Feeder Steer/Heifer prices plunging....?

[OklaBrangusBreeder]

At our local Oklahoma City Stockyards, Feeder Steer/Heifer prices have dropped about 11% the last two weeks. Since I've yet to take this years calf crop to market, I'm trying to figure out what to do.

Is this recent price drop a temporary over reaction to drought / commodity prices, or is the market truly adjusting to changing conditions that will prevail through the balance of July, August and maybe into the Fall?

Financially, I don't think it makes sense to winter the calves in this part of the country and sell next spring. So, I guess my plans are to sell within the next 90-days. So, should I take my calves to market this weekend or do I try to hold into the Fall hoping for some price recovery? What do I do?

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Hold of until September if you can.

 

[Isomade]

If there is any ear on em I'd want em gone by August 10th. Eared cattle take a hit after that.

 

[Limomike]

Even an 11% drop is still better than what we HAD been getting in years past. I know its not what you probably planned on, but typically we see a drop in the summer months.. I plan on selling a few in a week or so, just so I can keep more grass, and keep my momma cows in good shape.

 

[calfbuyer]

I think its a little bit of an over reaction to the corn prices. They always say that it is way worse than it is, I do hear that it is pretty bad though. I don't see how the price would just plunge, I think that they'll come down some, but they always do this time of year. Also, overall cattle numbers on a national level are lower than they have been since the 50's. There is a strong demand for beef and low numbers, as limomike said, they will still sell higher than they have in the past.
I have actually been buying some light weight calves recently, I have plenty of grass and won't have to feed them. They are turned out on fields that i will plant in wheat this fall, we have gotten good rains this year and the johnson grass is chest deep in the fields. I figure i'll keep em till about mid sept. and sell em. I may be making a huge mistake, but we'll see.

 

[inbredredneck]

Also, overall cattle numbers on a national level are lower than they have been since the 50's. There is a strong demand for beef and low numbers, as limomike said, they will still sell higher than they have in the past.

Numbers are down, but production is not.

 

[kenny thomas]

calfbuyer, I will do like you are doing but I will probably carry them on till December or January, maybe even spring. I think light weight calves will be a bargain this fall. If the wheat stays as high as it is now im not sure a lot of farmers will put light calves on the wheat either.

 

[crimsoncrazy]

We sell at OKC but we sell them off the wheat pasture in February.

 

[highgrit]

It's a scam by the farmers and stockyards to get more tax dollars. The big dogs know how to play the game.
The biggest and richest farmers get the most in farm subsidies. It's all about how much money they can steal
from the goverment or should I say the taxpayer. Disaster relief is a ripoff of our tax dollars.

 

[inbredredneck]

It's a scam by the farmers and stockyards to get more tax dollars. The big dogs know how to play the game.
The biggest and richest farmers get the most in farm subsidies. It's all about how much money they can steal
from the goverment or should I say the taxpayer. Disaster relief is a ripoff of our tax dollars.

Tell us all how the stockyards are going to get more tax dollars.

 

[Anonymous]

It's a scam by the farmers and stockyards to get more tax dollars. The big dogs know how to play the game.
The biggest and richest farmers get the most in farm subsidies. It's all about how much money they can steal
from the goverment or should I say the taxpayer. Disaster relief is a ripoff of our tax dollars.

Tell us all how the stockyards are going to get more tax dollars.

Stockyards can make a claim of damaged business/lost revenue due to drought just like a producer can.

 

[inbredredneck]

Stockyards can make a claim of damaged business/lost revenue due to drought just like a producer can.

That is something I have never in my life heard of. A stockyard has increased revenue during drought, not decreased revenue. I have never seen a short run of cattle at a salebarn in a drought area during the drought, never.

 

[highgrit]

I should of said feedlot instead of stockyard I guess. The price of feed is so high we can't make it, we're going to have to start laying workers off. Going to hurt the whole community, lots of people depend on us to supply them food.
Yada,Yada same old B.S. We need disaster relief money too.

 

[inbredredneck]

I should of said feedlot instead of stockyard I guess. The price of feed is so high we can't make it, we're going to have to start laying workers off. Going to hurt the whole community, lots of people depend on us to supply them food.
Yada,Yada same old B.S. We need disaster relief money too.

Unfortunatly high prices hurt everyone, and I meen everyone.

 

[Anonymous]

Stockyards can make a claim of damaged business/lost revenue due to drought just like a producer can.

That is something I have never in my life heard of. A stockyard has increased revenue during drought, not decreased revenue. I have never seen a short run of cattle at a salebarn in a drought area during the drought, never.

But I'll bet the numbers following a drought are down at the barn. Not sure
Once a disaster is declared almost anyone can make a halfway feasible claim and receive benefits.

 

[inbredredneck]

Stockyards can make a claim of damaged business/lost revenue due to drought just like a producer can.

That is something I have never in my life heard of. A stockyard has increased revenue during drought, not decreased revenue. I have never seen a short run of cattle at a salebarn in a drought area during the drought, never.

But I'll bet the numbers following a drought are down at the barn. Not sure
Once a disaster is declared almost anyone can make a halfway feasible claim and receive benefits.

After the drought, if numbers go down, cattle start coming in from other areas of the country to make up the difference, cattle follow the money.

 

[Anonymous]

Hmm. I would guess then that lower prices during drought are made up for by higher volume?
Since the profits would be based off commission I can see where it would a wash. Or close to it

 

[Anonymous]

Didn't some barns in Texas close after the drought?

 

[inbredredneck]

Hmm. I would guess then that lower prices during drought are made up for by higher volume?
Since the profits would be based off commission I can see where it would a wash. Or close to it

Commission based off sale prices have all but disappeared here. It takes just as long to sell 50,000# of $80 cattle as it does 50,000# of $110 cattle. It took some time but even the sale barns figured out they were screwing themselves.

 

[OklaBrangusBreeder]

Well, I went ahead and sold a trailer load in OKC last Monday (Aug 6) and was pretty pleased...

My steers weighed in the 660 lb range and sold for a few cents short of $900 a head. The heifers were a little lighter, but still brought $795 a piece. Best prices I've ever gotten for a calf crop.