Holding our breath!!!

[Medic24]

Ok, leaving politics out of this,,,,,,,is anyone else here holding their breath to see the effect of the border opening, all the while we no longer have our exports to offset it?

We are, or were planning to sell over half of our herd at a graded sale in the middle of April..............but now... I am not so sure... should we rush them out now.... or hold off until we see what happens price wise? If the price falls drasticly should we hold hoping for an upturn? Do we just sit here and pray alot?

Anyone have the little crystal out and seeing the future of things to come?

Any guesses?

Only a few short weeks away ladies and gentlemen.
dumm de dumm dumm dumm.

 

[mwj]

The under 30 month beef is already here as boxed beef. There will be some knee jerk reaction when the news shows the first trucks come acrost the border but from then on it will be buisness as usual. That is my opinion for what it is worth 8)
your friend
Mike

 

[jerry27150]

as i recall some co. in u s already opened a kill plant in canada to cash in on beef that couldn't come across live but could dead( under 30 months) if this is true it shouldn't have to big of an impact on the price, but then plants in iowa are about to start hiring back people it layed of because of lack of enough beef to keep it busy. bound to drop some for a time

 

[ManyHorses]

Hi Medic24,

Back on December 27th I posted a futures trade designed to protect against just this kind of thing - and was severely criticized by some very unknowledgable folks.

My advice continues to be to hedge your cattle by either selling calls or buying puts against at least some of your herd.

Most importantly, you should immediately talk with a knowledgable commodities broker about this most imminent situation. April Live Cattle futures broke heavily last week and Feeder Cattle are likely to follow. The bottom line is there's a lot more to lose pricewise than the few bucks to buy an April put as insurance; or sell calls to hedge.

If you'd like help with the numbers you can PM me...

Hope this helps,
Richard

 

[Jake]

Hi Medic24,

Back on December 27th I posted a futures trade designed to protect against just this kind of thing - and was severely criticized by some very unknowledgable folks.

My advice continues to be to hedge your cattle by either selling calls or buying puts against at least some of your herd.

Most importantly, you should immediately talk with a knowledgable commodities broker about this most imminent situation. April Live Cattle futures broke heavily last week and Feeder Cattle are likely to follow. The bottom line is there's a lot more to lose pricewise than the few bucks to buy an April put as insurance; or sell calls to hedge.

If you'd like help with the numbers you can PM me...

Hope this helps,
Richard

I agree with the concept your putting forth Richard, but the problem with that is that with the futures market being as volatile as it's been the past 2 months NOBODY wants to hedge something out... all they can talk about is the April/ May boards and bicker about how your screwing them over....

 

[ollie]

Looks like somebody left the gate open.

 

[Workinonit Farm]

Just waiting to see what happens.

Katherine

 

[ollie]

Katherine,
I have a cousin that talks all the time about anything. She doesn't have to know anything about the subject. If she ever does no one ever encourages her to talk because they have already heard her plenty. Don't encourage him.

 

[frenchie]

Truth is guys it will take awhile to rebuild the trucking Industry to the point, it was at before b.S.E..a lot of those guys went under,elsewhere . It will take some doing to convince those same or new people to get involved in that industry.

 

[WORANCH]

Truth is guys it will take awhile to rebuild the trucking Industry to the point, it was at before b.S.E..a lot of those guys went under,elsewhere . It will take some doing to convince those same or new people to get involved in that industry.

Don't worry the packers will send trucks after your cheap cattle.

 

[Muratic]

Truth is guys it will take awhile to rebuild the trucking Industry to the point, it was at before b.S.E..a lot of those guys went under,elsewhere . It will take some doing to convince those same or new people to get involved in that industry.

Hire Cattle Annie ans Bez's wife!!!

 

[frenchie]

Truth is guys it will take awhile to rebuild the trucking Industry to the point, it was at before b.S.E..a lot of those guys went under,elsewhere . It will take some doing to convince those same or new people to get involved in that industry.

Don't worry the packers will send trucks after your cheap cattle.

Maybe so, can,t pay too good without a backhaul. :stop: Maybe they will be loaded with American calves on the way up.Cdn slaughter cattle on the way down..Or rather cattle of mixed origin on the way down. ;-)

 

[Wewild]

We aren't too worried. We seen the lows and are capable of handling them again. Had a great run lately. If it opens we may be worse for a while but it won't be for long.

 

[frenchie]

Truth is guys it will take awhile to rebuild the trucking Industry to the point, it was at before b.S.E..a lot of those guys went under,elsewhere . It will take some doing to convince those same or new people to get involved in that industry.

Hire Cattle Annie ans Bez's wife!!!

Thats a great Idea ,But will BEZ stand for it :lol: :lol:

 

[TheBullLady]

We've been pretty much anticipating the border opening anyway... it's not like it would be a big surprise. We've sold all our calves that were old enough and culled our cow herd really deep, so let 'em come.

 

[tapeworm]

We've been pretty much anticipating the border opening anyway... it's not like it would be a big surprise. We've sold all our calves that were old enough and culled our cow herd really deep, so let 'em come.

There you go Bull Lady....no big surprise...had plenty of time to prepare for it and still cash in on a good market. Dont see why somebody is "holding their breath" waiting to see what happens...understand the possibilities and be ready to deal with em when they happen.Roll with the punches...if you cant do that get advice from one of the friendly Canadians...they sure as heck know how to roll with the punches

 

[Medic24]

The big problem is that most of our calves are not at optimum sale weight, still in the 200-350 range.........our yearly April sale is our usual target dtes for our calves, it's just that this year it will be in the wake of any adjustments the market will make.......As always.........we will roll with the market.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Nope, not worried about it if your going to be in a commodities biz you are going to have highs and lows. Can't be worse than the 70's or 99 drought when we gave cows away.

 

[CattleAnnie]

Hey Muratic,

Thanks but no thanks, amigo! I've loaded enough liners to last me a lifetime - hate being inside those tin coffins....there's just no safe place to go and I'm not nimble enough to scale the walls anymore. I'm hanging in till after the calves are done arriving, and then I'm hoping for a nice, cushy oil-patch job (haha tongue-in-cheek)...only trouble is that by then it's bound to be break-up. Oh, long as I don't have to drive a school bus, I suppose.

Sure hate to see the border opening hurt you guys. There's more than enough hurt in our own cattle industry up here for the entire continent without spreading that particular joy. If the Canadian gov't had been a little more behind the people that wanted to up the kill capacity and open new slaughter houses earlier rather than singing the "Border Will Be Open Soon, Boys" song we'd have been a lot farther ahead, and not all bottle-necked up and needing to send fats south to be processed...can't even mention the cull cows or bologna bulls. As it is, the upped kill capacity should lessen the doom and gloomers' 'flood' of cattle report.

Anyway, best of luck to all. Sell high and buy low. If I had your prices I'd be culling my herd mighty hard. Mind you, thanks to BSE, mine's culled so hard there sure hardly isn't half as many to calve out this year. Oh well, the bright side is that I'll be done babysitting the girls earlier. Then I can get back to a normal bedtime, instead of being the nighthawk.

Take care.

 

[D.R. Cattle]

I see what buyers are paying through video auction and salebarns and get a positive attitude about what will happen. Could be dead wrong, but those guys seem to have the most foresight about what will happen and they're paying the highest prices ever right now.