Feeder futures

[BC]

I am skeptical of the Wagyu market with the way our economy is shaping up. There is talk about more of the end meat winding up in the grind and people not eating out as much. Also some of the cattle on niche markets like no hormones are finding resistance because of the higher costs to consumers.

As to the cost of bull, I have used the old rule of thumb of what my 5 best steers calves bring or 3 good bred cows. You mentioned 44 Farms and the costs on their bulls. Have you ever watched or followed a Superior sale? They will mention that the calves are sired by 44 Farms or another reputation breeder. The buyers perceive there is value in cattle with known genetics. Remember, when selling cattle it is all about perception whether you are selling a truckload or one at a time. An order buyer sitting in a sale barn putting together a group of calves one at a time must 1) does the calf fit an order I have; 2) determine the sex (steer, bull or heifer) some orders can be steer/bull and others steers only; 3) estimate the quality of the calf; 4) estimate the weight to see if the calf fits the order (at most Texas sales, cattle are weighed after they sell); 5) is it the right color. It is all about perception and has to be done in 8 to 12 seconds.

 

[Dave]

Here with ring scales and selling groups they will run in 20-30 calves. Within a few seconds the buyers will say one out. Try to pick out which one and why. They will run the ones sold out leaving the one in the ring. With 30 in the ring they look like peas in a pod. By itself I generally can see why they cut it but the buyers do it in just a few seconds while it is mixed in with a group of very similar calves.

 

[Brute 23]

I would be leasing a bull in your situation. Even with the Wagyu guy providing a bull it the perfect time to sinc up.

It will always be hard to keep a mature bull happy with that number of females.

 

[Ebenezer]

Appreciate the comments, but would suggest turning the hobby into more of a pedagogical exercise in efficiency and care for the earth. If you are doing it anyway, might as well 'do as unto the Lord' or 'be excellent'. Making money is not bad, either, and well-cared-for cattle also increase the value of your land, at least in Texas.

And I really admire the folks that have a 45 day calving period. Speaks well to the condition of their cattle and operation. They seem to drive nicer vehicles than me as well, if you catch my drift.

Just 'keeping cattle alive' sounds a bit scary. I'm not convinced that low-stocked ranch cattle need all the vaccinations and other vet care espoused, but do think cattle should look good and be healthy. If the producing cows fall below 4.5 BCS in this market/weather, I'd feel a bit uncomfortable if the producer said, 'I'm doing a good job in just keeping them alive." With the weather and prices, most cattle should be in good condition this year.

How far is the sale barn from you? That is a point of interest to me. I can take more in one trip to save miles and time if they are equal in age and type. That is one of the few costs you can actually control: less mile = less cost.

 

[rocfarm]

I would be leasing a bull in your situation. Even with the Wagyu guy providing a bull it the perfect time to sinc up.

It will always be hard to keep a mature bull happy with that number of females.

The Wagyu bull will be leased if I do it. 60 day calving window. I'll,just buy replacements each year. Figure I'll cull two and add two or so.

Also, I asked the Wagyu program coordinator if they had a program to lease angus bulls instead. He said no.

 

[rocfarm]

How far is the sale barn from you? That is a point of interest to me. I can take more in one trip to save miles and time if they are equal in age and type. That is one of the few costs you can actually control: less mile = less cost.

My sale barn trip is a bit interesting. I drive 50 minutes to my college buddy's place, take him and his wife out to eat, borrow his trailer, head back to the farm, load up, drive 30 minutes back the other way to the sale barn, then take the trailer back another day that week. Figure the whole process costs about $200. But I don't just do the trip because of the sale, so not sure how to calculate that. I'd go see him a few times each year using the same vehicle regardless. And he has a nice, new trailer.

If I only calculate from the farm to a decent auction, it's only 30 minutes. Not bad, really. Probably say, 9 gallons of gas, round trip? I use a Ford 2003 F150. Figure about 7 miles/gallon when pulling a heavy trailer.

 

[rocfarm]

I am skeptical of the Wagyu market with the way our economy is shaping up. There is talk about more of the end meat winding up in the grind and people not eating out as much. Also some of the cattle on niche markets like no hormones are finding resistance because of the higher costs to consumers.

As to the cost of bull, I have used the old rule of thumb of what my 5 best steers calves bring or 3 good bred cows. You mentioned 44 Farms and the costs on their bulls. Have you ever watched or followed a Superior sale? They will mention that the calves are sired by 44 Farms or another reputation breeder. The buyers perceive there is value in cattle with known genetics. Remember, when selling cattle it is all about perception whether you are selling a truckload or one at a time. An order buyer sitting in a sale barn putting together a group of calves one at a time must 1) does the calf fit an order I have; 2) determine the sex (steer, bull or heifer) some orders can be steer/bull and others steers only; 3) estimate the quality of the calf; 4) estimate the weight to see if the calf fits the order (at most Texas sales, cattle are weighed after they sell); 5) is it the right color. It is all about perception and has to be done in 8 to 12

All good points. But can't sell ten calves on superior. And haven't heard of a program with angus/continental-like cattle where I could join other's groups except for Beaver County Stockyards.

 

[rocfarm]

Here with ring scales and selling groups they will run in 20-30 calves. Within a few seconds the buyers will say one out. Try to pick out which one and why. They will run the ones sold out leaving the one in the ring. With 30 in the ring they look like peas in a pod. By itself I generally can see why they cut it but the buyers do it in just a few seconds while it is mixed in with a group of very similar calves.

They still don't do that here, but I think I would prefer it.

 

[rocfarm]

I am skeptical of the Wagyu market with the way our economy is shaping up. There is talk about more of the end meat winding up in the grind and people not eating out as much. Also some of the cattle on niche markets like no hormones are finding resistance because of the higher costs to consumers.

I am skeptical of every market, but get your point. If the program doesn't guarantee to buy the calves, I'd get corriente prices at the sale barn. That would hurt. Definitely don't want any Wagyu blood in my cows. Their cull price is not good.

 

[BC]

I know of 3 barns that have co-mingled pre-condition sales in Texas that let small producers get some of the advantages of selling in larger lots. Sulphur Springs Livestock, Buffalo Livestock and Navasota Livestock Auction all have these several times a year. You can watch on-line at https://liveauctions.tv/ Go to each barns website to find the health requirements.

You can also watch Buffalo and Navasota weekly sales at that website. It is harder to tell about the cattle on-line than when you are at the sale but at the pre-conditioned sales the buyers depend and trust the auction's description of the cattle.

 

[rocfarm]

I am skeptical of every market, but get your point. If the program doesn't guarantee to buy the calves, I'd get corriente prices at the sale barn. That would hurt. Definitely don't want any Wagyu blood in my cows. Their cull price is not good.

Thanks for the info. Both more than a 6 hour round trip. With a trailer, that'd be more. I go pretty slow on market day. Don't' want to have a wreck. I'm thinking San Saba is probably the best option if I want the best prices in central Texas, unless I can get contracted, that is.

 

[anewcomer]

Can we get back on the topic of this thread? A lot going on in the market the last 10 days that we need to be paying attention to. Help me here, Kenny!!!

 

[kenny thomas]

Can we get back on the topic of this thread? A lot going on in the market the last 10 days that we need to be paying attention to. Help me here, Kenny!!!

Im lost as to what's been going on. Futures down a lot. Actual sales not bad for loads. Anything off color, fat, anything they can cheapen up. Knoxville TN yesterday quoted feeder steers 15 to 30 cheaper.
Slaughter cows higher every day. Lots of cows gonna be killed.

 

[MurraysMutts]

Im lost as to what's been going on. Futures down a lot. Actual sales not bad for loads. Anything off color, fat, anything they can cheapen up. Knoxville TN yesterday quoted feeder steers 15 to 30 cheaper.
Slaughter cows higher every day. Lots of cows gonna be killed.

That'll make heifers worth more!

Maybe.....

Do u think prices are gonna continue to drop? Stay steady? Go back up?

I'm thinking here, they are bound to rise about the time folks get wheat in the ground.

I get that this about feeder cattle, but if they go down, calf prices are bound to do the same.

 

[kenny thomas]

Stockyard sales pretty much never go up in September and October. Im going to buy a few thin 3wt bull calves. Hopefully sell them in January. Why January you might ask. I can take them off this years taxes and gamble the price will be higher in January.

 

[MurraysMutts]

Stockyard sales pretty much never go up in September and October. Im going to buy a few thin 3wt bull calves. Hopefully sell them in January. Why January you might ask. I can take them off this years taxes and gamble the price will be higher in January.

I've told myself the same thing about the calves I bought to graze! If they don't rebound in November, I'll wait til after the first of the year for the same reasons.

Have plenty of hay! And feed is cheap enough. They'll just get bigger!

 

[kenny thomas]

Corn and soybeans are getting cheaper every day so should be cheaper feed.

 

[anewcomer]

Thanks for the responses!

 

[midTN_Brangusman]

Does anyone know when August 2025 feeder cattle futures will start trading? I have a couple of loads of lightweight calves I have been buying and want to lock in before this thing tanks.

 

[kenny thomas]

Does anyone know when August 2025 feeder cattle futures will start trading? I have a couple of loads of lightweight calves I have been buying and want to lock in before this thing tanks.

Someone smarter than me will have to answer this. May is the latest i can find.