How far are these feeder prices going to go??

[dieselbeef]

lots of supply driving down the prices. lotsa calfs moving toward the mrkt

 

[Aaron]

Prices real good here still. 4 heifers @ 656 for 2.59 and 1 small nervous Nellie heifer at 575 for 2.35. I was prepared for a lot worse on the 4, but wanted to clear 8k on the 5 and I did. Lots of 900-1000 lb steers in the $2300-2400 range. Few calves on offer and worth just as much as the yearlings. Kill cow and bull prices haven't missed a beat.

 

[kucala5]

We sold 12 bull calves Wednesday. Ave Wt. 530 Ave $ Head, 1155. Their ages ranged from 4 1/2 mo to 6 mo. We were really pleased in their growth. This was our first crop of calves with an Ultra Black bull. If I figured right, the prices here are down around 18% from when we sold in December '14.

 

[Caustic Burno]

TAMU economist predicted falling prices for this year and next at a workshop I attended early this year.
His numbers were 2.00 to 2.50 on prime 4 wt calves next year, he said the back 40 calves isn't going to be pretty.
The record prices for calves that wont grade are gone, and people that shucked out 3K plus for replacements on anything that
could moo are going to have a hard time getting that girl to turn a profit.
He runs a lot of cattle and is a Phd economist for A&M so far looks like his crystal ball is pretty good.

 

[Stocker Steve]

His numbers were 2.00 to 2.50 on prime 4 wt calves next year, he said the back 40 calves isn't going to be pretty.

So then what should breds be worth next year ?

 

[Caustic Burno]

His numbers were 2.00 to 2.50 on prime 4 wt calves next year, he said the back 40 calves isn't going to be pretty.

So then what should breds be worth next year ?

His numbers not mine was to not spend over 2500 to make them pencil out.
He claimed we were in the down turn in the ten year cycle.
Every since I have been doing this the prices run on a ten year cycle.
He also said if you were going to make a major Ag purchase this was the year.

 

[Stocker Steve]

He also said if you were going to make a major Ag purchase this was the year.

We should buy high, or that we will already be too broke by next year?

 

[HDRider]

He also said if you were going to make a major Ag purchase this was the year.

We should buy high, or that we will already be too broke by next year?

CB, was you talking about capital investments? If so, I agree, interest is going to go up, and maybe inflation, making equipment purchases and such more expensive.

 

[Caustic Burno]

He also said if you were going to make a major Ag purchase this was the year.

We should buy high, or that we will already be too broke by next year?

He was saying profit on the cows wasn't going to be near as pretty.
I took as we will be to broke next year.

 

[Stocker Steve]

He was saying profit on the cows wasn't going to be near as pretty.
I took as we will be to broke next year.

That does not leave many good ag options here in the arctic north,
and owning stockers in a declining market is really ugly.
So I may have to convert over to reindeer or wild rice. :nod:

 

[Jabes0623]

He also said if you were going to make a major Ag purchase this was the year.

We should buy high, or that we will already be too broke by next year?

CB, was you talking about capital investments? If so, I agree, interest is going to go up, and maybe inflation, making equipment purchases and such more expensive.

HD it's highly unlikely, though not impossible, that the FED will raise interest rates this year. The volatility we saw in the stock market this past week ruled out a Sept hike & there's nothing indicating things will improve enough between now & Dec for a hike then.

Inflation has been a part of our lives for so long now it's basically become a hidden tax.

But all this (except for the inflation part, that's a fact) is MO & it is worth what you paid for it.

 

[Jessica06]

Just out of curiosity, how many know about the risk of bringing in FMD with the fresh beef and the feral hog connection? We heard Pete Bonds speak on it last year and it was terrifying. Hardly anyone I talk to knows about it, which is just crazy to me. Our US Representative had no clue.

 

[Jessica06]

We weaned and shipped our steers Friday. We figured the risk was too high to hold onto them much longer. Like Nesikep was saying, when you figure up price per head there's not a lot of difference between a 5 weight and a 6 weight. Maybe $50-75. Around here anyway.

 

[WalnutCrest]

His numbers were 2.00 to 2.50 on prime 4 wt calves next year, he said the back 40 calves isn't going to be pretty.

So then what should breds be worth next year ?

His numbers not mine was to not spend over 2500 to make them pencil out.
He claimed we were in the down turn in the ten year cycle.
Every since I have been doing this the prices run on a ten year cycle.
He also said if you were going to make a major Ag purchase this was the year.

That last line is a VERY good thing we should all be thinking about ... We're considering a move to a place with a smaller house and more dirt and part of the reason has been just this reason.

 

[js1234]

His numbers not mine was to not spend over 2500 to make them pencil out.
He claimed we were in the down turn in the ten year cycle.
Every since I have been doing this the prices run on a ten year cycle.
He also said if you were going to make a major Ag purchase this was the year.

That last line is a VERY good thing we should all be thinking about ... We're considering a move to a place with a smaller house and more dirt and part of the reason has been just this reason.[/quote]
i do basically agree. while it wasn't the only factor in play, that line of thought did contribute to our decision to buy another ranch in Wyoming, which we entered into escrow on 2 weeks ago.

 

[Son of Butch]

Feeder cattle 113.175 the next bottom of the cycle? (but maybe I'm just an optimist)

Feeder Cattle futures for August 2009 was 88.30 low and 113.175 for the high
5 years 1.5 months later
October 9 2014 Feeder Cattle futures set their record high at 237.725 and 230.48 was the low for the month.

current...
Sept 2015 202.40
March 2016 188.00

A look back...
March '15 216.70 high 198.00 low
March '14 178.55 high 157.70 low
March '13 163.85 high 134.65 low
March '12 159.00 high 124.40 low
March '11 134.45 high 105.00 low
March '10 106.30 high 91.05 low
March '09 93.80 high 90.80 low

August '09 113.175 high 88.30 low
August '14 223.10 high 159.025 low

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Thank you for posting that Butch, it's good to keep things in perspective.

 

[dave_shelby]

This thread has been an interesting read on the ever-plaguing problem of prices.

So why is this the year to buy land? I am in the market now regardless.

 

[Stocker Steve]

So why is this the year to buy land? I am in the market now regardless.

Some folks have been worried for years about interest rates going up.
Some ranchers will have good 2014/2015 income to offset with fence & HQ depreciation on their tax return.