Forbes article

Help Support CattleToday:

bball

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 25, 2015
Messages
3,484
Reaction score
10
Location
Indiana
Forbes has recently posted a beef and dairy piece...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/hankcardello/2019/09/30/why-the-beef-and-dairy-industries-are-on-a-cow-path-to-oblivion/#5039c12774e9
 
TennesseeTuxedo said:
Thank you Captain Sunshine. This is just what I hoped to read about this morning.

Sorry amigo. It's definitely an agenda driven piece but it goes to show how the industry is under attack.
 
IMO. Economics will be the downfall, not the environmental impacts. Consumers are simply unwilling to pay the price to support the pyramid:

Producer
Feeder
Slaughter
Packer
Retailer.

As we have seen with coal. When the US started producing huge quantities of natural gas, the economics of coal do not pencil out.

TT. Beef will be largely imported from countries that can do it on the cheap. Just like making clothes. That has all gone overseas.
 
Stocker Steve said:
Bright Raven" Beef will be largely imported from countries that can do it on the cheap. [/quote said:
Why is this not occuring today ?

US Producers are willing to work on the cheap. Like myself. They are growing old and tired. When we are out of the way - it will not be long - there is no one stupid enough to replace us.
 
There is only one producer in Robertson County, Kentucky that is self-sustaining on beef production. Everyone else has other forms of subsistence. This operator runs over 300 commercial cows and markets at Bluegrass Stockyards in Lexington. Yet, their operation is only "self-sustaining". To provide meaning to that: They don't make enough to provide the opportunity for his son to live off the farm. His son is the Ag teacher at Robertson County High School. The patriarch is a friend of mine. He told me the operation only sustains their lifestyle.

The patriarch and I are separated by only a few days in age. We are both 69. When the patriarch dies and his health is waning, his son could take over but would be difficult.

I suspect much of America is like Robertson County. 99 % of the beef is produced by hobbyist. They hold off the farm jobs that underwrite their cattle operation. Most only have 20 cows. Most are in their 60s. There are some farmers who are supported by agriculture but most are crop farmers and run a herd of cows as a supplement. Most say the cows barely break even. When these guys are gone, there will be a void. Who will fill it? Would you recommend this vocation to an enterprising youngster? I don't! I tell them to get an education and prepare for a future in science and technology.
 
Bright Raven said:
There is only one producer in Robertson County, Kentucky that is self-sustaining on beef production. Everyone else has other forms of subsistence. This operator runs over 300 commercial cows and markets at Bluegrass Stockyards in Lexington. Yet, their operation is only "self-sustaining". To provide meaning to that: They don't make enough to provide the opportunity for his son to live off the farm. His son is the Ag teacher at Robertson County High School. The patriarch is a friend of mine. He told me the operation only sustains their lifestyle.

The patriarch and I are separated by only a few days in age. We are both 69. When the patriarch dies and his health is waning, his son could take over but would be difficult.

I suspect much of America is like Robertson County. 99 % of the beef is produced by hobbyist. They hold off the farm jobs that underwrite their cattle operation. Most only have 20 cows. Most are in their 60s. There are some farmers who are supported by agriculture but most are crop farmers and run a herd of cows as a supplement. Most say the cows barely break even. When these guys are gone, there will be a void. Who will fill it? Would you recommend this vocation to an enterprising youngster? I don't! I tell them to get an education and prepare for a future in science and technology.
When this happens there will not be as much grain for animal production required. Also as electric cars gain popularity what will happen to the ethanol industry and the fuel. Also read an article that people in the auto production and parts were concerned that an electric vehicle would require less parts and last longer there fore less jobs. Any one need any buggy whips. What will this do to land prices. Maybe the younger generation are looking for ways to make their life simpler or maybe it will be a have to case.
 
The American consumer has proven time and again that they are not willing to pay higher prices to maintain production and industry in this country. It's a significant factor as to why so many companies close or transition to overseas production. Textile, steel, automotive, heck even Eastman Kodak split for China back in the early 2000s. Food is one expense the American consumer has been conditioned to believe they absolutely should not have to pay proportional cost for. Its why there isnt enough money in dairy, beef and most other agriculture enterprises for everyone involved to get what should be a fair slice of the pie. The pie is about the size of a biscuit. When folks are eating ribeye in a restaurant for $12 on the lunch special, makes it impossible for everyone involved in the chain of beef production/consumption to turn a reasonable profit. Many in that chain get short changed. Same is true of milk, pork, chicken, etc
 
Interesting read, as well as comments. I "used" to think that the American beef producer would always have a place. I no longer feel that way. The tide of public opinion will continue to turn against agriculture. Meat will be imported in larger and larger and quantities, from countries that can do it cheaper. It's just that simple. The people producing now in the US, are operating at or below the break even point. I completely understand, that cowmen love it, and don't see themselves ever quiting. One thing or the other, will get the current producers, and they won't be replaced.
 
The one thing that baffles me the most is why anyone would think of outsourcing our food supply by depending on foreign countries to supply our food it just seems crazy. For one thing it seems to me it would be a matter of national security. We as a nation need to have and maintain as much of our food production here in country as possible.
Not to mention the impact that the beef industry has on the local economies of towns all across the nation. To loose that would certainly take a lot from communities. Folks these communities are already bleeding folks dry with taxes and fees. I shudder to think how it would be with much more lost revenue. Agribusiness accounts for a lot more than most realize.
 
Ky hills said:
The one thing that baffles me the most is why anyone would think of outsourcing our food supply by depending on foreign countries to supply our food it just seems crazy. For one thing it seems to me it would be a matter of national security. We as a nation need to have and maintain as much of our food production here in country as possible.
Not to mention the impact that the beef industry has on the local economies of towns all across the nation. To loose that would certainly take a lot from communities. Folks these communities are already bleeding folks dry with taxes and fees. I shudder to think how it would be with much more lost revenue. Agribusiness accounts for a lot more than most realize.

I agree 100%. I also live in a town, that had a thriving clothing manufacturing industry. It wen't to old Mexico. People wont to save money, they don't care who it cost. The Gov. has proven many times, they don't care about the little man or callused hands.
 
Bright Raven said:
Stocker Steve said:
Bright Raven" Beef will be largely imported from countries that can do it on the cheap. [/quote said:
Why is this not occuring today ?

US Producers are willing to work on the cheap. Like myself. They are growing old and tired. When we are out of the way - it will not be long - there is no one stupid enough to replace us.

There are some tariffs on some countries if they choose to import beef into the US.
 
Bright Raven said:
There is only one producer in Robertson County, Kentucky that is self-sustaining on beef production. Everyone else has other forms of subsistence. This operator runs over 300 commercial cows and markets at Bluegrass Stockyards in Lexington. Yet, their operation is only "self-sustaining". To provide meaning to that: They don't make enough to provide the opportunity for his son to live off the farm. His son is the Ag teacher at Robertson County High School. The patriarch is a friend of mine. He told me the operation only sustains their lifestyle.

The key word here is producer.

How many folks in the county make a living off selling inputs or services to cattle producers ?
Or are margin operators making a living off calves produced by others ?
 
Stocker Steve said:
Bright Raven said:
There is only one producer in Robertson County, Kentucky that is self-sustaining on beef production. Everyone else has other forms of subsistence. This operator runs over 300 commercial cows and markets at Bluegrass Stockyards in Lexington. Yet, their operation is only "self-sustaining". To provide meaning to that: They don't make enough to provide the opportunity for his son to live off the farm. His son is the Ag teacher at Robertson County High School. The patriarch is a friend of mine. He told me the operation only sustains their lifestyle.

The key word here is producer.

How many folks in the county make a living off selling inputs or services to cattle producers ?
Or are margin operators making a living off calves produced by others ?

In Robertson County Kentucky, I know of one operation that is making a living solely in the cattle industry. I outlined them above.

The "real key phase" is making a living. The cattle industry perhaps contributes to making a living but I only know of one producer that makes a living on cattle. That was the essence of my point about the gentleman mentioned above.

I would only be speculating but certainly the cattle industry contributes to the economy in the way of services, equipment sales, supplies, etc. If I had to guess, it is probably a small contribution. Most of the off-the-farm income is related to industry (i.e., 3M is a big employer in an adjoining county), energy (power plants, Columbia Gas), government (state and local mostly), etc.

The cattle industry has value and there will be an effort to keep it viable. However, we profess to be capitalist, at the end of the day, the market should rule.

On a broader view, one looks at the history of economics in the US. First, subsistence farming, trapping and hunting. Then, industrialization. Then, deficit spending and a service economy. Now, we are headed into a phase when science and technology will dampen the need for human labor and services. Just today, UPS got approval to use drones to fly cargo. Artificial intelligence is replacing humans and the AI does it without all the emotions. One has to wonder when humans are going to become obsolete or at a minimum, what do you do with a burdensome population that has nothing to do.
 
I think the silent majority of people won't give up their beef easily. We can do it better and with less damage to the environment. Importing beef means more burning rainforests.
 
Rest easy cattlemen. Ag is an area with consistent failures from trying to apply AI. The excuse was that there are too many variables... :lol:
 
Bright Raven" I would only be speculating but certainly the cattle industry contributes to the economy in the way of services said:
I do not know what the ag wealth building issue is in Kentucky. Is everyone running 20 head on a continuously grazed pasture?

We have 3 multimillionaires in the area that made it thru auctionering, sales barn ownership, and flipping cattle. Bunch of other millionaires who are land barons. Several who raise (legal) edible crops. Two who run implement dealerships. One who runs a repair shop. And so on.
 

Latest posts

Top