate sales volume. Through Thursday, the 5-area average price for slaughter steers sold on a live weight basis was $159.51/cwt, down $3.63 from last week's average, but up $11.26 from a year ago. The 5 area average dressed price for steers was $256.03/cwt, down $7.47 for the week, but up $17.17 from this week last year.

Cattle slaughter this week totaled 576,000 head, up 5.5% from the week before, but down 4.0% from the comparable week last year. This was the biggest cattle slaughter total since the week ending on October 25.

The average steer dressed weight for the week ending on January 10 was 889 pounds, down 8 pounds from the week before, but up 18 pounds compared to the same week last year. This is the closest steer weights have been to a year ago since the week ending on September 6.

Feeder cattle prices at Oklahoma City were $5 to $15 lower for the second week in a row. Prices for medium and large frame #1 steers by weight group were: 400-450# $321-$339, 450-500# $295-$319.50, 500-550# $269-$296.50, 550-600# $247.50-$278, 600-650# $227-$258, 650-700# $215-$242, 700-750# $207-$225, 750-800# $206.50-$218.50, 800-900# $198-$213, 900-1000#, $191-$205/cwt.

The February live cattle futures contract today settled at $150.35, down $4.10 for the week. April fed cattle settled at $148.80/cwt, down $4.15 from the previous Friday. June fed cattle lost $3.70 this week to settle at $142.77/cwt.

The January feeder cattle contract ended the week at $213.70/cwt, down 40 cents for the week. The March feeder contract lost $3.03 this week to settle at $201.82/cwt.

Source: Ron Plain and Scott Brown, University of Missouri
 

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