KNERSIE":1s3zr40o said:
I'm curious how Holdens rank their bull offering.
Ned Jr, George or anyone else who is in the know, who do Holdens think are their top bulls in this year's consignment?
Their sale order is here:
http://holdenherefords.com/pdf/2009 SALE ORDER.pdf
8203 starts the sale.
It's been my experience that they generally line the bulls up according to how they see them. Last year the two top sellers were in the ring #1 and #2, if I remember correctly. My pick, last year, was the second bull in the ring, who ended up the second top seller, but my second choice sold way down in the sale order.
The year before, my first choice,based on videos and carcass data, sold down in the #10 to #15 spot and the top-selling bull wasn't even in my own top 20, but I think he did start the sale.
Ironically, Jim Coley and some fellow breeders have ended up buying both of my top picks in the last two sales.
The uniformity of quality runs so deep in these bulls that it's easy to see where there would be disagreement. No doubt, the pictures and videos don't show everything and aren't foolproof. There is no substitute for being there and looking at the bulls in person. Many times, ultimately, the best breeding bull comes from back in the pack anyway. I tend to focus more on visual appeal and the scans. I know others look more at the EPDs. And there are a number of dedicated Line 1 breeders who have seen virtually every animal in the 3 generation pedigrees of these bulls and know them that well.
I thought the 7026 bull was a pretty easy "top pick" last year, but he ended up as the #2 bull to sell and the #2 top seller. I think 8203 is even an easier "top pick" this year. Compared to the 7026 bull that sold last year, 8203 has more strength of top, depth of body, and he has that "look" of being the easy-keeping kind. His scans and scrotal measurement just add to the package. If he proves out to be around breed average, or even slightly above, in BW, the other things he may excel in more than trump that as far as I'm concerned.
And to bring up his "unimpressive" maternal calving ease EPD, when he hasn't yet even had a calf born, much less daughters going into production, is so ridiculous that it's laughable, as far as I'm concerned. If you follow EPDs and their progression, you know that number can change radically once daughters actually go into production - both ways! If you're "betting" on that number any time beforehand you'd be better off at a roulette wheel.
I'm still searching for that PERFECT bull, but as a
prospect 8203 brings as much as any young bull I've seen come along. I realize that I'm not as concerned about BW as others are, but I've not had any problems in that area, so far. As far as the EPDs go, theoretically, 8203 would improve the BW EPDs of 90% of my cow herd. Since I don't believe in the accuracy of EPDs, except in the case of
highly proven bulls, I tend to believe real world experience rather than the theoretical numbers. It'll be interesting to see how 8203 ultimately does as a breeding bull. I'm normally not inclined to use unproven bulls by AI, but I'm going to be very tempted to try 8203 if I get a chance.
George
