Hay prices not going down?

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I went to the feed store today and saw a few small square bales sitting there and asked how much he was getting on them. $11 was the answer. I said I'll be glad when the hay prices go back to normal. He said they won't. He said as an example gasoline. It went up and hasn't gone down. (He's not counting a few cents here and there). Basically saying that once something like that goes up it won't go back down. I'm thinking it will take a long time to go down. What do ya'll think?

By the way, I did apologize for my blown out britches last time. He said he didn't notice. Good man.
 
In the last 30 years, this is the 3rd time that hay prices have gone to the level they are at this year. They were higher at the scource the other 2 times, they are this high this year due to transportation costs. Even with them being this high two other times, 3 years ago you could get all the hay you wanted for 12-15 dollars per bale for 4x6 bales and 5-8 dollars for 1 year old hay. 3 years ago, I had a guy give me 150 bales of 2 year old hay if I would give him 10 dollars per bale of current year hay. So, my thinking is yes, hay will be cheap again. All will depend on supply and demand. There will be alot of people cut hay instead of run cattle and when the weather allows a great hay crop, there will be too much hay.
 
stocky":3fudh42b said:
In the last 30 years, this is the 3rd time that hay prices have gone to the level they are at this year. They were higher at the scource the other 2 times, they are this high this year due to transportation costs. Even with them being this high two other times, 3 years ago you could get all the hay you wanted for 12-15 dollars per bale for 4x6 bales and 5-8 dollars for 1 year old hay. 3 years ago, I had a guy give me 150 bales of 2 year old hay if I would give him 10 dollars per bale of current year hay. So, my thinking is yes, hay will be cheap again. All will depend on supply and demand. There will be alot of people cut hay instead of run cattle and when the weather allows a great hay crop, there will be too much hay.

Sure hope you are right!

GMN
 
I don't forsee the price of hay ever getting back to the prices od several years ago. The price increase is not just related to the price of gas, all other input costs have gone up.(fertilizer, equipment, labor, taxes, diesel, and parts)
 
In good hay years proices will go down. But we'll never see the low prices of quality hay from the past. Supply and demand will set the market, but production costs will dictate quality and minimum prices.

dun
 
Stocky, you are exactly right. A couple of good wet years and there will be hay everywhere again. There were guys putting up hay last year that were not even covering their expenses when they sold it and it will be that way again. Supply and demand will dictate the price of hay. Just my opinion based on history.
 
All of the other expenses went up and that was due to increased energy prices. Hay went up do to increased demand and lower production. Next year we will see higher than average prices for hay on a National level due to the hay ground that will be planted into Corn. Most other crops will see the acreage crunch and prices will go up accordingly. Cattle and hogs will feel the crunch in a negative way and the feeding sector will have to adapt to the high prices and move from there. In short if you rely heavily on hay in your cattle enterprise get ready to take a beating for the next few years. If you raise cattle and hay it might be a good time to sell the cows and put up even more hay. If it is profit you seek.
 
I think there are a lot of issues going on with hay...just like what has happened with coffee, sugar, gas, diesel, etc.

In our area, hay prices doubled in one year. However, diesel, labor, fertilizer, water in all probably didn't increase production costs overall 100%. I feel a lot of price increase was basically supply and demand. It would take a LOT of fuel and fertilizer cost increases to increase price of a round bale from $50 to $100. I think again, a lot reflects supply and demand and a touch of "greed" with hay suppliers on jumping on the bandwagon while "life is good."
 
If the blown out britches don't save you at least $1 /bale, call me. BR-549.
First you have to look at land rentals. Corn rents are up, ergo pasture rents are up. If it will make 90 bu corn, it likely pencils a profit. The hay end is much more speculative, based on cattle prices about 1.5 yr out there. Whew!
 
Hay producers have had a taste of those nice high prices and used higher fuel prices to get them there. They won't want to go back even as fuel pices come down. If you want cheaper hay you had better grow it yourself.

If you buy hay at 120 a ton and feed it to your cows vs. growing hay that you could have sold for 120 a ton but fed it to the cows. How is it any cheaper? seems like hay is worth the same no matter who grows it.
 
My point is that hay has a fair market value whether you grow it or not. If you can't be profitable with bought hay then you aren't going to be profitable with homegrown hay. The latter way is making money off hay and saying the cows earned it. This same logic is why thousands of people lose money on their cows and think that they made money. Poor cost accountability and poor business skills.
 
Up here the big growers are shipping loads south and getting $168/ton for it. My usual supplier still delivers right to the barn for $120 for high quality alfalfa that tea=sted at 20% last year.
Think I'll pre-buy some of his second cut this year cause he is cutting production of some of his fields..
DMc
 
Seems like the ones complaining most about hay prices are the ones that have decided it is cheaper to buy hay than to buy equipment and do it themselves. JMO :)
 
We are planning on sprigging at the other place. Probably only 20 acres to start out with. I've mentioned buying equipment to bale our own (once we get enough) but husband thought maintaining equipment would be too costly. Not sure about that now that hay prices are through the roof. Also thought about just having enough cows for the grass and not feeding hay. Our cows do so much better on grass.
 
i guess hay will keep keeping on being perty high when everbody starts using the corn to make gas with.
 
Around here prices have steady gone up throughout the winter as hay gets in shorter supply. There is no more cost to what they cut last year now than there was then but suppliers know they can jack the price up. I guess it's called business. Round rolls of "only decent" horse hay = $75, junk cow hay sitting in water = $40. I'll bale my own from now on. I don't see prices coming down in the next few years, at least until everyone fills up barns again.
 

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